2026 Tokyo Yushun: Japanese Derby Power Rankings

The G1 Tokyo Yushun brings a rematch between Lovcen and Realize Sirius, first and second in the first colts’ classic, the G1 Satsuki Sho, last month. Victory for Lovcen would not only put him in esteemed company as a dual classic winner, but also keep him on track for the Triple Crown, with the stamina-testing G1 Kikuka Sho in October likely to be in his wheelhouse.

But the Derby is never a foregone conclusion and Lovcen did not fare too well in the barrier draw. Aside from Realize Sirius, this year’s Derby field contains plenty of untapped challengers with Group 1 potential. 

Here’s how we see the candidates for this year’s Japanese Derby. 

1. Lovcen (17)

Jockey: Kohei Matsuyama
Trainer: Haruki Sugiyama
Pedigree: World Premiere x Songwriting
Owner: Forest Racing
Record: 4:3-0-1
Biggest Win: G1 Satsuki Sho (2026)

Lovcen has retained the top spot from the previous rankings and if he completes the Satsuki Sho-Tokyo Yushun double, he will be the first in six years, since the 2020 Triple Crown winner Contrail.

In his final workout, he covered four furlongs on the woodchip course in 51.4 seconds, clocking 11.2 seconds for the final furlong. One of the few concerns is possible fatigue from running in course-record time in the Satsuki Sho, but at this stage he shows no sign of a drop in condition. If anything, he appears to be improving.

So, how have horses who won the Satsuki Sho in race-record time fared in the Derby? Excluding Orfevre, who won the 2011 Satsuki Sho when it was staged at Tokyo, seven such horses have been beaten in the Derby since 2000, and the last to win was Narita Brian back in 1994. In addition, of the 16 horses that ran the Satsuki Sho in under two minutes, only four went on to win the Derby.

Among the beaten horses mentioned above is the 2017 Satsuki Sho winner Al Ain. Back then, Kohei Matsuyama earned his first G1 victory aboard him in the Satsuki Sho, only to fall short in the Derby when trying to claim the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Lovcen has drawn barrier 17 for the Derby. It is an unfavourable draw for a front-runner, but in the G1 Hopeful Stakes he showed that he could come from seventh and win with a closing run, so he does have the tactical versatility to deal with an outside barrier and we may see different tactics on Sunday.

2. Realize Sirius (11)

Jockey: Akihide Tsumura
Trainer: Takahisa Tezuka
Pedigree: Poetic Flare x Red Mirabel
Owner: Yosuke Imafuku
Record: 5:3-1-0
Biggest Win: G3 Kyodo News Hai (2026)

Realize Sirius has fought out close finishes with Lovcen in both the G3 Kyodo Tsushin Hai and the G1 Satsuki Sho and is a leading contender. On Wednesday, he worked over six furlongs on the flat woodchip course, clocking 11.3 seconds for the final furlong. He has continued to record fast workout times since the Satsuki Sho and his condition appears to leave nothing to be desired.

The obvious concern remains the 2400m distance. Whether he can settle and run with composure in the Derby will be key to his chances. That said, Salios, Danon Kingly and Isla Bonita switched to the mile division as older horses after finishing in the placings in the Derby.

The Tokyo Yushun will be run on Tokyo Racecourse’s C course this week. With the rail placed 6m out from the inside of the turf course, relatively fresh ground is expected. In recent years, the Derby has often been run on the C course, and that is one of the reasons the race has tended to produce favourable results for on-pace runners. Those conditions should work in his favour.

3. Going to Sky (14)

Jockey: Yutaka Take
Trainer: Yuki Uehara
Pedigree: Contrail x Goin to the Window
Owner: Field Racing
Record: 4:2-0-1
Biggest Win: G2 TV Tokyo Hai Aoba Sho (2026)

Since winning the G2 Aoba Sho, a Derby trial, Going To Sky has continued to show good movement in his workouts. In his interim preparation, he worked in company with his Yuki Uehara stablemates Reichsadler and Forte Angelo, who are also set to run in the Derby. After Thursday’s final gallop, Yutaka Take, who travelled to Miho, left positive comments praising the quality of his movement.

The Aoba Sho has failed to produce Derby winners to such an extent that it can almost be called a ‘curse’ among Derby trials, with zero Derby winners in its past 32 runnings. But what about horses who finished in the placings? In the 2010s, Win Variation, Fenomeno and Admirable all finished in the top three in the Derby, but since 2020, due in part to withdrawals and a DNF, not a single Aoba Sho runner has made the placings.

