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2025 BMW Hong Kong Derby Power Rankings, February 5

Our panel of Hong Kong racing experts have re-ranked the BMW Hong Kong Derby contenders after an eventful Chinese New Year Raceday which included the first leg of the four-year-old Classic Series, the Hong Kong Classic Mile.

2025 BMW Hong Kong Derby Power Rankings, February 5

Our panel of Hong Kong racing experts have re-ranked the BMW Hong Kong Derby contenders after an eventful Chinese New Year Raceday which included the first leg of the four-year-old Classic Series, the Hong Kong Classic Mile.

Last Friday’s huge Chinese New Year Raceday brought a big shake up to the Idol Horse 2025 BMW Hong Kong Derby Power Rankings. 

The Hong Kong Classic Mile may have raised more questions than answers but the other races on the card triggered some big moves, both up and down the rankings, to coincide with the Year of the Snake. 

The Power Rankings are formed by asking a panel of 10 Hong Kong racing experts to each rank the Derby contenders one to 14. We use these lists to create a top 14, in order. The experts will continue to update lists at key times during the lead-up to March 23. 

NOTE: Previous ranking listed at the top of each profile table.

1. Noisy Boy (AUS)

PREVIOUS RANKING3
TRAINERDennis Yip
CURRENT RATING84
PREVIOUS TRAINERTodd Howlett

While a host of Derby contenders pressed their claims at Friday’s bumper Chinese New Year meeting at Sha Tin, a horse that was home in his stable has been elevated to top pick by our experts. Noisy Boy has not raced since his January 19 victory over 2000m and the Hong Kong Classic Cup on March 2 will be his chance to confirm his Derby credentials for trainer Dennis Yip.

Noisy Boy and Andrea Atzeni
NOISY BOY, ANDREA ATZENI / Sha Tin // 2025 /// Photo by HKJC

2. Packing Angel (NZ)

PREVIOUS RANKING5
TRAINERFrancis Lui
CURRENT RATING81
IMPORT TYPEPPG

Packing Angel is yet to race beyond 1400m but a dominant Class 3 win on the Chinese New Year undercard, his third in a row, took his rating to 81 which should guarantee him a Classic Cup start. A son of Melbourne Cup winner Shocking, he should thrive over more distance.

3. Mickley (IRE)

PREVIOUS RANKING6
TRAINERJohn Size
CURRENT RATING85
IMPORT TYPEEdward Bethell

Is Mickley a pretender or a contender? He made up a tremendous amount of ground from last in the Classic Mile, recording the second fastest last 200m, 400m, 600m and 800m to finish fifth. Our experts believe he is still on track for the Derby.

4. Stunning Peach (IRE)

PREVIOUS RANKING1
TRAINERTony Cruz
CURRENT RATING87
PREVIOUS NAMEIslandsinthestream
PREVIOUS TRAINERJoseph O'Brien

What to make of his effort against the older horses in the G3 Centenary Vase? He ran on for seventh, but faced an impossible task coming from last in a moderately run race. He was the only horse to break 11 seconds for the furlong twice and he was clearly fastest late. His lack of early speed is a concern.

5. My Wish (AUS)

PREVIOUS RANKING23
TRAINERMark Newnham
CURRENT RATING95
IMPORT TYPEPPG

The Classic Mile winner breaks into the top 14 after his tough victory for trainer Mark Newnham and jockey Luke Ferraris. He has won four of his six starts this term, finishing third at his other two outings, and he emerged as the best of an even bunch in the Classic Mile. Now rated 95, he is guaranteed a Derby start.

My Wish claiming the Hong Kong Classic Mile
MY WISH, LUKE FERRARIS / G1 Hong Kong Classic Mile // Sha Tin /// 2025 //// Photo by HKJC

6. Divano (AUS)

PREVIOUS RANKING30
TRAINERFrancis Lui
CURRENT RATING91
IMPORT TYPEPPG

Did well to almost overcome gate 14 in the Classic Mile under a savvy Blake Shinn ride, just falling a neck short after sluicing through the field from last. His pedigree does not suggest he will develop into a 2000m horse but he defied expectations at his first outing at a mile.

