G1 Guide And Tips: Japan Cup

Race Information

History

The Japan Cup, first held In 1981, is a 2400 metre Group 1 invitational and one of the truly global – by its very conception – events on the world racing calendar.

Created by the Japan Racing Association (JRA) as a way to test their best gallopers against the world’s elite, the Cup’s honour roll blends famous globetrotting stars of yesteryear with many of Japan’s modern day greats, including the likes of Deep Impact, Almond Eye and Equinox.

Internationals were the dominant force early claiming eight of the first 10 Cups, but the ascendancy has swung firmly in the favour of the locals who have strung together the last 19 on end.

Whether that trend continues in 2025 will rest solely on the withers of French galloper – and recently crowned Horse of the Year – Calandagan, who will aim to snap Japan’s recent stranglehold on the race as the lone international in the 18-horse field. Standing in his way will be a strong local contingent that includes Japan’s top-rater Danon Decile, along with star colts Masquerade Ball and Croix du Nord.

The sudden passing of champion mare Gentildonna has leant a sad subscript to this year’s edition – the daughter of Deep Impact etched her name in Japan Cup folklore as the first two-time winner of the race and the only horse to go back-to-back.

Statistics

Top Contenders

CALANDAGAN (Gleneagles x Calayana); 4YO

Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard

Jockey: Mikael Barzalona

Biggest win: G1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2025)

A week before the Japan Cup he was crowned 2025 Cartier Horse of the Year, and the horse, who is quite literally “Europe’s best”, will now travel to Japan. Last year’s runners Auguste Rodin and Goliath were already a major shock to Japanese fans, but just one year later an even bigger name lines up for the race.

Calandagan’s main strength is his consistency. Since his first Group 1 attempt in the 2024 Juddmonte International, he has run in seven consecutive G1 races, finishing first or second on each occasion. The Dubai Sheema Classic turned into a very different kind of race compared with typical European tempo, but even then he still managed to finish second to Danon Decile.

That said, it is hard to ignore the fact that no overseas-trained horse has won the race in the past 20 years. Last year’s Japan Cup developed into an unusually slow-paced race, and the big names were at the mercy of that tempo. There has been plenty of talk about how foreign runners handle Japan’s firm turf, but the more pressing issue this year is that a genuinely strong pace is not a given, which makes things especially tricky.

MASQUERADE BALL (Duramente x Mask Off); 3YO

Trainer: Takahisa Tezuka

Jockey: Christoph Lemaire

Biggest win: G1 Tenno Sho Autumn (2025)

The list of three-year-olds to win the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn reads like a roll call of greats: Bubble Gum Fellow, Symboli Kris S, Efforia and Equinox. This year, Masquerade Ball added his name to that illustrious list.

There are even fewer cases of three-year-olds winning the Japan Cup, but there is no shortage of strong performances. Since Rey de Oro’s second place in 2017, a three-year-old has finished in the top three almost every year. Masquerade Ball is the leading candidate to fill that role this time.

He captured the Tenno Sho when fresh and the Japan Cup will be only the second start of his autumn campaign, so he comes in with something still held in reserve. He was narrowly beaten into second in the G1 Tokyo Yushun, and that proven form over 2400m at Tokyo is another major plus.

The key question is whether he can finally record his first victory over Croix du Nord at the fourth time of asking.

CROIX DU NORD (Kitasan Black x Rising Cross); 3YO

Trainer: Takashi Saito

Jockey: Yuichi Kitamura

Biggest win: G1 Tokyo Yushun (2025)

At his first start in France in the G3 Prix du Prince d’Orange, he narrowly defeated Daryz who would go on to win the Arc, but in the Arc itself he struggled in the heavy ground and finished 14th. This year’s Derby winner was unable to show his true brilliance in France.

The route from the Arc to the Japan Cup is by no means unheard of, but you have to go back to Deep Impact in 2006 to find a horse that completed the double with a Japan Cup win. Last year, Shin Emperor followed the same path and finished second, but it remains a demanding and taxing challenge.

After returning to Japan, Croix du Nord took some time to come to himself, and in his workout a week ago he was outpaced by a lesser workmate. However, in this week’s gallop, Cristian Demuro – brought in as a “neutral third party” – got on his back, and the green light was given for him to take his place in the line-up. The time he recorded was by no means bad, and it appears that trainer Saito has brought him forward significantly in the space of a week.

Yuichi Kitamura will retain the ride in the Japan Cup.

DANON DECILE (Epiphaneia x Top Decile); 4YO

Trainer: Shogo Yasuda

Jockey: Keita Tosaki

Biggest win: G1 Tokyo Yushun (2024)

Last year’s Tokyo Yushun winner and G1 Arima Kinen third-placegetter produced a “very, very good” performance in his seasonal reappearance in the Dubai Sheema Classic, turning back Calandagan into second. However, in the Juddmonte International in August, he was thrown off his game by a very European-style race that was completely different from Japanese racing, fading tamely to finish fifth in the six-horse field.

