Hong Kong 2024/25 Season Preview: Horses
Idol Horse’s Hong Kong racing experts make their cases for this season’s improvers, breakout stars and potential globetrotters, as well as some ‘way-too-early’ Hong Kong Derby predictions.
Which Horse Is Ready To Leap Up The Ratings This Season?
Steven Ho: At the risk of playing it safe, I’m confident Full Credit from the Mark Newnham stable is going to shine in 2024/25. Despite the Australian commencing his training career in Hong Kong just last season, he managed to achieve three wins with this progressive on-pacer. With a current rating of 80, Full Credit can still race in Class 3, but I expect him to continue his rise and win in Class 2.
Michael Cox: Well, I’m going to play it even safer and go with Packing Hermod. He’s won two-from-two and copped 12 points for a three-length victory under a dialled-in Zac Purton at the Season Finale.
Francis Lui is likely to try the Four-Year-Old Series, and regardless of whether he handles a mile, more wins are in store.
David Morgan: I also can’t look past Packing Hermod. He’s already leapt from an initial rating of 52 to 74 after winning both of his starts last season and looks a potential star for Francis Lui.
But he didn’t just win those 1200m contests: on debut at Happy Valley, he scooted along the rail to lead 150m out and coasted home two and a half lengths clear with Zac Purton checking the big screen for non-existent dangers; next up at Sha Tin, he travelled strongly to press the leader turning for home and quickened to win by an impressive three lengths with his ears pricked. It looked like there was a lot of upside to work with.
Andrew Le Jeune: With two prolific winners getting all the airtime, I’ll go with one yet to get off the mark in Hong Kong. Producing good form when trained by Joseph O’Brien and G3-placed when called ‘Mythology,’ Prestige Always looks well-placed to make big progress this season for Pierre Ng.
He had just three starts at the backend of the last campaign, his best result being a third-place finish at double-figure odds in the title-deciding very last race of the season. Somewhat cruelly, for more than a few strides, he reignited the Ng stable’s premiership dream: despite racing three-wide, he loomed strongly at the top of the straight to look a realistic chance of winning the race!
Already in Class 3 but only a three-year-old, he can improve further beyond his current rating (69) at 1400m and beyond.
Luke Middlebrook: I’ll stick to the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s definition for the Most Improved Horse award, and the list of winners paints a glaring picture: John Size dominates.
So for me, it’s The Winnabe—one of Size’s most progressive horses to emerge last season—who gets the nod.
Although he tasted defeat in his third race when stepping up in class and distance to 1400m after posting back-to-back wins over 1200m in Class 4, he lost no admirers by finishing second (a slow start proved costly!).
He will resume this season on a rating of 70 but gives the impression he will be a ‘100 horse’ and is another that you’d expect would be pointed towards the Four-Year-Old Series.
Name A Non-Group 1 Winner Who Can Break Through At The Top Level
Michael Cox: Is it too bold a prediction to suggest Mugen will win the Sprinters Stakes? Back at Sha Tin, Mugen might find things a little tougher than at Nakayama. Galaxy Patch is the obvious choice – he looks the number one miler in waiting – but Chancheng Glory looms as a long-term rival, and as Golden Sixty gallops into retirement, the mile races could produce surprises. He’s tactically versatile and still has some upside despite a long campaign last term.
Steven Ho: Last year’s ‘Champion Griffin’ Ka Ying Rising has already climbed from a 52 to a 111 rating, but can he add Group 1 glory to the G3 Sha Tin Vase he collected towards the end of the last campaign?
Trainer David Hayes has indicated that his progressive sprinter’s next major target is The Hong Kong Sprint in December, so he will likely get his opportunity.
Andrew Le Jeune: Far from a dark horse, having won the first two legs of last season’s Four-Year-Old Series, Helios Express came home midfield in the Derby itself, possibly not seeing out the 2000m trip.
