Aa Aa Aa

Japanese star Prognosis had some of Australia’s best horses a long way behind him as he broke Winx’s Moonee Valley track record for 2040m by almost six-tenths of a second in Saturday’s G1 Cox Plate – yet, unfortunately for him, he had to settle for another runner-up finish on the world stage as Via Sistina produced an earth-shattering performance to land Australasia’s weight-for-age championship.

Sent off as favourite by Australian bettors, Prognosis was widely expected to join Lys Gracieux as a Japanese winner of the Cox Plate. However, the Mitsumasa Nakauchida-trained bay was upstaged by trainer Chris Waller and jockey James McDonald, with the rider landing a milestone 100th Group 1 victory aboard Via Sistina.

He also became just the second jockey to win the race in three consecutive years aboard three different horses, with his wins aboard Anamoe, Romantic Warrior and Via Sistina seeing him join the legendary Brent Thomson as the only riders to achieve the feat.

For Prognosis backers – and Japanese racing fans as a whole – it all looked so promising in the early stages.

The barrier work undertaken by Victorian horseman Julien Welsh worked wonders as he jumped cleanly from the gates and ended up contesting the lead through the short run to the first turn. With Pride Of Jenni pushing forward out wide and Royal Patronage kicking up along the fence, Lane eased him back to settle third on the inside – by far and away the closest he had ever settled in a race to date.

At the 1200m, Michael Dee eased Royal Patronage as Pride Of Jenni assumed her usual front-running role. Rather than letting Pride Of Jenni skip too far ahead, Lane ensured she was never more than two and a half lengths in front. 

With Pride Of Jenni hard-ridden past the 600m, Lane allowed Prognosis to stride up under his own steam. However, Via Sistina – who had settled back seventh in the nine-horse field – made rapid progress under James McDonald and no sooner had Prognosis claimed the front that he himself was headed by Via Sistina. 

Prognosis stuck on solidly, clearly ahead of the remainder of his rivals but eight lengths astern of Via Sistina. It became his third runner-up finish at Group 1 level outside Japan after finishing second twice in the G1 QEII Cup (2000m) in Hong Kong – both times to last year’s Cox Plate winner Romantic Warrior.

Lane couldn’t do much more than shake his head at one of the great performances worldwide this year.

“She was way too good today,” Lane said. “Prognosis was very honest, you couldn’t have asked much more. He stepped away well and travelled great throughout the run. I was confident coming down the side I was going to be a winning chance but Via Sistina was just in another class today.”

Prognosis may face a rematch with both Romantic Warrior and Via Sistina in a mouth-watering G1 Hong Kong Cup (2000m) at Sha Tin in December.

Andrew Hawkins is the Idol Horse Globetrotter. Andrew’s deep passion for international racing has taken him to all corners of the world, including Hong Kong, where he was based for five years. He has worked with media outlets including South China Morning Post, Racing Post, ANZ Bloodstock News, Sky Racing Australia and World Horse Racing, as well as for organisations including the Hong Kong Jockey Club and Victoria Racing Club.

View all articles by Andrew Hawkins.

Don’t miss out on all the action.

Subscribe to the idol horse newsletter