2024 Hopeful Stakes: Group 1 Review
Venue: Nakayama Racecourse
Distance: 2000m
Value: ¥152,200,000 (US$964,060)
Croix du Nord has emerged as a potential Japanese star of the future after landing the JRA’s final Group 1 of the season, the Hopeful Stakes (2000m) for two-year-olds at Nakayama, under an emotional Yuichi Kitamura.
Elevated to Group 1 status in 2017, the Hopeful Stakes – as its name suggests – has been a race for emerging talents with winners including Saturnalia, Contrail and Regaleira. In its previous iterations, it had produced horses like Cosmo Bulk, Vermillion, Logi Universe, Victoire Pisa and Epiphaneia.
Although the Takashi Saito-trained Croix du Nord has a long way to go to match some of those names, he has done everything right at two and will get his chance to chase the Japanese Triple Crown.
THE RACE
While the Sunday Racing-owned winner will be the big story heading into 2025, this race is as much about 300-1 hope Faust Rasen as any other horse.
Why? Because jockey Makoto Sugihara, having his ninth Group 1 ride, showed a hint of initiative and was rewarded handsomely with third aboard the 17th favourite.
Japanese Group 1 races this year have been mostly plagued by a lack of pace.
It looked likely to happen again once Kazuo Yokoyama, aboard leader Jun Asahi Sora, dropped the anchor out of the straight and slowed the field to a dawdling 49.7 seconds between the 1600m and the 800m.
Enter Sugihara and Faust Rasen.
Settling back second last, the son of Mozu Ascot was placed awkwardly when the field packed up approaching the 1000 metres. Instead of allowing himself to be a victim of the speed, Sugihara decided to send Faust Rasen around the field, quickly assuming a spot outside Jun Asahi Sora.
That addition of speed gave Croix du Nord the perfect trail into the race from seventh, ensuring the favourite had every possible chance while cruelling the prospects of many beyond midfield.
What was impressive though was that Faust Rasen still had the lead entering the final furlong and he stuck on solidly for third, just over three lengths from Croix du Nord and a length and a quarter behind runner-up Giovanni.
Hopefully, Sugihara’s ride inspires some of his rivals once top-flight racing returns on turf in 2025.
THE WINNER
If pre-post betting existed in Japan, Croix du Nord would be the early favourite for all three legs of the Japanese Triple Crown: the G1 Satsuki Sho (2000m) in April, the G1 Tokyo Yushun (2400m) in May and the G1 Kikuka Sho (3000m) in October.
A son of British Group 2 winner Rising Cross, he is a half-brother to G1 Yushun Himba fourth Earthrise. However, he looks to be his generation’s breakout star and an exciting prospect for 2025.
Notably, he has followed the same campaign as Contrail, winning the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes (1800m) last month before adding the Hopeful Stakes. Should he follow the same path at three, he will next be seen in the Satsuki Sho.
THE WINNING JOCKEY
A long four-year drought came to an end for Kitamura as he scored his first Group 1 win since Chrono Genesis took the 2020 Arima Kinen.
In May 2021, he suffered a spinal fracture in a dirt race at Hanshin. An arduous rehabilitation period saw him spend more than 400 days out of the saddle and he was forced to watch on as Chrono Genesis won the G1 Takarazuka Kinen and contested the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Arima Kinen to end her career.
When he returned, he struggled for opportunities and it took until March this year before he won a graded stakes race again. However, it was his return to the Group 1 summit – for Chrono Genesis’ trainer Saito and the same Sunday Racing owners – that reduced him to tears post-race.
He now has one of the most prized mounts in Japanese racing heading into the new year.
THE WINNING TRAINER
Saito landed his eighth Group 1 victory and his first since Geraldina won the Queen Elizabeth II Cup two years ago.
Most of his successes came with Chrono Genesis, but he also won this race in 2021 with Killer Ability. While Killer Ability failed to live up to expectations at three, he did run a good second in Saudi Arabia earlier this year and it would not surprise to see Croix du Nord abroad one day.
THE QUOTE
Yuichi Kitamura (Croix du Nord, 1st): “The horse was truly strong, and I had full confidence in him. When I saw the draw, I knew I absolutely couldn’t afford to mess up the start, so I’m really glad I was able to get it right. The race didn’t go exactly as I had hoped during the early stages, but I trusted the horse and stuck to my race plan, which I believe allowed us to perform strongly.
“I was able to win another Group 1. I truly feel that it’s thanks to all of your support and encouragement that I have been able to reach this stage again. I would like to take this opportunity to express my gratitude to everyone. Thank you very much. Next year, I aim to shine in even big races, and I hope we can continue this step together. I will keep putting in the effort and working hard with everything I have got. Thank you for your continued support.”
THE FUTURE
Croix du Nord will face his biggest test in the G1 Satsuki Sho in April. It is at the same course and distance as the Hopeful Stakes and he shapes as the likely favourite ∎
