Japan At The 2024 Breeders’ Cup: Contenders, Dark Horses And Talking Points

‘Team Japan’ runs 19 strong at the upcoming Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Del Mar, but who are the intriguing runners and most likely winners? Idol Horse’s experts have their say in the latest Racing Roundtable.

Japan At The 2024 Breeders’ Cup: Contenders, Dark Horses And Talking Points

‘Team Japan’ runs 19 strong at the upcoming Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Del Mar, but who are the intriguing runners and most likely winners? Idol Horse’s experts have their say in the latest Racing Roundtable.

Which Of Japan’s 19 Breeders’ Cup Aspirants Has The Best Chance Of Delivering A Win? 

David Morgan: Forever Young has the toughest assignment of all in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, facing formidable rivals in Fierceness and City Of Troy, but I still think he’s Japan’s most likely winner. 

There are less question marks about him than any other Japanese raider. He’s a proven traveller, already boasts top North American form and heads in off a strong win in his prep. 

Andrew Hawkins: American Bikini, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The extended trip is a query but she looked so good against the boys last start and was so zippy over the 1000m before that. The American fillies don’t look a top-notch bunch and think she shapes as the most likely winner.

Frank Chang: Remake, Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The dirt sprint division in America is currently average at best while Remake has put up some good performance in Saudi Arabia and Korea. The horse has been consistent overseas since last year and will be a serious contender.

Masanobu Takahashi: I would like to say Forever Young… but I’ll go with Ecoro Sieg in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. His speed is genuine. He has the speed to compete for the lead, and I believe there’s a good chance he will go wire-to-wire.

Remake wins G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint
REMAKE, YUGA KAWADA / G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint // King Abdulaziz Racecourse /// 2024 //// Photo by Shuhei Okada

Which Japanese Horse Is The Most Underestimated? 

David Morgan: I think Shahryar might be overlooked given that he’s 31 months without a win, but I reckon he’s certainly capable of nailing the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He’s won a Dubai Sheema Classic and was second again in that race this year, albeit behind the re-opposing Rebel’s Romance, but this will be a very different style of 12-furlong race. He hit traffic on the home turn when third in this race last year and he wasn’t given a hard time when fifth in his prep at Sapporo last start on his return from a five-month lay-off. 

Andrew Hawkins: Shin Believe, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. A winner of his only start and won effortlessly. Looks to be the right type to tackle this race, although the colts shape as stronger opposition than the fillies.

Frank Chang: Awesome Result, BC Distaff. All the hype for this race currently is about the duel between top three-year-old Thorpedo Anna and last year’s best older filly Idiomatic. However, Thorpedo Anna has had a hard schedule this year: after a tough battle against Fierceness in the Travers she was almost defeated in the Cotillion. On the other hand, Idiomatic is not as dominant as last year. If these two horses do not show their best, the undefeated Justify filly Awesome Result may create another shock in the race previously won by Marche Lorraine. 

Masanobu Takahashi: Geoglyph, Breeders’ Cup Mile. Looking at his trends so far, Geoglyph tends to perform well on tight courses like Del Mar. He isn’t a standout, but he’s delivered consistent performances in all of his races this year. However, the word “underestimated” might not fit if it becomes well known that he has a Group 1 victory over Equinox on his CV.

Geoglyph defeats Equinox in G1 Satsuki Sho
GEOGLYPH (L), EQUINOX / G1 Satsuki Sho // Nakayama /// 2022 //// Photo by JRA

Every Breeders’ Cup Is Different But What Is Unique About ‘BC24’ At Del Mar? 

David Morgan: Meta Max won’t be high on any lists as a probable Japanese winner, but the last-start victor runs in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint for his owner Susumu Fujita whose company Cygames just happens to sponsor the race. Could Cygames use the Del Mar event to announce the long-awaited English language launch of its hit game Umamusume: Pretty Derby? Watch this space. 

Andrew Hawkins: Del Mar is a unique course and it is very tight, particularly the turf races. The Europeans generally struggle to adapt – of the 13 turf races contested between two Breeders’ Cups at Del Mar, Europe has won six of them. Of those six, five raced for Godolphin and one for Coolmore. With stronger Japanese opposition as well, it may prove challenging for the Euros.  

Frank Chang: The sheer number of Japanese horses of course, but especially the number and quality of two-year-olds from Japan.

Masanobu Takahashi: Three superstar Japanese horses in Forever Young, Ushba Tesoro and Derma Sotogake gathered for the Classic. Honestly, looking at the history of Japanese horse racing, there has never been a time when such an incredible trio came together in the same era. If they can’t win with this dream team, this dream will move even further out of reach.

What Will We Be Talking About After The Breeders’ Cup? 

David Morgan: It’s either going to be more talk about how strong Japan’s horses are and the success of the American bloodlines in their pedigrees, or about how tough it still is to beat the Americans on their home soil if Japan’s raiders fail to hit the mark. Similarly, a City Of Troy win will bring a whole heap of praise for his sire Justify. 

Andrew Hawkins: Whatever the result, City Of Troy’s performance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be the talking point. If he wins, Coolmore will have struck gold. If he performs admirably in defeat, he gains a new legion of supporters as one of the better dual surface horses of recent times. And if he’s well beaten…well, it certainly didn’t harm Galileo’s stud career when he lost at his final start in the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Belmont Park. 

Frank Chang: If the Japanese do well, particularly on dirt, it will certainly shake up American racing.

Masanobu Takahashi: Regardless of results, after the Breeders’ Cup we will be talking about whether or not to send Japanese two-year-olds overseas. Depending on the results of Future Stars Friday, the trend in Japanese horse racing will change. 

City Of Troy gallops at Southwell
CITY OF TROY, RYAN MOORE / Southwell // 2024 /// Photo by Mike Egerton

What Headline Do You Most Want To See Out Of ‘BC24’? 

David Morgan: “Trailblazer Mori Has A Breeders’ Cup Win At Last” — This would be deserved acknowledgement of Hideyuki Mori’s role as an international pioneer among Japanese horsemen, and the investments he has made over many years at North American sales.

Andrew Hawkins: “Japan Upsets US-Euro Battle For Racing’s Ryder Cup” — the Breeders’ Cup may not be the World Championships just yet but Japan joining as a genuinely equal contender adds another layer. 

Frank Chang: “American Bloodlines From Japan Prevail Over American Pedigree” 

Masanobu Takahashi: “Sunrise At Del Mar: Team Japan Doesn’t Return Empty-Handed”

Racing Roundtable, Idol Horse

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