John Size’s charge is still relatively lightly raced, winning six of his nine starts in Hong Kong. Size’s previous Classic Mile winners Sun Jewellery, Nothingilikemore and Excellent Proposal didn’t progress their following season, but Helios Express doesn’t look harshly treated on what he’s achieved so far and, back at 1600m, deserves his chance at a higher level.
David Morgan: Galaxy Patch will be knocking on the Group 1 door this season, and you’d have to think he has it in him to nick one. He showed great talent and versatility last term in a 12-race campaign that brought six wins from 1200m to 1800m, including a pair of late-season Group 3 handicaps and a second place in the Hong Kong Derby over 2000m. All of that took his domestic rating up to 119, making him the joint eighth-highest rated horse in Hong Kong and a likely candidate for Group 1 glory.
Luke Middlebrook: Yep, Galaxy Patch is itching to break through for a Group 1 win this season. He twice tested his mettle in Group 1s last season, finishing a one-length second to California Spangle in the Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup (1400m) and a closing fifth to Beauty Eternal in the Champions Mile.
Trainer Pierre Ng is now faced with the enviable problem of determining the best distance for Galaxy Patch, whose first season of racing in Hong Kong saw him compete over distances ranging from 1000m to 2000m. However, establishing himself as Hong Kong’s top miler does appear well within reach.
Your ‘Way-Too-Early’ Hong Kong Derby Prediction?
Luke Middlebrook: Tony Cruz’s Irish import Stunning Peach is the early Hong Kong Derby favourite, and rightly so. His three-start Hong Kong career, following a promising record of two wins and three seconds for trainer Joseph O’Brien, has been full of potential. Previously named Islandsinthestream, he placed second in the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud (2000m) in France, as well as in the G1 Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (1400m) and G2 Futurity Stakes (1400m) in Ireland.
Given a local rating of 80, Stunning Peach has been forced to carry topweight in all three runs at the top of Class 3. He encountered a yielding Sha Tin surface over 1600m on debut and clearly needed the run, finishing eighth. However, he improved second-up, placing second, before winning authoritatively by half a length when stepping up to 1800m in his third start.
Champion jockey Zac Purton, who has piloted Stunning Peach in each outing, seems to rate him highly, too, noting that the stayer will become a more polished product as time goes by.
Steven Ho: City Of Troy’s success in another high-profile Derby has kept Justify firmly on the map of world racing. Can his son Romantic Thor repeat the success of Romantic Warrior in the Hong Kong Derby? Owner Mr. and Mrs. Lau will have great expectations of the former Aidan O’Brien prospect, last seen winning the Listed Dee Stakes (2000m) as ‘Capulet’ in impressive fashion at Chester with Ryan Moore doing the steering. You have to think this horse was picked up from Coolmore with the one race in mind!
David Morgan: It really is too early to be going there, but as the question has been asked, the answer is another winner in Britain, Mickley. The Siu family has never won the Hong Kong Derby despite hefty investment over the years, so a win would not be out of turn.
This horse showed tremendous potential in Britain and completed a hat-trick in early summer when winning the Britannia at Royal Ascot, traditionally a solid source of Hong Kong Derby wannabes. He has never gone beyond a mile, but the Derby is rarely a stiff test over 2000 metres, and the feeling among those involved with the horse previously is that he’s relaxed enough to perhaps get the distance.
Michael Cox: Connections of Mickley can talk down the import’s Hong Kong Derby hopes all they want, but history suggests a quality miler can trump the middle-distance specialists—just ask the horse’s new trainer, John Size. In 2015, Size did it with Luger, and in 2023, he went within a head after Beauty Eternal made a Luger-like charge up the ratings to qualify.
Size won’t have to work as hard to get Mickley into the race; an expected 80-plus rating courtesy of the Britannia Stakes probably has him there already. The Siu family deserves a shot at Derby glory, and Size can deliver it.
Andrew Le Jeune: I’ll consider this a win if Cap Ferrat actually makes it to the Derby start in late March, but the ex-Chris Waller-trained four-year-old has clearly been bought for a Derby tilt.