4. Forte Angelo (15)

Jockey: Kiwamu Ogino
Trainer: Yuki Uehara
Pedigree: Fierement x Lady Angela
Owner: Silk Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:1-2-0
Biggest Win: 2YO Debut (2025)

Forte Angelo has been as impressive as Going To Sky in his preparation for the Derby, showing good movement. In his final workout, he finished upsides Going To Sky, who came chasing from behind. The pair pulled well clear of the older Listed winner Pod Vader, suggesting that both are in excellent shape heading into the Derby.

Forte Angelo missed the jump and was forced to close from the rear for fifth in the Satsuki Sho. However, as he showed when finishing second to Lovcen in the G1 Hopeful Stakes, his natural racing style is to sit within striking range of the leader before producing his finishing kick. He has outstanding fighting spirit and if he can benefit from ground that favours horses racing forward, he could be a serious challenger for victory.

5. Congestus (6)

Jockey: Atsuya Nishimura
Trainer: Tomokazu Takano
Pedigree: Contrail x Kirramosa
Owner: Silk Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 3:3-0-0
Biggest Win: G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai (2026)

“I think that bloodline is great,” trainer Tomokazu Takano replied when asked about the possibility of a third successive generation in the sire line achieving an unbeaten Derby victory, following Deep Impact and Contrail. Given the two-week turnaround from the G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai, his latest workout was only a light tune-up. However, as the trainer said at the press conference, “His last race at Kyoto served as an excellent workout, so he had already been put under load there,” suggesting that everything has gone according to plan.

His dam, Kirramosa, won the G1 VRC Oaks in 2013, and judging from Congestus’ own racing style, the step up to 2400m should be a positive. As he races by launching a long, sustained run to pull away from his rivals, he will be affected by the shape of the race, but if it becomes a tough test, his opportunity should come.

6. Reichsadler (1)

Jockey: Daisuke Sasaki
Trainer: Yuki Uehara
Pedigree: Siskin x Krailling
Owner: G1 Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:1-1-2
Biggest Win: 2YO Debut (2025)

Yuki Uehara, the 36-year-old trainer who will send out four runners in this year’s Tokyo Yushun, paired them off two by two for their final workouts on Thursday. Reichsadler worked in company with Green Energy and finished alongside him while still travelling comfortably. In his workout one week earlier, he had finished ahead of Going To Sky without allowing him to catch up, and he looks set to head into the Derby in good condition.

In his only start at Tokyo, the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes, he rallied sharply along the inside in the long straight to finish third. His reliable finishing kick, which he produces consistently every time, is an appealing weapon, and he again looks capable of getting involved at the top end.

His sire, Siskin, was a European Guineas winner, while his broodmare sire Heart’s Cry, has produced two Derby winners as a sire, and, as a broodmare sire, has also produced horses such as Efforia, who finished second in the Derby.

7. Audacia (9)

Jockey: Damian Lane
Trainer: Takahisa Tezuka
Pedigree: Kizuna x Lily Noble
Owner: Sunday Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:2-2-0
Biggest Win: G2 Spring Stakes (2026)

Trainer Takahisa Tezuka, who finished second in the Tokyo Yushun with Sol Oriens in 2023 and Masquerade Ball in 2025, now seeks to finally earn the title of Derby-winning trainer. This year, he has two Derby runners. Often overshadowed by Realize Sirius, the lesser known quantity is Audacia. He is a horse who still has issues with mental immaturity, but Tezuka said: “With his workouts, the substance of how he runs is more important than the clock. This time, there was nothing to worry about.”

His dam, Lily Noble, was from the same generation as the Triple Tiara winner Almond Eye and finished second in the 2018 Oaks. Audacia is the type who can produce a long, sustained finishing kick, so Tokyo Racecourse should suit him.

Horses who have gone straight to the Tokyo Yushun from a race before the Satsuki Sho and won include Danon Decile in 2024 (a late scratching from the Satsuki Sho) and Shahryar in 2021. It was a rotation that had produced few success stories before then, but the fact that winners have emerged in recent years is worth noting.

8. Ask Edinburgh (12)

Jockey: Yasunari Iwata
Trainer: Yuichi Fukunaga
Pedigree: Leontes x Honey Trip
Owner: Toshihiro Hirosaki
Record: 8:2-2-1
Biggest Win: Open Cosmos Sho (2025)

Yasunari Iwata, the 52-year-old jockey who has partnered Ask Edinburgh in his last five starts, fractured his collarbone in a fall on the 17th, two weeks before the Derby. However, after undergoing surgery two days later, he returned to riding trackwork less than a week after that. With his indomitable fighting spirit, he has made it back in time to ride in the Tokyo Yushun.