Surprisingly, this will be his first start in Japan this year and it comes as late as November, but that point is probably not a major concern. His Derby win last year came as an unheralded dark horse and was somewhat unusual in nature, but judging from his subsequent performances, there seems to be little doubt about his actual ability.

There are not many precedents for the route from the Juddmonte International to the Japan Cup, but last year Durezza followed the same path and battled on well for second, while Zenno Rob Roy finished third in 2005 (coming via the Tenno Sho Autumn). Danon Decile is a horse for whom there are many “unusual” aspects, but he shouldn’t be underestimated.

SHIN EMPEROR (Siyouni x Starlet’s Sister); 4YO

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Jockey: Ryu Sakai

Biggest win: G2 Neon Turf Cup (2025)

Last year’s runner-up in this race, Shin Emperor won this year’s G2 Neom Turf Cup in Saudi Arabia. He finished well beaten last time out in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes, but a subsequent examination revealed a case of bleeding, and he skipped the Arc and was given a two-month rebuilding period before heading to the Japan Cup.

He has some conspicuous heavy defeats on his record, such as last year’s Arc and this year’s Dubai Sheema Classic, but his ability when the race shape plays to his strengths is undeniable. In last year’s Japan Cup he showed a determined late kick and battled on well behind Do Deuce.

The key factor will be the race tempo. He is clearly not the type that wants a distinctly slow tempo – he can show more of his ability if he is able to race prominently and hold the keys to the pace himself. If Ho O Biscuits or Sunrise Earth go out and set a severe, fast pace in front, Shin Emperor will be the one to pay the price. The wide draw is another negative factor.

Expert Analysis & Selections

MASANOBU TAKAHASHI

Angle: Globetrotter

The Tokyo 2400m course, where the Tokyo Yushun is held, produces relatively few upsets and is worthy of being called a champions’ course. While there is a distinct possibility the race will be affected by the pace, I think Calandagan will be well capable of showing his true ability.

On top of that, I would also like to recommend the two Derby winners, Danon Decile and Croix Du Nord. One concern for both of them is that they are coming back from overseas campaigns, but more than three months have passed since the former’s last run, and although the latter has had a somewhat rushed preparation, he has somehow made it here in time. 

Last year, Shin Emperor (2nd) and Durezza (3rd) also came into the race off their previous starts in Europe. Shin Emperor is again a candidate – he has proven ability and is unlikely to run a poor race.

Selections: #8 Calandagan, #2 Croix Du Nord, #14 Danon Decile, #16 Shin Emperor

HOMAN

Angle: Barrier bias

There is a barrier bias over 2400m at Tokyo racecourse, especially in the Japan Cup. The first six barriers have generated nine winners in the last 10 years. There is a clear advantage for horses who draw inside. 

Japanese Derby winner Croix du Nord draws inside (2), while key opponents like Calandagan, Danon Decile and Masquerade Ball (#15) all draw outside.

Although Croix du Nord performed poorly in The Arc, several horses have bounced back from that race in recent years, such as Just A Way (2014) and Shin Emperor (20240. 

The fact Croix du Nord is unbeaten at Tokyo will help him to win the Japanese Derby and Japan Cup double in the same year – a feat last achieved by Jungle Pocket in 2001.

Selections: #2 Croix du Nord, #14 Danon Decile, #8 Calandagan, #15 Masquerade Ball

STEVEN HO

Angle: Class

It’s rare to see the Japan Cup feature the highest-rated horse in the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings.

In recent years, the foreign horses competing in the Japan Cup have generally had lower international ratings. This year, however, Calandagan presents a significant challenge to the local contenders with an impressive international rating of 130. 

The second highest-rated horse in this field is Danon Decile (125). If Calandagan can replicate his UK performances, I believe the local horses will struggle to match him. Masquerade Ball has a rating of 121, but as a three-year-old, he may still be on an upward trajectory.

Selections: #8 Calandagan, #2 Croix du Nord, #14 Danon Decile, #5 Sunrise Earth

JAYSON KWOK

Angle: Dubai Carnival formline

The Japan Cup is considered a ‘survival of the fittest’ and this year’s race has almost all the top mile and a half horses competing. 

The Dubai Sheema Classic has produced a number of Japan Cup winners in recent years, such as Equinox, Suave Richard and Gentildonna, while Almond Eye was victorious in the Dubai Turf. For that reason I will prioritise horses with a Dubai formline.

Danon Decile’s win over Calandagan in Dubai proves his class and he can remain unbeaten at 2400 metres. 

Calandagan has proven his class but being the only overseas contender will make it a tough fight.

Croix du Nord is the horse to look out for. He may gain an advantage from the inside draw and he soundly defeated Masquerade Ball in the Derby. The question is whether he has recovered from the Arc.

Selections: #14 Danon Decile, #2 Croix du Nord, #15 Masquerade Ball, #17 Durezza

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