Ka Ying Rising
High expectations — Weight — Greater aspirations
Ka Ying Rising isn’t just carrying the top weight of 135 pounds in the Chief Executive’s Cup Handicap; he’s also carrying the weight of public expectation.
When a horse racks up four consecutive wins, as Ka Ying Rising has, the expectation is naturally that the streak will continue.
This return in the traditional season-opening feature is only a stepping stone towards bigger goals, specifically December’s G1 Hong Kong Sprint, which he’ll target as his fourth start if all goes to plan. But first-up, the race conditions he faces are historically tough.
A worrying trend looms for horses carrying the number one saddlecloth: since 1997, none have managed to win this race. However, two horses—The Duke in 2004 and Winners Way in 2018—did succeed while carrying 130 pounds. The sweet spot for winning seems to lie between 113 and 119 pounds, with 18 of the last 29 winners carrying weights in that range.
Beauty Waves
Weight — Last-Start Winner
Beauty Waves ticks all the right boxes heading into Sunday’s feature race: a winning weight and the advantage of being a last-start winner.
Carrying 115 pounds, Beauty Waves looks to continue the recent trend where horses at this weight have been highly successful in the traditional season opener. Two years ago, Lucky Sweynesse (115 lbs) won this race but was upstaged under top weight last year by Victor The Winner (115 lbs). Overall, there have been four winners each at 113 lbs, 115 lbs, and 119 lbs.
Another trend worth noting is the success of last-start winners in this race. Twelve of the past 27 winners have come off a victory, compared to just four who finished as the runner-up. This year, three last-start winners are in the field: Ka Ying Rising (135 lbs), Majestic Knight (127 lbs), and Beauty Waves (115 lbs).
Electrifying finish! The Pierre Ng-trained Beauty Waves is one of 10 set to line up in Sunday's Class 1 HKSAR Chief Executive's Cup (1200m) at Sha Tin… 🏆
— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) September 5, 2024
Declarations 👉 https://t.co/b0taIUSday | #SeasonOpener | #HKracing pic.twitter.com/9V4KjI4Juy
Geneva
Costly four-start maiden
Will the market once again back the David Hall-trained Geneva as favourite for a fifth straight run in his quest for a maiden win?
Geneva has enticed his fans like a siren’s call, backed by high expectations despite falling short of victory. Hugh Bowman hasn’t lost faith, returning to the saddle for a fourth time in hopes of finally shaking the monkey off Geneva’s back.
But which way will the market lean on Sunday? The intrigue deepens with Master Mastermind, who, like Geneva, has been a crowd favourite twice but is still searching for his first win.
Highland Rahy
Gear Change — Class Drop — Second-season PP
Could a familiar piece of gear be just what Highland Rahy needs to yield a win this season? Francis Lui is giving the Irish import a fresh look on Sunday by applying cheek pieces, and the timing might be spot on.
Highland Rahy didn’t make an impression in his first three Hong Kong starts, but his last race of the season showed promise. He led until the 300-metre mark before fading to finish sixth, just over three lengths behind emerging talents King Miles and The Winnabe.
King Miles hands The Winnabe his first defeat! 🌟
— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) July 6, 2024
Victory edges Francis Lui to within one of Pierre Ng in the 2023/24 trainers' championship (66-67)… #HKracing pic.twitter.com/PQWadyb857
Although Highland Rahy seemed to be improving with racing—just as you’d expect to see from a Northern Hemisphere-bred PP—the handicapper has been kind, dropping him three points over the off-season. Now racing in Class 4 for the first time and with the cheek pieces, which helped him secure a win, a second, and a third in his final three starts pre-import, there could be better things to come.
Joyful Prosperity
Stable change — Trainer — Jockey
Can Joyful Prosperity in the first race continue trainer Danny Shum’s trend of being one of the fastest starters in the Hong Kong training ranks?
Shum’s recent stable acquisition has a few things going for him. He drops into Class 5 for the first time after showing promise in Class 4 without winning last term. Hugh Bowman returns to the saddle for the first time since July 2023, and it could be lightning striking twice, as Bowman won the first race last season.
Shum has built a reputation as one of the quickest trainers out of the blocks. Last season, he upheld this trend, being the most successful trainer in the Class 1 HKSAR Chief Executive’s Cup Handicap when Victor The Winner defeated Lucky Sweynesse, followed by two other wins on the card. However, Shum won’t have runners in Sunday’s feature race.
Alongside Joyful Prosperity, Shum will be looking for history to repeat itself with Supreme Lucky and Champion Method, both winners on the first meeting.
