The ever-optimistic David Hayes is even happier with Ka Ying Rising’s Everest barrier after a night to digest it, but the rain over Sydney remains the bigger concern.
Hayes was at Canterbury Park on a chilly Wednesday morning, with the temperature a breezy 12 degrees Celsius, as Ka Ying Rising did two laps at a leisurely canter. When Hayes arrived he was told the course proper had received 87 millimetres of rain overnight. Across town at Randwick, the Everest track had copped around 64mm.
Despite the downpour, Canterbury was rated only a Slow 7, and Hayes was surprised by how well the track had held up.
“I couldn’t believe it,” Hayes said. “That is massive rain. It poured down. In one night, by Australian standards, that’s a lot of rain.”
Hayes said he would be confident about Ka Ying Rising’s chances if Randwick was in a similar state on Saturday.
Ka Ying Rising’s barrier 11, the second-widest gate, was the first revealed at Tuesday night’s draw beside the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Having thought over the map, Hayes believes it suits his champion sprinter.
The Randwick 1200m starts from a chute, with a long run to the track’s sweeping turn and the famed Randwick rise soon after straightening. That is a world away from the 1200m at Sha Tin. There, a short run of about 200m to the turn makes the start one of the most intense in top-class racing, and inside gates are at a premium.
“From a Hong Kong point of view, these 1200m races at Randwick are much more like a mile at Sha Tin,” Hayes said. “Zac will have more time than in a 1200m scamper in Hong Kong. Back home he has to get in before the 200, but here he’s got 600 to get across.
“The 1200m start is the hottest barrier in Hong Kong, and he has still won from the outside gate many times because he’s so fast. I wouldn’t want barrier one for this horse. I’m happy with 11.
“It’s a wonderful, neutral start with the chute, because it’s not on the course proper, and then they have lots of time to get across. It’s not a scamper like Hong Kong. Hong Kong is a genuine scamper, and I know he can scamper from the wide gate there.”
No horse has won from barrier 11 in nine Everests, but on-pace speedsters Nature Strip (2021) and Bella Nipotina (2024) won from gates 10 and 12.
Nature Strip’s win came from barrier 10. James McDonald did exactly what Hayes described: he started fast, assessed, and crossed to a two-wide position on the pace in a race with far more speed than this year’s.
This year’s Everest field features more backmarkers. The only horse that looks capable of matching Ka Ying Rising’s early speed is Blue Door, a three-year-old filly who carries 51 kilograms and front-running jockey Jamie Melham from barrier nine.
“She will be following us or we will be following her – the map is easy,” Hayes said. “If he follows something it is better.”
Newgate’s Henry Field, whose stud farm secured Blue Door to run in its slot, described her as “electrically fast”.
Clear second favourite Tempted drew barrier one. That gate may not suit a backmarker like her, but she does perform well on rain-affected surfaces.
The draw also helps Ka Ying Rising at the gates. He is usually loaded late in Hong Kong, and Zac Purton’s only wish was to avoid barriers one and seven, which are loaded first.
Ka Ying Rising won last year from barrier seven, but an unusually long wait before the gates opened left the champion agitated.
“He can be a little bit touchy in the gates,” Hayes said. “Last year he really played up and nearly went off. This year that won’t be a factor.”
The weather is another matter. Hayes joked on Tuesday that he feels he knows the television weather presenter personally, given how often he checks the forecast.
In Australia, track ratings run from 1, the firmest, to 10, the heaviest. Sha Tin would rarely be rated worse than a 3 on that scale.
“I think a 5, 6 or 7 I can tolerate – 8 I would start to worry, nine I would s‑‑‑ myself,” Hayes said on live television.
Ka Ying Rising is unproven on heavy ground, and Hayes admitted he was unsure how the champion would handle it.
“Nobody knows unless you are proven on it, and we know he is not,” he said. “On a dead or a slow we won’t be using that as an excuse, but it’s a genuine concern on a heavy track.”
Ka Ying Rising’s final pre-race workout will be on the Canterbury course proper Thursday morning. ∎
