Road To HKIR: The Big Questions
Sha Tin’s Jockey Club Sprint, Mile and Cup are the traditional ‘scene setters’ for the Hong Kong International Races. Idol Horse’s experts analyse Sunday’s Group 2 triple-header, and forecast what bearing it might have on December 8.
Which Horse, Trainer Or Jockey Does This Meeting Matter Most For?
David Morgan: Brenton Avdulla showed Hong Kong fans last season that he’s an accomplished big-race pilot, winning Group 1s at home and abroad with the Tony Cruz-trained California Spangle. He posted a solid 33 wins for the campaign as well and that all pegs him as being prominent in the bloc of ambitious middle-ranking riders who all believe they can move up and make a third or fourth spot in the premiership their own.
Partnering a big-name horse to big wins, and, most importantly, winning on Hong Kong’s number one day in December, would go a long way to boosting Avdulla above the talented middle tier to where he wants to be. He already has a Group 3 score to his name this term, but the Hong Kong circuit is as fickle as you’ll find, and he is now three in a row without a win on California Spangle. If he can land Sunday’s Sprint against the hot-favourite Ka Ying Rising, he will be flavour of the month, for sure, and he will also keep that astute and stern judge of a jockey’s talents, Cruz, well onside going into the big one.
Michael Cox: This is an important day for two-time champion trainer David Hayes. The Australian is four years into his patchy second spell in Hong Kong and finally has a horse that could get him back on the Group 1 winners’ board for the first time since Fifty Stars won the Australian Cup in March 2020. His current stable star Ka Ying Rising has ascended the ranks with aplomb and his last start win in the G2 Premier Bowl was impressive to say the least: the expectation is for another smart win en route to the G1 Hong Kong Sprint.
Defeat here alone would not be disastrous, but if tied to defeat in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint in December, it would doubtless set loose negative whispers about the fortunes of a trainer who set expectations so high when he returned in the summer of 2020.
Andrew Hawkins: It has been a typically quiet start to the season for John Size, but it is so often around this time that his operation will ramp up and his championship bid begins. Size has two runners in both the Sprint (Helios Express, Howdeepisyourlove) and the Mile (Beauty Eternal, Red Lion) as well as G3 Ladies’ Purse winner Ensued in the Cup. Whether any of his five runners can emerge as a December contender remains to be seen – only Beauty Eternal, an upset winner of the G1 Champions Mile in April, is at that level yet – but expect this meeting to signal the start of Size’s quest for a 13th trainers’ title.
One Or Two Big Names Dominate Each Race, But Could There Be A Shock On The Cards?
David Morgan: The likelihood is that we will see the big guns enhance their credentials for Group 1 glory next month. But it’ll be well worth keeping an eye on Helios Express who won the Hong Kong Classic Mile and the Hong Kong Classic Cup last season before apparently failing to stay the 2000m of the Hong Kong Derby. He stepped back to 1200m for the first time in 11 months when second last month behind Ka Ying Rising in the G2 Premier Bowl Handicap.
He has a lot to find on official ratings, but he should have a fair few points in the bag still to play with, and can be expected to come on plenty for his first-up effort.
Andrew Hawkins: Could Romantic Warrior be vulnerable first-up? He is so far ahead of his rivals on ratings that a five-pound penalty appears inadequate. He won this race fresh in 2022 but was beaten first-up in Australia last season, finishing fourth to Gold Trip in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. There were so many factors at play there that it’s hard to suggest that he has any issues off a lay-off, but he is perhaps the one for which a loss could be explained away. If he is beaten, though, good luck finding the winner – it appears impossible outside of him.
Michael Cox: Is it a shock if there are no shocks? There is usually at least one result out of these three races that shakes things up ahead of HKIR, but I expect the three top picks in betting – Ka Ying Rising (Sprint), Galaxy Patch (Mile) and Romantic Warrior (Cup) – to justify their short odds.
Could Or Should The Club Do More To Encourage International Runners In These Races?
David Morgan: On the one hand, the Pattern was set-up so that Group 2 races were designated as ‘domestic’ championship races, so in that regard it’s understandable that the Club does not actively pursue overseas runners. On the other hand, the prize money is high and we’ve seen in the past that overseas contenders can enhance the day’s sport: Singapore’s greatest, Rocket Man, came in 14 years ago and had a thrilling dead-heat win in the Jockey Club Sprint before running second in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint.
It would add to the excitement and the build-up to December if these races were pitched as part of the ‘road to’ the HKIR for overseas runners, perhaps with a bonus thrown in for any offshore horse that’s able to win on both days.
Andrew Hawkins: The problem with these races is they feel like a repeat of what we’ve seen in numerous races over the past 12 months. The Sprint has new blood which is exciting, the Mile is intriguing but the Cup could use something else to differentiate it from contests like the Hong Kong Gold Cup. Surely, these races could prove valuable to runners from elsewhere – especially those on the cusp of getting a start in December.
For instance, export protocols are still being ironed out with South Africa, but the idea of a double hit – the Group 2 lead-up to the Group 1 final – would be lucrative for those who are flying halfway across the world. The Jockey Club has marketed the Hong Kong International Races as the “turf world championships” and perhaps these Group 2 lead-ups can be used to expand the Club’s global footprint, allowing horses from other countries the opportunity to win their way into the features in early December.
Michael Cox: If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. As David pointed out, Group 2s are designed to be domestic championship races and these ones fall a perfect three weeks before the foreign raiders roll into town for the big show. The ‘international trials’, as they were once known, are the perfect scene-setters for the Jockey Club’s self-proclaimed ‘greatest show on turf’ and anything more than occasional overseas involvement would dilute what is a clear point of difference.
What Will We Be Talking About Coming Out Of These Races Into December?
David Morgan: I expect Romantic Warrior to toy with his rivals in the Jockey Club Cup, even if he’s short of peak fitness, so there’ll be a lot of talk about his bid to become the first three-time winner of the Hong Kong Cup: and, while the talk is positive that Japanese super-filly Liberty Island is heading to Hong Kong for a mouth-watering match, will big names like her actually turn up to try and foil him?
Andrew Hawkins: Hong Kong has punched above its weight at the HKIR meeting in recent years, so the Jockey Club will likely be hoping for performances that are good but also not enough to scare off potential visitors ahead of fields being announced next week. In particular, the Sprint is looking thin in terms of visitors outside of Japan and another blitz from Ka Ying Rising could encourage internationals to look elsewhere.
Romantic Warrior versus Liberty Island looks one of the key match-ups in the Hong Kong Cup, if the Japanese star does make the trip, and with Liberty Island coming off a substandard run in the Tenno Sho (Autumn), Romantic Warrior could be beaten this weekend and still start favourite for that duel.
Michael Cox: Which Hong Kong miler is ready to take the sword from the stone and fill the immense void left by Golden Sixty? Galaxy Patch seems next in line and his trainer Pierre Ng is a precocious talent that seems ready for a proper headline horse. Ricky Yiu has designs on the throne too, with Voyage Bubble. What about Beauty Eternal for the wily veteran (and Ng’s former mentor) John Size?
None of these contenders are of the calibre of Golden Sixty or the previous mile master Beauty Generation so we could be talking about the making of a rivalry in what might be Hong Kong’s strongest divisions ∎