Although being a maiden after 13 starts doesn’t fill you with confidence, Cap Ferrat was runner-up behind Tom Kitten in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) as a spring three-year-old and also third in the G1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) in the Australian autumn, so there are no issues with the Derby trip, and he clearly handles his racing.
Being placed under the care of last season’s champion trainer is no disadvantage, and Lui can plot a measured path to the Derby, with the son of Snitzel arriving on a rating of 80.
Which Hong Kong Horse Would You Like To See Compete Overseas This Season? In Which Race?
David Morgan: Romantic Warrior has already proven himself a rare champion with his Group 1 wins in Hong Kong, Japan, and Australia, so I’d like to see him travel westward now. He’ll turn seven in the new year, meaning he’s heading into the tail end of his career, so the time would be ideal to fly to Dubai in March. Given his impressive record at both a mile and a mile and a quarter, surely the perfect race for him would be the Dubai Turf over 1800 metres.
If he can beat all comers from east and west in that arena, then why not press on to a summer in Europe? Or is that being too greedy?
Andrew Le Jeune: Not greedy at all, and I think the obvious ‘new’ target for such a decorated globetrotter is Royal Ascot’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes.
York’s International Stakes would also rank highly but comes at a tricky time of year for Hong Kong horses. No one would blame connections for staying at home after last year’s amazing campaign, but with Danny Shum already tasting success at the Royal Meeting with Little Bridge (King’s Stand Stakes, 2012), I’m sure it wouldn’t be a hard sell to enthusiastic and sporting owner Peter Lau.
Romantic Warrior has already achieved so much and has nothing more to prove, but when do you get another opportunity with a horse like him?
Michael Cox: California Spangle, The Everest, please. The timing of Australia’s AU$20 million (USD$13.6m) slot race would admittedly be disruptive to a shot at December’s international meeting, but it’s not a crazy schedule.
Everest slot holders: trainer Tony Cruz isn’t hard to find; he is the guy at Sha Tin with the perpetually exceptional hair. Make the call.
Luke Middlebrook: Looking beyond the usual suspects, Hong Kong’s staying ranks are looking slim, and there is hope that last season’s Derby winner, Massive Sovereign, can return to fill the void in his five-year-old campaign. Given the schedule, the fan-voted G1 Takarazuka Kinen (2200m) at Hanshin Racecourse in late June could be one for Massive Sovereign to target. However, he’ll need to assert himself well on home soil first for it to even be a consideration.
Steven Ho: Both Galaxy Patch and his trainer, Pierre Ng, had exceptional seasons last campaign, and the horse’s stunning turn of foot makes him the perfect fit for the long homestretch at Tokyo Racecourse. Back-to-back Yasuda Kinens for Hong Kong, anyone? Pierre is not afraid to travel his horses, either.
What Headline Would You Most Like To See This Season?
Luke Middlebrook: “Sha Tin Roars As Golden Sixty Clinches Thrilling Hong Kong Mile”—who wouldn’t want to see the champion have one last crack on a firm deck!?
David Morgan: “Lucky Sweynesse Bounces Back In Hong Kong Sprint Fairytale”—after a mixed campaign last term that ended in injury, it would be fantastic to see Manfred Man’s horse bounce back on the big stage.
Michael Cox: “Club Relaxes Rules To Allow Older G1-Quality Horses To Be Imported”—who says ‘no’ to proven, class horses five and older being allowed to be imported to Hong Kong, and why?
Steven Ho: “Maiden Races Return To Sha Tin And Happy Valley”—these would be great contests… let’s help some of those struggling horses get off the mark!
Andrew Le Jeune: “Happy Valley Group Racing Extended!”—Del Mar, Moonee Valley, and Chester in the UK are all tight-turning circuits with a short run-in but are well-respected international venues staging major races each year… Happy Valley too offers something different from a racing perspective on and off the track, and whether it’s a day or usual night-time meeting would only elevate the experience more.
