The Everest: Idol Horse Power Rankings (Final)
Ka Ying Rising draws wide and David Hayes is happy with it, Headwall climbs as the rain sets in, and our experts deliver their last word before Saturday.
The Everest: Idol Horse Power Rankings (Final)
Ka Ying Rising draws wide and David Hayes is happy with it, Headwall climbs as the rain sets in, and our experts deliver their last word before Saturday.
15 October, 2026The Everest field is final and the barriers are drawn and Ka Ying Rising will start from gate 11 in his bid for a second straight win in the world’s richest turf race. No horse has won from that gate in nine Everests, but David Hayes is happy with it. The Randwick 1200m starts from a chute, so Zac Purton has about 600m to cross, against barely 200m at Sha Tin.
The rain is the bigger worry. Randwick took about 64mm overnight into Wednesday. Headwall, unbeaten in two starts on heavy ground, is the big mover this week, and Tempted, four from four on wet tracks, drew the inside gate.
Shane Dye has warned that rain changes more than the form. In his Idol Thoughts column, he wrote that a wet 1200m feels more like 1300m, and that winners often come down the middle of the track, where the ground is better.
Here’s how our experts rate the challengers chasing the champ.
1. Ka Ying Rising –
No: 1
Barrier: 11
Age/Sex: 6YO Gelding
Trainer: David Hayes
Jockey: Zac Purton
Race Record: 24:22-2-0
Biggest Win: G1 The Everest (2025)
Our panel has him on top again, and Hayes would not swap his draw. “I wouldn’t want barrier one for this horse. I’m happy with 11,” he said. Blue Door is the only rival who looks able to match his early speed. She is drawn two gates inside him, which Hayes says keeps the map simple: “She will be following us or we will be following her.” The draw also means a later load into the gates, where he played up before last year’s race.
The ground is the bigger question. He is unproven on heavy, and Hayes has drawn his line: “I think a 5, 6 or 7 I can tolerate – 8 I would start to worry.” Shane Dye came away from the Randwick trial not convinced he wants it wet.
He has won 21 in a row since his two early defeats. That run has David Morgan asking whether he is the best sprinter there’s ever been, and it has Australians planning holidays around Sha Tin.
2. Tempted –
No: 9
Barrier: 1
Age/Sex: 4YO Mare
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Chad Schofield
Race Record: 14:9-2-2
Biggest Win: G1 Surround Stakes (2026)
Barrier one may not suit a backmarker – especially in a race with a long tail. Schofield will need luck in the run if she settles back as she did in the Premiere, where she was 10th at the 400m before running her last 600m in 33.03 seconds. Hayes named her the main danger on a rain-affected track, and Dye thinks wet ground is where she could close the gap on the champion. The weights aren’t in her favour this time around though: Ka Ying Rising gave her 7.5kg last year and gives her only 2kg on Saturday. Ciaron Maher, whose rise from Warrnambool to racing juggernaut Adam Pengilly profiled for Idol Horse, won this race with Bella Nipotina in 2024.
3. Joliestar –
No: 8
Barrier: 5
Age/Sex: 6YO Mare
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: James McDonald
Race Record: 23:10-5-4
Biggest Win: G1 TJ Smith Stakes (2026)
She holds third, unchanged from last week. McDonald stays on after riding her to fourth in the Randwick trial, and barrier five gives him options. She goes into the race straight from her neck second in The Shorts. This will be her third straight Everest, after seventh in 2024 and fifth last year.
4. Headwall ↑3
No: 6
Barrier: 6
Age/Sex: 7YO Gelding
Trainer: Matthew Smith
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Race Record: 20:7-6-4
Biggest Win: G3 Concorde Stakes (2025)
He climbs three places based on the inclement weather and our panel rates him the wet-track specialist of the field. He has won both his starts on heavy ground and been placed in all four on soft. Dye also lists him among the horses who will benefit from the prevailing conditions – although there still may be a big gap from four to one on this list. Kerrin McEvoy – winner of three Everests and the only jockey to ride in all nine editions of the race – rides from barrier six, and trainer Matthew Smith has been waiting for rain: “One day he’ll jump midfield and the heavens will open up.”
5. Jimmysstar –
No: 2
Barrier: 8
Age/Sex: 7YO Gelding
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Race Record: 30:12-5-4
Biggest Win: G1 Manikato Stakes (2026)
He split our panel more than any other runner, with rankings ranging from fourth to seventh. There are doubts about how he handles soft or heavy ground. He ran third in the TAB’s slot last year. Nash Rawiller, who has a knack for leftfield tactics on outsiders and loves to find the best ground, rides from barrier eight.
