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A Kempton all-weather maiden in the depths of winter has proven one of the best pathways for Charlie Appleby trainees in recent years and Opera Ballo looks no exception after a sensational debut at the West London racetrack.

Opera Ballo entered with high expectations on the back of positive comments from Appleby and anticipation from Newmarket track watchers. 

From the first crop of Godolphin’s world champion Ghaiyyath, Opera Ballo was purchased for €600,000 from the Arqana August Yearling Sale in 2023 – the highest-priced yearling by his sire at that sale and the second-highest of any yearling by Ghaiyyath to date.

Such was the weight of expectations from the betting public, Opera Ballo was sent off as the 4-9 favourite. And yet, somehow, he managed to surpass even those lofty forecasts, racing right away under Billy Loughnane to win by a widening eight and a half lengths. 

The honour roll for this maiden has been dominated by Appleby and the Godolphin blue in the last five years. In fact, there had been no other winning trainer or owner since 2020, although that record was broken when Andrew Balding landed the second division of the maiden this year with Quai De Bethune; Appleby and Godolphin were not represented in the second division.

Last year, the race was also split in two. Notable Speech made his debut in the second division and stormed to a length and a quarter success in an impressive display that was better than the raw margin suggested, yet it would have been a bold pundit who could possibly have predicted he would be a 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner by the start of August.

(For the record, the first division was won by Godolphin’s Silent Age, who won two of his four starts before he was ruled out for the season.)

The year before, an imperious performance by the late Measured Time saw the half-brother to Rebel’s Romance land the maiden at his first start. On raw figures, he didn’t rate as highly as Notable Speech but he was more than a second faster and it was clear that he was bound for stakes company. 

He would win two Group 1 races, the Jebel Hatta and the Manhattan Stakes, on two continents before his tragic demise last month.

Also among the Godolphin winners of this maiden was Highland Avenue, a future Group 3 winner who was placed behind Group 1 winners like Mostahdaf, Dubai Honour, Adayar and Anmaat during his career. 

His effort at Kempton in 2021 actually rated higher than both Measured Time and Notable Speech, but he had the benefit of experience under his belt having been defeated on debut as a 1-4 favourite.  

So where does Opera Ballo rate? On raw figures, he surpasses every past winner apart from Highland Avenue. Given the time was comparatively slow, he recorded a lower Timeform rating than Measured Time, although significantly higher than Notable Speech.

At times though, it’s worth trusting the eye rather than ratings. And to the eye, this was the win of a horse who is destined for far better races – potentially for the very top.

Appleby is plotting a similar path to the 2000 Guineas with Opera Ballo as he took with Notable Speech last year. That involved two further Kempton efforts at a mile, both in conditions races, before his first Group 1 test.

Given his similar pedigree cross to Notable Speech, he might be restricted to a mile at three. However, Ghaiyyath produced his best between a mile and a quarter and a mile and a half and it would be exciting to see him up in trip.

Future Outlook: Whether he can match Notable Speech as a 2000 Guineas winner remains to be seen, but he looks a Group 1 performer of the future ∎

Andrew Hawkins is the Idol Horse Globetrotter. Andrew’s deep passion for international racing has taken him to all corners of the world, including Hong Kong, where he was based for five years. He has worked with media outlets including South China Morning Post, Racing Post, ANZ Bloodstock News, Sky Racing Australia and World Horse Racing, as well as for organisations including the Hong Kong Jockey Club and Victoria Racing Club.

View all articles by Andrew Hawkins.

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