2025 BMW Hong Kong Derby: Power Rankings

The BMW Hong Kong Derby is a race that shapes Hong Kong racing. For four-year-olds and run over 2000 metres at Sha Tin, it is the most prestigious race in the city and sparks a year-round search from owners to find the right horse. 

The traditional path to the Derby is Hong Kong’s four-year-old Classic Series that starts with the Hong Kong Classic Mile over 1600 metres on January 31, continues with the Hong Kong Classic Cup over 1800 metres on March 2, and concludes with the Derby on March 23. 

Horses can qualify for and win the Derby without taking the four-year-old series route but competition for a spot in the 14-horse field is tough. 

As the race gets closer, contenders need to find form and earn the ratings points needed to qualify. 

Two months out from the Derby, we asked a panel of 10 Hong Kong racing experts to each rank the possible Derby contenders one to 14. We use these lists to create a top 14, in order. The experts will continue to update lists at key times during the lead-up to March 23. 

1. Stunning Peach (IRE)

Stunning Peach (pictured above) is an Irish import with two Group 1 seconds on his resume for former trainer Joseph O’Brien. Bounced back from a disastrous defeat as favourite at Happy Valley in early December with a solid third over the Derby distance of 2000 metres at Sha Tin last Sunday. Will skip the Classic Mile and is Zac Purton’s pick … for now. 

So good, Noisy Boy! 👏

Dennis Yip's 4YO bags back-to-back wins and a first in Class 2 with @Atzenijockey… #4YOSeries | #TripleCrown | #HKracing pic.twitter.com/S7YUZ2fS7Q

— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) January 19, 2025

2. Cap Ferrat (AUS)

How does a horse with zero wins from 14 lifetime starts end up second on this list? It might reflect just how even this year’s group is and the lack of an obvious standout. It is also about the strength of this horse’s form, albeit without winning.

Cap Ferrat ran in high quality races in Australia and mixed it with Ceolwulf, Tom Kitten and Riff Rocket. Was strong first-up second to Mickley. May have enhanced his ranking by not racing since while others damaged their reputations with poor runs. 

3. Noisy Boy (AUS)

Another Australian import with what seems unimpressive form on paper, Noisy Boy had a single win in a maiden for three-year-olds from 13 starts. Has adapted quickly to Hong Kong though and can run a strong 2000 metres. Yip won last year’s Derby with Massive Sovereign and he is bullish about his chances this year with Noisy Boy.

4. Packing Hermod (AUS)

Has come through the grades from unraced prospect to four-time winner from six starts to be the equal-highest rated Derby entrant. The question marks for Lui’s horse are distance and, being by speed sire Rubick, pedigree. The Classic Mile at 1600 metres will tell us more. Zac Purton has chosen him for the Classic Mile but the jockey also has distance doubts and is keeping his Derby options open.

5. Packing Angel (NZ)

Last year’s champion trainer Francis Lui has three of the top five in the rankings. Packing Angel has gone up 20 ratings points with back-to-back wins over 1400 metres under Purton. Untapped.

Soft win, Packing Angel! Francis Lui's 4YO goes back-to-back at Sha Tin with a smart first Class 3 success under @zpurton… 💥 #LoveRacing | #HKracing pic.twitter.com/qJE6GzO0N1

— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) January 5, 2025

6. Mickley (IRE)

A Britannia Handicap winner raced in the United Kingdom by the Siu family, who are hoping the gelding can carry the iconic black-and-red silks to Derby glory for the first time. Had Mickley not raced since his impressive win in mid-December he might be top of this list. Mickley has run three times in quick succession since and has been desperately unlucky at times. 

7. Rubylot (AUS)

When Hayes elected to bypass the Classic Mile and four-year-old series with sprinter Ka Ying Rising, he knew he had another solid contender coming through the ranks. Rubylot will be one of the favourites in the Classic Mile but, also by Rubick, he has that same pedigree query.

He is in form, has a racing style that suits Hong Kong and has earned his rating. But Hayes admits the two-turn, 2000-metre course of the Derby could bring him undone.

8. Johannes Brahms (IRE)

Pierre Ng has taken a step beyond rising star status as a trainer already but if he can transform one of his big bloodstock buys into a Group 1 horse it will add an important dimension to his profile.

Johannes Brahms is one of his three Coolmore-sourced imports (along with Cambridge and Naval Force) but has adapted the quickest. Clearly a miler in the future, Ng is hoping he can get Johannes Brahms to settle sufficiently to compete at 2000 metres. 

9. Markwin (AUS)

Uncomplicated type that has been brought through the grades expertly by his impressive second-season trainer. Like 2022 winner Romantic Warrior, a purchase out of the Hong Kong International Sale. Went close over a mile last start. Chance to show if he has the necessary class in the Classic Mile.

Monster run, Dragon Joy! 😳

Matthew Poon sweeps home on Ricky Yiu's charge to overhaul Markwin in the Class 3 – restricted to four-year-olds – at Sha Tin this afternoon… #LoveRacing | #HKracing pic.twitter.com/UjSxM7npQq

— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) January 12, 2025

10. Silvery Breeze (AUS)

It is rare for a first-season trainer to have a Derby runner let alone a serious contender and if David Eustace can qualify Silvery Breeze for the big one that would give his career a boost. Trending in the right direction. Query on his upside and also the strength of the four-year-old restricted Class 3 he finished fifth in though.

11. Bundle Award (AUS)

A Class 3 win off a rating of 68 over 1400 metres in mid-January is hardly a traditional springboard to Derby success but do you dare doubt John Size?

His last Derby winner Ping Hai Star won off 77 over 1400 metres on January 7 and qualified off two more wins over that trip before jumping to the Derby distance. This would be next level but is this as strong a year as 2018? It could be a Derby for a winner from left-field. 

12. Dragon Joy (NZ)

Dragon Joy burst into calculations with a last-to-first win in the Class 3 for four-year-olds. That was with a light weight but the son of Saxon Warrior is finding form at the right time and seems tactically versatile enough to take advantage of different scenarios. 

13. Fast Network (NZ)

When Fast Network was defeated as 1.3 favourite over 1000 metres on December 15, nobody was thinking Classic Mile, let alone Derby. Except maybe trainer Dennis Yip. With blinkers off, Fast Network was then a promising third with a big weight in the mile race for four-year-olds. Intriguing runner at a mile but big query beyond that. 

14. Romantic Thor (IRE)

Would have ranked higher but for a disappointing effort last Sunday. Will need to trial before racing again. Shum needs to reset Romantic Thor’s campaign but not many horses run that badly and turn it around in time for the Derby.   

Expert Panel: David Morgan (Idol Horse), Andrew Hawkins (Idol Horse), Michael Cox (Idol Horse), Steven Ho (Idol Horse), Zoher Abdoolcarim (former TIME Magazine Asia Editor and Hong Kong racing expert), Pete Twomey (bloodstock agent), Grant Courtney (horse racing photographer), Mike Doleuze (Hong Kong form expert), Luke Middlebrook (Hong Kong form expert).