7. Mid Winter Wind (SAF)

PREVIOUS RANKINGUnranked
TRAINERMark Newnham
CURRENT RATING86
PREVIOUS TRAINERSean Tarry

A stunning last-to-first win in a Class 3 over 1200m at his first start in Hong Kong catapulted Mid Winter Wind into the Hong Kong Derby picture. A Group 3 winner over 1400m in South Africa, he struggled at a mile and 2000m in his final two starts before moving to Hong Kong. It will be a rush to get him to the Derby but he’s certainly on the radar.

8. Rubylot (AUS)

PREVIOUS RANKING7
TRAINERDavid Hayes
CURRENT RATING93
IMPORT TYPEPPG

The Derby concern about Rubylot before the Classic Mile was whether he would handle a two-turn 2000m. While his sixth in the first leg of the Four-Year-Old Classic Series did little to answer whether he would make a Derby horse, he did finish off solidly from near last at the 300m. Our panel has him at a similar level to before the Classic Mile.

9. Packing Hermod (AUS)

PREVIOUS RANKING4
TRAINERFrancis Lui
CURRENT RATING93
IMPORT TYPEPPG

Packing Hermod had every chance in the Classic Mile, sticking on evenly for third having been given a perfect ride from Zac Purton. On pedigree, 1600m should be at the upper end of his stamina reserves and the Classic Mile seemed to back that up. Owner Edmund Lee has said that he is only 50/50 to press on towards the Derby.

10. Cap Ferrat (AUS)

PREVIOUS RANKING2
TRAINERFrancis Lui
CURRENT RATING83
PREVIOUS TRAINERChris Waller

The biggest faller from our first rankings is Cap Ferrat, who weakened after a wide run to finish 12th in the Classic Mile. It was just his second run in Hong Kong and his first in seven weeks but it was still a lacklustre effort. Given his best efforts in Australia came at 2000m he still remains a Derby hope, but he is still a maiden and there are enough reasons to oppose him.

11. Silvery Breeze (AUS)

PREVIOUS RANKING10
TRAINERDavid Eustace
RATING71
PREVIOUS NAMEBinotto
PREVIOUS TRAINERAnthony & Sam Freedman

Silvery Breeze could not overcome a sedate tempo set by New Future Folks in a Class 3 over 1600m on Friday, but he still flashed home to finish third in race-best sectionals. Trainer David Eustace is set to run him in another Class 3 over 1800m this Sunday before potentially heading to the Classic Cup.

12. Bundle Award (AUS)

PREVIOUS RANKING11
TRAINERJohn Size
RATING75
PREVIOUS NAMEPrince Prawn
PREVIOUS TRAINERAllan & Jason Williams

A Class 3 win off a rating of 68 over 1400 metres in mid-January is hardly a traditional springboard to Derby success but do you dare doubt John Size? His last Derby winner Ping Hai Star won off 77 over 1400 metres on January 7 and qualified off two more wins over the same trip before jumping to the Derby distance. This would be next level but is this crop as strong as the class of 2018? It could be a year for a Derby winner that comes from left-field.

Bundle Award wins at Sha Tin
BUNDLE AWARD, JAMES McDONALD / Sha Tin // 2025 /// Photo by HKJC

13. Dragon Joy (NZ)

PREVIOUS RANKING12
TRAINERRicky Yiu
RATING70
IMPORT TYPEPPG

The form around Dragon Joy stood up well enough at the Chinese New Year meeting through Fast Network, Silvery Breeze and Mickley. He was in receipt of plenty of weight from those horses when they met on January 12 but should get his shot at them at level weights in the months ahead.

14. Fast Network (NZ)

PREVIOUS RANKING13
TRAINERDennis Yip
CURRENT RATING85
IMPORT TYPEPPG

Christophe Soumillon put Fast Network into the Classic Mile at the right time but he simply couldn’t match My Wish late. Even Packing Hermod was pulling away in the last 50 metres, while the likes of Mickley and Rubylot were closing fast. It was the second start in a row where he weakened noticeably over the concluding stages and a drop in trip looks more suitable now. 

Expert Panel: David Morgan (Idol Horse), Andrew Hawkins (Idol Horse), Michael Cox (Idol Horse), Steven Ho (Idol Horse), Zoher Abdoolcarim (former TIME Magazine Asia Editor and Hong Kong racing expert), Pete Twomey (bloodstock agent), Grant Courtney (horse racing photographer), Mike Doleuze (Hong Kong form expert), Luke Middlebrook (Hong Kong form expert).

Idol Horse is a multi-language global racing news network.

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