Damian Lane knows what it takes for a big-striding Japanese horse to adapt to Moonee Valley and came away from a familiarisation gallop with Prognosis on the unique course feeling confident nine days out from the G1 Cox Plate.
Lane won the Cox Plate aboard Japanese mare Lys Gracieux five years ago and said a solid workout from Prognosis compared favourably and should translate to a strong performance on raceday.
“He probably did a little bit more in his work than Lys Gracieux did,” Lane said after Prognosis produced a strong gallop, running home in 23.56s for the final 400m out of an overall 1.04.12s for the final 1000m.
“She was there just literally just for a look around, whereas he was asked to do a little bit more the last couple hundred metres,” Lane said.
“Prognosis was there just to get acquainted with the track and stretch his legs over the last couple hundred meters and he did it really well.”
Lys Gracieux demolished rivals in 2019 and although Prognosis is not a Group 1 winner yet, he has won twice at Group 2 level over 2000m and placed three times at Group 1 level: a third behind Equinox in last year’s Tenno Sho (Autumn) and has finished second twice to 2023 Cox Plate winner Romantic Warrior at Sha Tin last year.
Prognosis will not just have to beat Australia and New Zealand’s best middle-distance horses in the Cox Plate though, but also handle Moonee Valley’s unique layout. The Melbourne track’s ‘saucer’ shape, tight circumference (1805m), cambered turns and the shortest home straight in Australian racing – just 173m – make it a challenge in itself.
Balance is crucial for horses taking on the left-handed turn in what is usually a highly tactical race in which race position and tempo are critical factors.
Lane said Lys Gracieux didn’t actually handle Moonee Valley well in her Cox Plate triumph, but just had a class edge on her rivals.
“During the race, she was not actually that great and didn’t get around the corner that well. It’s just that she was just far superior to her opposition,” he said.
How a horse adapts to Moonee Valley by leading with the correct leg – in this case their near side (left) leg – in their galloping action is key, but Lane said that even if horses get that part right, they can also attempt to over-compensate for the tight turns and veer towards the inside rail.
“Lys Gracieux was on one rein and spent most of the race wanting to lay in,” Lane said. “Horses can do that when they’re a little unbalanced and they’re trying to over-correct and make the turn, on the last corner in particular. So when I let her go, she hung in quite severely.”
“If a horse is on the wrong lead leg, that usually means they’ll run out … But she was the opposite, she was trying to overcompensate and she was running in. Prognosis just adapted with his lead changes so well this morning, he just strikes me as a very intelligent horse.”
“So I can’t imagine that even under race pressure that it will be a problem. It just seems like he’s going to handle it.”
Other expected Cox Plate runners Broadsiding, Via Sistina and Docklands also galloped on the Moonee Valley course proper.
Prognosis, who is based at Werribee racecourse, is not expected to return to Moonee Valley for the “Breakfast With The Best” event on Tuesday, October 22, at which some Cox Plate contenders will gallop. Prognosis’ trainer Mitsumasa Nakauchida plans to arrive in Melbourne on Cox Plate-eve ∎