The Everest: Idol Horse Power Rankings (October 1)

Jimmysstar won the G1 Manikato Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield on Sunday, 24 hours after Blue Door led all the way in the G3 Heritage Stakes (1100m) at Rosehill. Both results reshaped The Everest Idol Horse Power Rankings.

Newgate and GPI Racing locked Blue Door in this week, making her the fourth confirmed starter alongside Ka Ying Rising, Ninja and Headwall. Jimmysstar, with a fourth Group 1 in hand, is still waiting on a call. Guest House found trouble in a Golden Rose won by Warwoven.

The G2 Premiere Stakes (1200m) on Saturday is the final lead-up for Tempted and Headwall, and possibly Ninja. Ka Ying Rising trials at Randwick on Tuesday.

Here’s how our experts rate the challengers chasing the champ.

1. Ka Ying Rising –

Age/Sex: 6YO Gelding
Trainer: David Hayes
Race Record: 24:22-2-0
Biggest Win: G1 The Everest (2025)

Settled at his Canterbury Park quarantine base, he trials at Randwick on October 6 under Zac Purton and won’t race again before October 17. Nothing at Caulfield or Rosehill at the weekend changed the view at the top.

This time last year the build-up was far less calm. Six days before the 2025 race, a post on X claimed he had been scratched, was lame behind and had gone off his feed. None of it was true, but the market reacted anyway: he drifted from $1.75 to $2.60 on Betfair and the TAB suspended betting until stewards confirmed he was fine. The post appeared under the name of Gareth Hall, who rang JD Hayes to say his account had been hacked, and Hayes said his phone “went into meltdown for six hours”. Ka Ying Rising settled it on the Saturday, beating Tempted by a length and a quarter.

Another cheeky X-driven rumour emerged on Wednesday – completely unfounded – claiming the horse was not 100%. This time it didn’t get the same traction as last year’s media meltdown. Ka Ying Rising allayed any fears with a tidy piece of work ahead of his key barrier trial next Tuesday. 

2. Tempted –

Age/Sex: 4YO Mare
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Race Record: 13:8-2-2
Biggest Win: G1 Surround Stakes (2026)

Holds second with nothing required of her at the weekend. Her Concorde Stakes win over Headwall set the campaign up, and the Premiere Stakes on Saturday is her last run before The Everest. She remains Godolphin’s first choice for Randwick, and Beiwacht’s Manikato run did nothing to change that.

Maher says she is better than last year but she will have to be – because so is Ka Ying Rising. 

3. Joliestar –

Age/Sex: 6YO Mare
Trainer: Chris Waller
Race Record: 23:10-5-4
Biggest Win: G1 TJ Smith Stakes (2026)

Waller is following last year’s plan with the mare. She goes four weeks from her neck second to Mazu in The Shorts straight into The Everest in the trainer’s own slot, which makes the race itself her second-up run.

4. Angel Capital ↑1

Age/Sex: 5YO Horse
Trainer: Chris Waller
Race Record: 18:6-2-2
Biggest Win: G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (2026)

Up one without racing, as Guest House slipped below him after a Golden Rose disappointment. The Sir Rupert Clarke win is still the strongest case for Yulong’s slot. Head of Racing Danny Rolston said last week they would not lock him in until they had seen how he came through the run.

5. Jimmysstar ↑6

Age/Sex: 7YO Gelding
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Race Record: 30:12-5-4
Biggest Win: G1 Manikato Stakes (2026)

The scenario outlined by connections before the Memsie was simple: come back like the old Jimmy and The Everest talk restarts. He wasn’t convincing that day – but ‘Jimmy’ was back in the Manikato. Wearing blinkers for the first time, he jumped slowly and settled at the tail of the field. Ethan Brown then brought him to the extreme outside and he showed his explosive finish for a fourth career Group 1. 

“He jumped terribly and he rode him confidently and went at the right time,” Maher said. Brown gave the gear some credit but more to the horse: “he’s as genuine as they come.” 

Third to Ka Ying Rising last year, he now needs a slot. If Randwick plays similarly on October 17, he could be placed again.

