G1 Guide & Tips: Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)

Race Information

History

The Tokyo Yushun has been the definitive test of Japan’s three-year-old colts since 1932. Run over 2400 metres at Tokyo, it carries prize money of ¥651 million (approximately $4.1 million USD) – the richest Derby in the world. The roll call of winners reads as a history of Japanese racing itself, from the post-war rebuilding years through the Sunday Silence revolution that reshaped the country’s bloodstock industry. For every crop of Japanese three-year-olds, the last Sunday in May at Fuchu is the day that matters most.

Eight winners have gone on to complete the Triple Crown – the Satsuki Sho, Tokyo Yushun and Kikuka Sho – and three belong to the modern era. Deep Impact’s five-length demolition under Yutaka Take in 2005 remains the race’s defining image. He retired with 12 wins from 14 starts and became one of the world’s greatest stallions before his death in 2019. The brilliant Orfevre and Contrail, a son of Deep Impact who swept the series unbeaten in 2020, followed in his hoofprints. In 2007, the filly Vodka became the first of her sex to win, a result that stunned even a racing public conditioned to expect the unexpected.

Statistics

Top Contenders

LOVCEN (World Premiere x Songwriting); 3YO

Trainer: Haruki Sugiyama
Jockey: Kohei Matsuyama
Biggest Win: G1 Satsuki Sho (2026)

Lovcen had been seen as a rock-solid contender to complete the Classic double in the Satsuki Sho and Tokyo Yushun, but his task was made tougher when he drew barrier 17 for the Derby. For Lovcen, who made all to win the Satsuki Sho, an outside barrier is a difficult problem that complicates the race plan. Even so, outside draws in the Derby are not as hopeless as they may seem. Barrier 17 has produced winners in Narita Brian and Wagnerian, while last year’s runner-up Masquerade Ball also came from barrier 17.

That said, drawing wide may force a change in strategy. In the G1 Hopeful Stakes, Lovcen settled in midfield in seventh before producing his finishing kick to run down the leaders, while in the G3 Kyodo News Hai, where he finished third, he also sat in fourth during the race. One of his major strengths is the tactical versatility in his racing style.

The Derby is typically run on the C course, with the inside rail on the turf moved farther out than the previous week, which generally favours on-pace runners. Indeed, in the past 10 runnings of the Derby, as many as seven winners entered the straight in fifth position or better. Lovcen fits that trend as well.

REALIZE SIRIUS (Poetic Flare x Red Mirabel); 3YO

Trainer: Takahisa Tezuka
Jockey: Akihide Tsumura
Biggest Win: G3 Kyodo News Hai (2026)

Lovcen and Realize Sirius, who have fought out close finishes in the G3 Kyodo News Hai and the G1 Satsuki Sho, will meet for the third time in the Tokyo Yushun. Their head-to-head record stands at one win apiece. In their past two meetings, the horse who raced ahead of his rival during the run has come out on top. Lovcen has drawn barrier 17, while Realize Sirius has landed barrier 11, almost in the middle of the field. It is certainly not an inside draw, but it is not a bad gate from which to go forward.

The biggest issue for Realize Sirius is the 2400m distance. His sire is Poetic Flare, Europe’s champion three-year-old miler, and he himself is a type blessed with abundant speed. He generally either leads or tracks the pace in second, but if he gets caught up in a high-tempo battle for the lead, there is a danger that this weakness could be exposed all at once.

Since 1992, when the Tokyo Yushun field was limited to 18 runners, no horse has won from barrier 11. Three have finished second from that gate, the most recent being Fenomeno in 2012. However, for Takahisa Tezuka, who has tasted the frustration of finishing second in the Derby with Sol Oriens and Masquerade Ball, what he wants is not second place, but first.

GOING TO SKY (Contrail x Goin to the Window); 3YO

Trainer: Yuuki Uehara
Jockey: Yutaka Take
Biggest Win: G2 Aoba Sho (2026)

Derby master Yutaka Take will entrust his bid for an unprecedented seventh Tokyo Yushun victory to Going to Sky, winner of the G2 Aoba Sho, a Derby trial. Both of his two career wins have come at Tokyo Racecourse. In the Aoba Sho, he won with ‘accelerating fractions’, with each furlong split holding firm all the way to the finish down the long straight, and his affinity for that long Tokyo stretch is outstanding.

On the other hand, what cannot be ignored is the losing streak of Aoba Sho runners. Since the Aoba Sho was established in 1994, not only has no horse completed the Aoba Sho-Derby double, but no horse has won the Derby via the Aoba Sho at all. There have been several runners-up, such as Symboli Kris S, Zenno Rob Roy, Win Variation and Fenomeno, but strangely, the race has yet to produce a Derby winner.

All six of Take’s Derby victories have come on horses who finished from off the pace. The veteran knows exactly how to win the Derby and if you combine that with Going To Sky’s proven finishing kick, the day may finally arrive when the Aoba Sho curse is broken.

REICHSADLER (Siskin x Krailling); 3YO

Trainer: Daisuke Sasaki
Jockey: Yuuki Uehara
Biggest Win: Newcomer (2025)

For Reichsadler, who is looking to move beyond a string of respectable efforts in the Derby, the inside barrier one is a hugely reassuring alley. Since the Derby field was capped at 18 runners, barrier one has produced five winners, starting with Deep Sky in 2008. In the Tokyo Yushun, a race often said to be won by ‘the luckiest horse’, Reichsadler has been handed a major advantage.

