The Everest: Idol Horse Power Rankings (October 8)
Ka Ying Rising is beaten in a Randwick trial again, the rain dance begins for his rivals, and the field all but fills with nine days to run. Our experts rank The Everest contenders.
The Everest: Idol Horse Power Rankings (October 8)
Ka Ying Rising is beaten in a Randwick trial again, the rain dance begins for his rivals, and the field all but fills with nine days to run. Our experts rank The Everest contenders.
8 October, 2026With The Everest little more than a week away, the field is close to full and the weather remains the main concern for Ka Ying Rising. The champion was shaded by a neck by Ninja on a Soft 7 track in his Randwick trial on Tuesday, but David Hayes said he trialled better than he did a year ago, when he was also beaten before going on to win the world’s richest turf race.
Tempted’s three-length win in the G2 Premiere Stakes keeps her well clear of the rest, and Hayes named her as the main danger if the track stays rain-affected. Guest House is out for the spring with a hamstring injury, and Coolmore has replaced him with the 2022 winner, Giga Kick.
Joliestar, Savvy Hallie, Spicy Martini and Giga Kick have all been confirmed since Saturday, and the TAB is finalising a deal for Jimmysstar. That would leave James Harron and Yulong as the last slot-holders to name runners.
Here’s how our experts rate the challengers chasing the champ.
1. Ka Ying Rising –
Age/Sex: 6YO Gelding
Trainer: David Hayes
Race Record: 24:22-2-0
Biggest Win: G1 The Everest (2025)
He led in Tuesday’s 1000m trial until Ninja edged past late in 59.46 seconds. Hayes was happier than last year, explaining that “we screw him down for the race”, not the trial. Asked whether Zac Purton would be pleased, he said: “He is never happy.” Purton’s verdict was “happy enough”, and Hayes then had a playful dig at his jockey over the horse’s only two defeats, both early in his career: “I don’t know how Zac got him beat twice.” The horse has won 21 in a row since and enters The Everest as the world’s highest rated racehorse. Shane Dye is not convinced he wants a wet track, but if he improves from trial to race as he did last year, “he’ll win. He’s a freak.”
2. Tempted –
Age/Sex: 4YO Mare
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Race Record: 13:8-2-2
Biggest Win: G1 Surround Stakes (2026)
Hayes named her the main danger on a rain-affected track, and with reason: she is four from four on wet ground, two of those wins at Randwick. She was still 10th at the 400m in the Premiere before running her last 600m in 33.03 seconds. Ka Ying Rising gave her 7.5kg last year; this time he gives her only two kilos.
3. Joliestar –
Age/Sex: 6YO Mare
Trainer: Chris Waller
Race Record: 23:10-5-4
Biggest Win: G1 TJ Smith Stakes (2026)
Waller and his partners confirmed her on Wednesday for a third straight Everest, after she finished seventh in 2024 and fifth last year. She ran fourth under James McDonald in Tuesday’s trial, her last piece of work before going straight from her neck second in The Shorts into the race.
“Her form over the past 12 months has been that of the premier Australian sprinter,” Waller said. “She went to Royal Ascot and performed admirably against some of the best sprinters in the world, which gave everyone involved enormous confidence in just how good she is.
“To have her represent the slot for a third consecutive time is a fantastic result, and we’re incredibly excited to see her back at Royal Randwick.”
4. Angel Capital –
Age/Sex: 5YO Horse
Trainer: Chris Waller
Race Record: 18:6-2-2
Biggest Win: G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (2026)
He finished sixth in Tuesday’s trial. He ran for Coolmore last year and is expected to take Yulong’s slot, one of the last two still to be filled.
Angel Capital had built a reputation as a horse who was consistent, but couldn’t break through at top level before his last-start breakthrough in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.
“He’s been unlucky so many times in Group 1’s,” Waller’s assistant Darren Beadman said after that win, which came at the horse’s ninth attempt at top level. “Congratulations to Mr Zhang and the whole Yulong team. They are heavily invested here in Australia.
“He’s been deserving of the Group 1 win for so many runs. The way this track panned out today with a good, strong speed up front, Ben (Melham) has the utmost faith in the horse, and he rode him to perfection.”
5. Jimmysstar –
Age/Sex: 7YO Gelding
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Race Record: 30:12-5-4
Biggest Win: G1 Manikato Stakes (2026)
Owner Ozzie Kheir expected to finalise a deal on Wednesday for him to run in the TAB’s slot again, with Nash Rawiller to ride. He ran third for the TAB last year, and Shane Dye puts him among the horses who want rain.
An X-factor for Jimmystar is the booking of big-race genius Nash Rawiller, who has a knack of producing left-field tactics on outsiders like his move to the outside rail aboard 40-to-one shot Think It Over in the 2022 Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
6. Blue Door ↑1
Age/Sex: 3YO Filly
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Race Record: 4:2-2-0
Biggest Win: G3 Heritage Stakes (2026)
She moves up one without racing after Guest House’s exit due to an injury. Jamie Melham gave up the Caulfield Cup ride on Half Yours to take the mount, and with 51kg and natural speed she shapes as the likely leader.