In Ask Edinburgh’s one-week-out workout, Iwata’s son, Mirai Iwata, was in the saddle, but since then, Iwata himself has taken over. He has continued preparations while gradually putting the horse under load and reviewing the points that need correcting. Ask Edinburgh looks like one who can be expected to improve as he tries to improve on a string of respectable efforts.

That said, he has raced left-handed only once in eight starts, and that one run came at Tokyo, where he suffered the only heavy defeat of his career. His sire, Leontes, and his broodmare sire, Manhattan Cafe, have both produced horses with long-distance form, so there should be little concern over the trip, but his affinity for the course may be an issue.

9. Green Energy (16)

Jockey: Keita Tosaki
Trainer: Yuki Uehara
Pedigree: Suave Richard x Cymbak
Owner: Takafumi Suzue
Record: 4:2-0-1
Biggest Win: G3 Keisei Hai (2026)

For Green Energy, who is seeking to rebound from a seventh-place finish in the Satsuki Sho, the biggest crisis came one week ago. He spiked a temperature last Thursday and had to skip his one-week-out Derby workout. However, the fever was only mild, and after recovering quickly, he continued his preparation for the Derby. In his first gallop in two weeks this Thursday, he showed good movement, finishing upsides Reichsadler.

His strength is the powerful finishing kick he showed in the G3 Keisei Hai, but depending on the track bias on the day, he may find himself in a difficult position. Over the past five years, only three horses who entered the straight in 10th or worse have finished in the placings, and as mentioned, with the inside rail moved out, the track could favour on-pace runners.

That said, in the maiden he won at Tokyo, he scored from a position tracking the pace in second, so he is by no means a one-dimensional closer. The fever he suffered is a concern but he can’t be ignored based on his strong closing ability.

10. Peintre Naif (13)

Jockey: Christoph Lemaire
Trainer: Tetsuya Kimura
Pedigree: Kizuna x Art Brut
Owner: Carrot Farm Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:2-1-0
Biggest Win: G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes (2025)

Even after his heavy defeat when finishing 14th in the Satsuki Sho, Christophe Lemaire and Tetsuya Kimura have not given up. In the Satsuki Sho, which he contested after missing his trial due to poor condition, he lost position after meeting trouble during the race. The switch of venue to Tokyo Racecourse for the Tokyo Yushun is also a source of potential improvement for this horse.

In his Sunday workout, he clocked a personal-best 52.4 seconds for four furlongs on the uphill gallop. Then in his final gallop on Wednesday, he recorded 11.2 seconds for the final furlong on the woodchip course, showing good movement in training at just the right time.

One example of a horse who failed to make the placings in the Satsuki Sho on his first start of the season before rebounding in the Derby is Rey De Oro in 2017, who gave Christophe Lemaire his first Tokyo Yushun victory. Can Peintre Naif follow in the footsteps of his great Carrot Farm predecessor?

11. Matenro Gale (2)

Jockey: Kazuo Yokoyama
Trainer: Kenji Nonaka
Pedigree: Epiphaneia x Desert Ride
Owner: Chiyono Terada
Record: 6:2-3-0
Biggest Win: Listed Wakaba Stakes (2026)

Matenro Gale missed the start when 10th in the Satsuki Sho (10th) so that race wasn’t reflective of his true ability. Judging by his powerful finishes at Hanshin and Kyoto, the spacious track at Tokyo should suit him.

Leaving the Satsuki Sho aside, his record is ultra consistent. He has shown strong form in races such as the Listed Wakaba Stakes and the G3 Keisei Hai, where he finished second. If his that recent defeat causes him to drift significantly in betting, he is worth considering as a potential dark horse.

12. M’s Begin (18)

Jockey: Francisco Goncalves
Trainer: Yasuo Tomomichi
Pedigree: Kitasan Black x Delphinia
Owner: M’s Racing
Record: 4:1-2-0
Biggest Win: 2YO Maiden (2025)

M’s Begin, the blue-blooded colt who was sold for ¥590 million as a yearling, the highest price ever paid in Japan for a yearling, finished seventh in the G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai, a Derby trial. However, with Zoroastro bypassing the Tokyo Yushun, he has moved up into the field. In the G3 Kisaragi Sho, he finished ahead of Laughterlines (third in the Oaks) and ran second, beaten only a head by the winner.

Francisco Goncalves, who is riding in Japan on a short-term JRA licence for the first time this spring, has already made his mark with eight wins in four weeks. The major challenge for M’s Begin is that he has drawn the widest barrier, 18. Even so, over the past 10 years, four horses drawn in barriers 17 or 18 have finished in the placings. For Goncalves, this will be a chance to show his skill.

