Ka Ying Rising is back at Canterbury Park to defend his TAB Everest crown. As Adam Pengilly reported on Tuesday, the Hong Kong superstar’s first Sydney outing was more prance than fireworks, with a Randwick barrier trial on October 6 up next.
The bigger story may be what comes after. Pengilly reports that Sydney and Melbourne are both pushing to stage a three-horse showdown next autumn between Ka Ying Rising and Australia’s two best mares, Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi. The contest would be run either over 1500m at Rosehill on Golden Slipper Day, or over 1400m at Flemington a week later.
On this week’s Idol Horse News Desk Podcast, Pengilly joined Michael Cox to go deeper on who is driving the push, why the Hong Kong Jockey Club holds the key, and who wins if it ever happens.
The conversation below has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Michael Cox: Ka Ying Rising’s first trackwork at Canterbury was a bit of an anticlimax. What did you see?
Adam Pengilly: He literally pranced. Two and a half laps of the Canterbury track, about 25 minutes out there, and then back to his quarantine base. But casting my eye over him, he looked healthy, his coat looked great, he looked bright and alert. He’s showing no ill effects from the travel.
What has David Hayes changed from last year’s preparation?
He definitely feels he had the horse a little too fresh and underdone heading into The Everest last year. We saw that with the barrier trial, where he probably performed below expectations. Then there was all the wild online speculation about his health and fitness, which was unfounded but caused betting markets to shift abruptly. This time he’ll do a lot more slower work, and they want a really good hit-out in that Randwick trial. It’s scary to think he won the race comfortably last year and David, by his own admission, didn’t quite get the preparation right.
Where is the push for this three-horse race coming from?
As always with Australian racing, it’s a little bit complicated. There’s definitely a tug of war between Sydney and Melbourne. Sydney should have some advantage, because this is the second time Ka Ying Rising has been down to Sydney and he seems to thrive at Canterbury. Golden Slipper Day works from a date perspective because it gives him time to get back to Hong Kong for the Chairman’s Sprint Prize.
On the other side, you’ve got the Victorian officials, who say they first broached this with David Hayes months ago. It would be the first time we’d see Ka Ying Rising back at Flemington, David’s home track.
What’s the complication with the Hong Kong Jockey Club?
The Jockey Club has built a much closer relationship with Australian race clubs through World Pool. Hong Kong punters love the quinella place. If you only have a three-horse race, you’re virtually abandoning that bet option straight away, and it’s pretty much straight-out win betting. Ka Ying Rising will still be popular, but you’re taking away such a popular bet type. That’s something the Jockey Club will have to work through.
And from a pure racing perspective, why might a full field suit someone better?
Peter Moody has privately said he’d love a full field for Sheza Alibi. If you draw a mock speed map of the three, she’d be last. She’s the type who wants to blend into a race with genuine tempo. I think he’s worried about a contest where Ka Ying Rising goes straight to the front, Autumn Glow tries to get on his hammer, and Sheza Alibi is out the back and struggles to make up the ground.
Who ultimately makes the call?
If it was solely down to David Hayes, I reckon he’d jump at it. He’s untouchable in Hong Kong, and there’s not a horse likely to emerge in the next 12 to 18 months who can give him a shake. But it’s going to rest with the owner and the Hong Kong Jockey Club, and they might be harder to convince. I think the race needs Ka Ying Rising more than Ka Ying Rising needs the race.
Over 1500m at Rosehill on current form. Who wins and why?
It would be hard to go past Ka Ying Rising. He hasn’t been tested over the trip, and from a punter’s point of view that’s always a nagging doubt. But from what we’ve seen of him at 1400m at Sha Tin, 1500m doesn’t look like it will pose too much of a problem. Rosehill can suit the leaders, as one of the firmer tracks in Australia, so he might be hard to run down. Autumn Glow would try to give him a race, but I think Zac would have a little too much up his sleeve.
Is it any different at Flemington over 1400m?
The longer straight would give a horse like Sheza Alibi more time to balance up and accelerate into the contest. But they can take the pressure out of those races approaching the turn, and he might get a breather. It could be a more interesting contest, but the shorter trip probably makes it even harder for her. He’d start the warm favourite over both trips. In his current form, I’m not sure you can beat him.
Is the local Everest contingent stronger than last year?
To be perfectly honest, no. Mazu has been a grand old campaigner, but if he’s winning one of the key lead-ups in The Shorts, we as Australian sprinters are in trouble. Joliestar’s run was quite good first back from Royal Ascot, Headwall hit the line well, and Ninja carved out decent sectionals. But I can’t see them getting within cooee of Ka Ying Rising at his best. Tempted, second to him last year, is probably still our number one seed, and Guest House will force his way into the conversation. Three and a half weeks out, it almost looks like a times-and-margins job.
Could rain save the locals?
I’ve got bad news. We’ve had a very dry winter and there’s not much rain in the long-range forecast. And David Hayes cheekily suggested that, as a young horse at Lindsay Park, his sons reckoned Ka Ying Rising went like an absolute rocket on wet tracks. So he has no concerns about a downpour, which I don’t think we’ll get anyway.
Listen to the full episode of the Idol Horse News Desk Podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. ∎