Her early speed and light weight make Blue Door an influential runner – she looms as the only rival that could match Ka Ying Rising’s early speed. After her Heritage Stakes win Nash Rawiller was effusive in praise, comparing the filly to his former champion More Joyous, who was raced by the same ownership. “She’s gifted, isn’t she! She’s just explosive,” he said. “It’s just harnessing it, I think. She’s too quick for her own good. It’s not very often you pull up and think, gee, this reminds me of a smaller version of More Joyous. I don’t know if it’s the colours of her, or just the long action. She’s exciting.
“She travelled well. A couple of runs under her belt … she was really solid right to the line.”
7. Headwall ↑1
Age/Sex: 7YO Gelding
Trainer: Matthew Smith
Race Record: 20:7-6-4
Biggest Win: G2 Concorde Stakes (2025)
He was scratched from the Premiere, but Smith has since had a positive blood profile on him and gave him an easy trial for fifth behind Ninja. He is another who wants rain, and Smith is waiting for it: “One day he’ll jump midfield and the heavens will open up.”
“He’s good enough to win a Group 1 over 1200 (metres), there’s no doubt about that. He’s been placed in them a number of times. It’s the right race for him. He should have a shot at it.”
8. Ninja ↑1
Age/Sex: 4YO Gelding
Trainer: Michael Freedman
Race Record: 10:5-1-2
Biggest Win: G2 Hobartville Stakes (2026)
He moves up one after beating Ka Ying Rising by a neck under Tommy Berry in Tuesday’s trial, a run that makes up for missing the Premiere Stakes. It also put a price on him: a 1% share sold for $55,000 at the Inglis Digital online sale this week, valuing the gelding at $5.5 million, and the buyer said he lifted his budget after watching the trial. Even an Everest win would pay that share 1% of the owner’s split of the slot, $7 million, A$70,000, before the slot-holder and the stable take their cut. Shane Dye is not getting carried away: “Ninja trialled a bit better. That doesn’t mean Ninja will beat him on raceday.”
He cost $380,000 as a yearling at the 2024 Magic Millions sale and now races for more than 1700 owners through MyRacehorse, alongside his breeder John Camilleri, whose Fairway Thoroughbreds slot he fills. Berry wants him back on the speed after the widest barrier forced a conservative ride in The Shorts. “He loves to absorb that pressure and can sprint off it,” Berry said. “Going forward you’ll see us riding him a lot more positive like we have in the past.”
9. Savvy Hallie NEW
Age/Sex: 4YO Mare
Trainer: Brad Widdup
Race Record: 14:4-5-1
Biggest Win: G2 Sheraco Stakes (2026)
She was locked into Mulberry Racing’s slot two days after her three-length second to Tempted in the Premiere. She also led in the Surround Stakes in February before Tempted just caught her, and her consistency over 1200m makes her a genuine place chance.
Rain would not hurt her. She won her first two starts last spring on heavy ground, the second of them a Group 2 at Randwick. A $320,000 yearling, she now carries the colours of Mulberry Racing, the partnership between Sydney businessman Mike Gregg and Widdup, which ran its own horse Jedibeel last year. “Savvy Hallie deserves her spot,” Widdup said.
10. Marhoona NEW
Age/Sex: 4YO Mare
Trainer: Brad Widdup
Race Record: 11:4-4-2
Biggest Win: G1 Golden Slipper (2025)
She finished third in the Premiere, a nose behind Savvy Hallie, and The Everest would be her third run back, a stage at which she is two from two. The Golden Slipper winner still needs a slot, and the only one not spoken for is James Harron’s.
She won the Golden Slipper at only her third start in March 2025, then won the Heritage Stakes first-up that spring under 58kg, the race Blue Door won this year. Freedman said before the Concorde that the Sydney Stakes on Everest day “would be a nice race for her too” if no slot came. That race is also a way in: up to six Sydney Stakes acceptors can be named as Everest emergencies.
11. Giga Kick NEW
Age/Sex: 7YO Gelding
Trainer: Clayton Douglas
Race Record: 25:9-3-3
Biggest Win: The Everest (2022)
Coolmore’s replacement for Guest House won this race in 2022 and was second in 2024, and he comes into it third-up, which Douglas has called the horse’s “sweet spot”. His spring form is thin: unplaced in the Moir, then eighth and four lengths from Jimmysstar in the Manikato. Dylan Gibbons rides, with blinkers likely, and says any rain would help.
His last win came in the G1 Champions Sprint at Flemington last November under Mark Zahra, who is committed to Half Yours in the Caulfield Cup on the same day. That opened the door for Gibbons, fresh from winning the Flight Stakes on Global Goal last Saturday, and he likes what he is getting: “His picture’s there on the wall, and he’s run second in it before.”
12. Spicy Martini NEW
Age/Sex: 5YO Mare
Trainer: Toby Edmonds
Race Record: 13:6-1-0
Biggest Win: G1 Stradbroke Handicap (2026)
The Stradbroke winner took Inglis’s slot on Saturday, with Taylor Marshall to ride. She was fourth in The Shorts first-up despite losing a shoe, though Mazu and King’s Secret, who both finished ahead of her, were unplaced in the Premiere.
Edmonds bought her for $8000 through Inglis Digital, and she has since won $2.73 million. Managing owner Holly Penfold says she has made a habit of proving people wrong: “She’s always underestimated and she always over-performs.” Edmonds will drive her down from the Gold Coast in Everest week and stable her at Peter Snowden’s Randwick base. ∎