6. Ninja ↑2
No: 7
Barrier: 3
Age/Sex: 4YO Gelding
Trainer: Michael Freedman
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Race Record: 10:5-1-2
Biggest Win: G2 Hobartville Stakes (2026)
He moves up two after beating Ka Ying Rising in their trial. Barrier three lets Berry ride him on the speed, as he wants to after the wide gate forced a conservative ride in The Shorts. Not everyone on our panel is convinced: “His barrier trial was certainly impressive enough to improve his rating, but I don’t want to overrate him. I still think he should be treated separately from horses that have been competing at G1 level.” Dye was not getting carried away either: “Ninja trialled a bit better. That doesn’t mean Ninja will beat him on raceday.” A win would cap a full-circle racing life for Michael Freedman.
7. Blue Door ↓1
No: 12
Barrier: 9
Age/Sex: 3YO Filly
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Jamie Melham
Race Record: 4:2-2-0
Biggest Win: G3 Heritage Stakes (2026)
She slips one place but her 51kg and natural speed make her the most important runner for how the race is shaped. Newgate’s Henry Field, whose farm secured her for its slot, calls her “electrically fast”. From barrier nine, with Ka Ying Rising just outside her, she is the one horse who can make the champion work early. She is one of two runners for Bjorn Baker, a trainer who does things his way, with Caballus drawn one gate wider.
8. Angel Capital ↓4
No: 4
Barrier: 2
Age/Sex: 5YO Horse
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Ben Melham
Race Record: 18:6-2-2
Biggest Win: G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (2026)
Nobody drops further this week, and our panel has doubts about him on soft or heavy ground. Yulong confirmed him for its slot, and Ben Melham, who rode him to his Group 1 breakthrough, gets barrier two. He finished third behind Caballus in the Newmarket and sixth in the Randwick trial. Blinkers go on – but how much difference will that make after 18 starts?
9. Savvy Hallie –
No: 11
Barrier: 7
Age/Sex: 4YO Mare
Trainer: Brad Widdup
Jockey: Zac Lloyd
Race Record: 14:4-5-1
Biggest Win: G2 Sheraco Stakes (2026)
She holds ninth in the colours of Mulberry Racing, the newest Everest slot holder. Zac Lloyd, the young rider David Morgan profiled for Idol Horse, picks up the ride from barrier seven. She ran three lengths second to Tempted in the Premiere and led in the Surround before Tempted just caught her. Her consistency over 1200m and proven wet form make her a genuine place chance if the rain continues.
10. Giga Kick –
No: 3
Barrier: 12
Age/Sex: 7YO Gelding
Trainer: Clayton Douglas
Jockey: Dylan Gibbons
Race Record: 25:9-3-3
Biggest Win: G1 The Everest (2022)
The 2022 winner has drawn the outside gate, which Bella Nipotina won from in 2024. Our panel can’t agree on him, ranking him anywhere from eighth to 11th. “It’s difficult to find much in his favour beyond his experience,” one of our experts said. He comes in third-up, which Clayton Douglas calls his “sweet spot”, and Dylan Gibbons says any rain would help. His spring form is thin after he was unplaced in the Moir and eighth in the Manikato. Another veteran who gets blinkers on for the first time.
11. Spicy Martini –
No: 10
Barrier: 4
Age/Sex: 5YO Mare
Trainer: Toby Edmonds
Jockey: Taylor Marshall
Race Record: 13:6-1-0
Biggest Win: G1 Stradbroke Handicap (2026)
Barrier four is a good draw for the $8000 Inglis Digital buy, who has since won A$2.73 million. She ran fourth in The Shorts first-up despite losing a shoe, but the two horses who beat her there were unplaced in the Premiere.
12. Caballus –
No: 5
Barrier: 10
Age/Sex: 6YO Gelding
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Tim Clark
Race Record: 22:7-1-2
Biggest Win: G1 Newmarket Handicap (2026)
Our panel has him last, with doubts about how he handles soft or heavy ground. Darby Racing is banking on the second-up pattern: he has won four of his five runs at this stage of a preparation. He led all the way in the Newmarket. Barrier 10 is the gate Nature Strip won from in 2021, when McDonald crossed to sit on the pace, but Caballus will have Blue Door and Ka Ying Rising either side of him chasing the same spot. ∎