His only victory came on debut, but in his three subsequent graded-stakes attempts, including the Satsuki Sho, he has finished in the placings, each time close behind the winner. His reliable finishing kick, which he can produce steadily regardless of how the race unfolds, is an appealing weapon. There is a precedent for a horse without a graded-stakes win taking the Derby, with Roger Barows doing so in 2019, but the last one-win horse to win the race came all the way back in 1940.

If 22-year-old Daisuke Sasaki and 36-year-old Yuuki Uehara win, it would be an exceptional Derby triumph for a young jockey-trainer combination. Can Uehara set a new record by comfortably surpassing Shogo Yasuda’s mark of 41 years and 10 months?

Expert Analysis & Selections

Masanobu Takahashi

Angle: ‘Derby Position’

Back when the Tokyo Yushun was run with fields of 32 or 24, there was a racing maxim known as ‘Derby Position’. It held that a horse could not win unless it rounded the first corner within the top 10. Now that the field is capped at 18 runners, is that phrase outdated? Not necessarily. Excluding 2022, when both Equinox and Do Deuce came from behind, and 2017, when Rey De Oro swept forward mid-race, the ‘top 10 at the first corner’ rule has held true in eight of the past 10 runnings.

Even for a closer, the Derby is not a race that can be won from too far back. Among the leading contenders, there is little to worry about with Lovcen and Realize Sirius, both of whom are expected to race forward. Among the horses who finished high up in the Satsuki Sho, Forte Angelo is also a horse who can race fairly prominently. He missed the jump in the Satsuki Sho and had to race from the rear, but in the Derby we should see him return to his natural style.

For the fourth selection, Going To Sky would have been the straightforward choice, but I will include Peintre Naif as a longshot. The Satsuki Sho was exactly the kind of race that can be forgiven. With his tactical speed, he should be able to rebound at Tokyo.

Selections: #17 Lovcen, #11 Realize Sirius, #12 Forte Angelo, #13 Peintre Naif

Homan 

Angle: Satsuki Sho Form

The G1 Satsuki Sho is the most important trial for the Japanese Derby. Over the past 10 editions, 23 Derby placegetters have come through the Satsuki Sho, with 20 of them finishing in the top five.

Lovcen delivered a record-breaking performance to win the Satsuki Sho, confirming his status as the leading three-year-old colt in Japan after securing two Group 1 victories, the Hopeful Stakes and Satsuki Sho. His ability to stay the 2400m trip should not be in doubt, being by World Premiere, a Kikuka Sho (3000m) winner. His versatile racing style is also a key asset, particularly from a wide draw in barrier 17.

While a runner-up finish in the Satsuki Sho is typically a strong lead-in to the Derby, Realize Sirius may be disadvantaged by his front-running style, which is less effective at Tokyo Racecourse. In contrast, backmarkers are often favoured, bringing Forte Angelo and Reichsadler into contention. Both recorded top-three fastest closing 3F times among the top five finishers in the Satsuki Sho.

Beyond the Satsuki Sho form, G2 Spring Stakes winner Audacia warrants serious consideration. His path to the Derby has been unconventional, having bypassed the Satsuki Sho to preserve his condition. He produced the fastest final 3F in the Spring Stakes, defeating Ask Edinburgh, who subsequently finished fourth in the Satsuki Sho. He profiles as a potential X-factor in this field.

Selections: #17 Lovcen, #15 Forte Angelo, #1 Reichsadler, #9 Audacia

Shuhei Uwabo

Angle: Sustained Stamina Over Sharp Speed

The Derby is not just a rematch of the Satsuki Sho. The key is whether the leading contenders can carry their form into a sustained 2400m test at Tokyo. That makes Lovcen a more reliable favourite than his wide draw might suggest. Stall 17 is a concern, but he has already won the Hopeful Stakes and Satsuki Sho, and his pedigree points more toward stamina than limitation. If he finds a rhythm without being forced too hard early, he remains the horse to beat.

Realize Sirius is the main threat. He has already beaten Lovcen at Tokyo in the Kyodo News Hai, is unbeaten in two starts at the course, and looks the one most likely to benefit if the Derby becomes a clean, fast-ground test of stride and sustained acceleration.

Reichsadler is the value horse from the Satsuki Sho form. Third there and second in the Yayoi Sho, he has repeatedly held his own against the best of the crop. From stall 1, he should save ground and get the first chance to stay involved when the race stretches out.

Going To Sky completes the four. The Aoba Sho route is a historical obstacle, but he has already proved he can handle Tokyo 2400m, and his profile fits a Derby decided by stamina, rhythm and a long run from the turn.

Selections: #17Lovcen, #11Realize Sirius, #1Reichsadler, #14 Going To Sky

Steven Ho

Angle: Major Lead-Up Races

Lovcen will aim to confirm his preeminence at the head of this generation after breaking the Nakayama 2000m track record in a blistering 1:56.5 to win the G1 Satsuki Sho. His pedigree suggests he will be even more effective as he steps up in distance, making him the horse to beat here. Despite Realize Sirius placing second in the Satsuki Sho, he ran a massive race and remains a leading contender.

Congestus enters the frame following a strong victory in the G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai, a key trial for the Japanese Derby. His sire Contrail won the Derby in 2020, so Congestus’s pedigree suggests stamina to see out the 2400m will not be an issue.

Audacia arrives at the Derby fresh after bypassing the Satsuki Sho. He previously defeated Ask Edinburgh in the G2 Spring Stakes, a formline that commands respect given the latter’s subsequent fourth-place finish in Satsuki Sho. Additionally, Audacia’s proven winning form over 1800m at Tokyo Racecourse is a significant asset heading into the Derby.

Selections: #17 Lovcen, #11 Realize Sirius, #6 Congestus, #9 Audacia

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