6. Guest House ↓2

Age/Sex: 3YO Colt
Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr
Race Record: 6:3-1-1
Biggest Win: G1 Golden Slipper (2026)

Sixth in the Golden Rose (1400m) behind Warwoven, the colt he beat in the San Domenico. He didn’t get a clean run, and the step up in trip blunted the turn of foot that broke the Rosehill track record on his return. The bigger question was whether Coolmore would keep him on the Everest path. Kent says he has pulled up well and that plan remains in place. 

“I’m pretty sure he’ll go back to The Everest and like everything else, he’ll be trying to beat Ka Ying Rising,” Price told Racenet.

“Coolmore owns the slot and it’s not confirmed but he’s in the mix.

“I think if you get a high-pressure race and a soft track, it certainly helps my horse.”

7. Blue Door NEW

Age/Sex: 3YO Filly
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Race Record: 4:2-2-0
Biggest Win: G3 Heritage Stakes (2026)

She led throughout under Nash Rawiller and kicked two and a quarter lengths clear of Ciaron’s Star in the Heritage, then went straight into The Everest field. Baker made his pitch to owner John Singleton straight after the race, live on Sky Racing: “Singo, are you there?!” 

Within days Newgate and GPI Racing had secured her for their slot. 

She had resumed with seconds to Chilly Girl in The Rosebud and to Guest House in the San Domenico. At Randwick she will carry 51kg, in a field so far short of front-running speed. “With only 51kgs, she will be in front for a long way,” Newgate’s Henry Field said. 

8. Headwall ↑1

Age/Sex: 7YO Gelding
Trainer: Matthew Smith
Race Record: 20:7-6-4
Biggest Win: G2 Concorde Stakes (2025)

Up one without racing, as Mazu and Beiwacht slid beneath him. He is confirmed for the Whitby, Werrett, Madden and McCann slot. He runs in Saturday’s Premiere Stakes for the race fitness Smith wants after a year off up to his second in the Concorde, and his fifth in The Shorts last time included the fastest last 600m of the meeting.

9. Ninja ↓3

Age/Sex: 4YO Gelding
Trainer: Michael Freedman
Race Record: 10:5-1-2
Biggest Win: G2 Hobartville Stakes (2026)

Down three without racing, as Jimmysstar, Blue Door and Headwall moved past. His place in the field isn’t in question: the Fairway Thoroughbreds slot was the first of the challenger spots confirmed. Saturday’s Premiere Stakes is his chance to improve on his ninth in The Shorts.

10. Mazu ↓3

Age/Sex: 8YO Gelding
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Race Record: 47:11-4-9
Biggest Win: G1 Doomben 10,000 (2022)

There has been no word on a slot, and his trainer still isn’t asking for one. Pride made it clear after The Shorts that a fourth Everest isn’t where he thinks Mazu can win, and the decision sits with Triple Crown Syndications.

11. Beiwacht ↓3

Age/Sex: 4YO Horse
Trainer: Chris Waller
Race Record: 15:4-3-1
Biggest Win: G1 Memsie Stakes (2026)

His connections framed the Manikato as a test of whether he was a genuine 1200m horse, and finishing ninth behind Jimmysstar didn’t settle that in his favour. With Tempted established as Godolphin’s first choice, the Memsie winner looks more likely to step back up in trip for the Golden Eagle.

12. King’s Secret –

Age/Sex: 5YO Gelding
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Race Record: 15:6-3-3
Biggest Win: Listed Canterbury Sprint (2026)

Holds his place without racing. He was third beaten a neck by stablemate Mazu in The Shorts, finishing ahead of both Headwall and Ninja, and remains the other Pride sprinter in the frame.

The ever-patient Pride said earlier in the preparation that the 2027 Everest would be more likely for his horse. “I would have thought he’s 12 months away from running in those sorts of races,” he told the Sydney Morning Herald, while lamenting the lack of second tier sprinting options on the constantly changing Sydney programme. “The Concorde and Shorts used to be lesser races, but now they are $1 million and all the good horses go in them, so I think they need to put on some Listed, Group 3s or even just good open handicaps for these sort of horses.” ∎

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