Prognosis’ connections are edging towards the G1 Cox Plate rather than the Tenno Sho (Autumn) if he gets through his upcoming G2 Sapporo Kinen assignment without any issues, and Damian Lane is at the front of the line to take the ride.
The six-year-old’s trainer Mitsumasa Nakauchida spoke to Idol Horse after his charge had moved strongly through his final fast work before he ships to Hokkaido on Friday for the August 18 race.
“It all depends on how he runs in Sapporo, but I’m pretty confident he will perform well in the Sapporo Kinen, whatever the ground condition,” Nakauchida said. “That will give us the option to go to the Cox Plate or the Tenno Sho, but I’m leaning towards the Cox Plate more than the Tenno Sho because he’s a good traveller and the level of his performance doesn’t change when he goes overseas.”
Prognosis has travelled offshore three times, to Hong Kong where he placed runner-up in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup in 2023 and 2024, and fifth in the 2023 G1 Hong Kong Cup, each time behind Hong Kong’s 2024 Cox Plate winner Romantic Warrior.
Should he remain in Japan for the Tenno Sho, he could well face last year’s standout filly, his stablemate Liberty Island who is returning from an injury setback and is the mount of Prognosis’ usual rider, Yuga Kawada.
“Because my main jockey will be riding at Tokyo that weekend for the Tenno Sho, we are talking to Damian Lane at the moment to see if he will be able to ride Prognosis,” Nakauchida said.
Lane has made his name as a go-to rider for Japanese connections thanks to major successes on their horses in Japan and overseas, most notably the champion mare Lys Gracieux in the G1 Cox Plate, G1 Takarazuka Kinen, and G1 Arima Kinen in 2019. He teamed up with Nakauchida to win the G1 Mile Championship on the trainer’s Serifos in 2022.
The reigning Melbourne Premiership champion holds Prognosis in high regard and believes the Shadai Racehorse Co Ltd-owned entire would have a major chance if he were to take the Cox Plate route.
“I think the easiest way to line him up is that he has been very competitive against Romantic Warrior and probably should’ve beaten him at the latest match-up,” Lane told Idol Horse. “Romantic Warrior won the Cox Plate last year and Prognosis should have beaten him in April, that is the simplest way to put it. So he should hold his own in Australia.”
Nakauchida confirmed that Prognosis would not have a lead-up race on the ground in Australia, but the horse still has plenty of hoops to jump through if he is to make the line-up at Moonee Valley on October 26.
“We still don’t know the course condition, it’s a very tricky course, and the issue is that the quarantine period is quite long,” Nakauchida said.
“He has to leave my stable at Ritto six weeks before the race, so two weeks’ quarantine in Japan, perhaps at Tokyo, and then he arrives in Australia for quarantine four weeks before the race, so we have to prepare for it being a long time away from home and that’s a new challenge for us. It’s different to going to Hong Kong and back in a short period of time, it’s not as simple as that.
“We have to go through the scans in Japan and he has to have an MRI in Australia, so there’s all that to consider. We still don’t know if we will make it to the race because there is a lot to get through but, considering safety and animal welfare, I don’t disagree with this. For the interests of the public and for the sport, I don’t think it’s too bad.”
As for Prognosis’ attempt at a second consecutive win in the Sapporo Kinen, Nakauchida was pleased with his Wednesday morning gallop under his regular work rider Makoto Nishitani, a Grade 1-winning jumps jockey.
“He went through our usual preparation for a race and he galloped quite strongly,” Nakauchida said. “It’s usual to gallop 10 or 11 days before the race and it was a good gallop.
“He went really nicely, he settled nicely and he finished good, which is what I wanted to see. I’m very happy with the way he’s coming up for the Sapporo Kinen.”