13. Basse Terre (5)

Jockey: Yuuga Kawada
Trainer: Takashi Saito
Pedigree: Kitasan Black x Mambia
Owner: Silk Racing Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:2-1-0
Biggest Win: G2 Yayoi Sho (2026)

Basse Terre’s final workout partner ahead of the Tokyo Yushun was last year’s Derby winner Croix Du Nord, who is aiming to complete the Spring Triple Crown in the Takarazuka Kinen. Basse Terre led the work, then finished just ahead of the champion as he came chasing from behind.

In the Satsuki Sho, where he finished 11th, he raced towards the rear throughout and never really had a chance to get involved. His racing style will need to improve in the Derby and there are question marks over whether he can make such a significant adjustment in such a short period. Whether he can keep his composure in front of a huge crowd will also be an issue.

14. Meisho Hachiko (7)

Jockey: Michael Dee
Trainer: Mitsunori Makiura
Pedigree: Roger Barows x Amorevole
Owner: Yoshitaka Matsumoto
Record: 3:3-0-0
Biggest Win: Listed Principal Stakes (2026)

Kiwi jockey Mick Dee, currently riding in Japan on a short-term JRA licence, has won two straight aboard Meisho Hachiko. Following his latest start in the Listed Principal Stakes, he will again line up in the Tokyo Yushun as an outsider, but this will be a much tougher challenge than last time.

His finishing kick is not explosively sharp, but the way he stays on strongly all the way to the line is appealing. He usually races from a forward position, but with the Derby bringing a step up in trip, settling will be the key. If Mick Dee prioritises getting him to relax, he may track from a position just behind the battle for the lead.

15. Justin Vista (10)

Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Trainer: Tatsuya Yoshioka
Pedigree: Saturnalia x Pebble Garden
Owner: Masahiro Miki”
Record: 3:2-0-0
Biggest Win: G3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes (2025)

Justin Vista is an intriguing presence and could feature in the finish if he shows his true ability. As a two-year-old, he won the G3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes and was a highly regarded prospect for the following year’s Classic season, only for those plans to be derailed by a fracture. However, he has just managed to make it back in time for the Japanese Derby.

Facing top-class rivals in his first race in around five months is undoubtedly a difficult task. The ability he showed in finishing ahead of Ask Edinburgh and Going To Sky is highly rated, but given the setback he is unlikely to be among the leading contenders.

16. Altramuz (4)

Jockey: Takeshi Yokoyama
Trainer: Kenji Nonaka
Pedigree: Isla Bonita x Dejimano Hana
Owner: Shadai Race Horse Co. Ltd.
Record: 4:2-1-0
Biggest Win: G3 Mainichi Hai (2026)

Altramuz has shown clear ability at a mile but the 2400m Derby distance will be his biggest challenge. In the Satsuki Sho, he stumbled around the final corner and gave up the fight early in the straight, but even before that was losing position. In his final workout, he clocked a personal-best 52.5 seconds on the uphill gallop, and his condition itself does not appear to be poor. The question now is how efficiently he can race without using up too much stamina.

17. Shonan Gulf (8)

Jockey: Suguru Hamanaka
Trainer: Naosuke Sugai
Pedigree: Harbinger x Mi Carino
Owner: Tetsuhide Kunimoto
Record: 4:2-0-0
Biggest Win: G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes (2025)

Will Shonan Gulf, who produced a powerful late charge in the G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes, return to that form, or will this be another heavy defeat? For a horse who has been well beaten in consecutive starts in the G1 Hopeful Stakes and the G3 Kisaragi Sho, the Tokyo Yushun is a race in which his chances of getting involved at the top end appear slim. However, if he can produce a run that offers some sign of revival, he could become an interesting prospect with the autumn Kikuka Sho in mind.

18. Kenton (3)

Jockey: Yuuji Tannai
Trainer: Toshiaki Tajima
Pedigree: Real Steel x A T Rosetta
Owner: Toshio Fujinuma 
Record: 6:2-0-0
Biggest Win: Yamabuki Sho (2026)

With Bereshit bypassing the race, it is Kenton who secured the vacant berth in the Tokyo Yushun after coming through the ballot. He won a 2200m allowance race on his first start after switching to turf, before finishing 10th in the G2 Aoba Sho, a Derby trial. Having drawn barrier three, he could play a role in the battle for the lead this time. His chances of getting involved at the top end appear slim, but he is a horse worth noting when assessing how the pace may unfold.

Interestingly, last week’s Oaks winner Juryoku Pierrot also followed a career path that saw her switch from dirt to turf, and Kenton faced her in the dirt Jpn3 JBC Nisai Yushun last November. Juryoku Pierrot finished seventh, while Kenton was eighth.

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