The Everest: Idol Horse Power Rankings (September 16)
Our experts rank the contenders for the A$20m Everest after a weekend that saw Oliveanotherday’s stocks dip following his straight-track failure at Flemington.
The Everest: Idol Horse Power Rankings (September 16)
Our experts rank the contenders for the A$20m Everest after a weekend that saw Oliveanotherday’s stocks dip following his straight-track failure at Flemington.
16 September, 2026Two races on Saturday decide how our rankings shifts next week: the G2 Shorts (1100m) at Randwick, where Joliestar, Ninja and Headwall all step out, and the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke (1400m) at Caulfield, where Chris Waller has Lady Shenandoah and Angel Capital entered.
Here’s how our experts rate the challengers chasing the champ.
1. Ka Ying Rising –
Age/Sex: 6YO Gelding
Trainer: David Hayes
Race Record: 24:22-2-0
Biggest Win: G1 The Everest (2025)
Unanimous again, and he won’t be seen in a race before October 17. The international handicappers put a number on the Chief Executive’s Cup during the week: 135, up from 131, the highest rating ever given to a sprinter in the LONGINES World’s Best Racehorse Rankings and the top mark of any horse in the world this year. He is in quarantine and bound for Canterbury, where David Hayes says he has no fears at all – the horse thrives there and did well in quarantine last time. Everything below this line is an argument about who could run second.
2. Tempted –
Age/Sex: 4YO Mare
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Race Record: 13:8-2-2
Biggest Win: G1 Surround Stakes (2026)
The G2 Premiere Stakes (1200m) on October 3 is likely to be her only run between the G2 Concorde and The Everest, which means our clear Australian No. 1 goes into the race off two starts. Last year’s runner-up has two things many of the horses below her don’t have: a slot and a settled plan.
3. Guest House –
Age/Sex: 3YO Colt
Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr
Race Record: 5:3-1-1
Biggest Win: G1 Golden Slipper (2026)
Bypassed the Run To The Rose and goes straight to the G1 Golden Rose (1400m) at Rosehill on September 26, where bookmakers have him early favourite. The Golden Rose looms as a tougher test now: on Saturday, Warwoven – only fifth to Guest House in the San Domenico from the outside gate – won the Run To The Rose from a better draw. The Golden Rose is also the Everest audition. The slot he’s chasing belongs to part-owner Coolmore, and Tom Magnier’s line after the San Domenico was that he had turned up thinking 1100m would be too short and the colt blew that out of the water.
4. Joliestar –
Age/Sex: 6YO Mare
Trainer: Chris Waller
Race Record: 22:10-4-4
Biggest Win: G1 TJ Smith Stakes (2026)
Joliestar resumes in Saturday’s G2 Shorts, her first run since finishing third in the Jubilee at Royal Ascot in June, and won this same race a year ago on the way to Randwick. She is the only horse in the Shorts field who isn’t auditioning: Waller’s own slot is hers, and his position on the horse casting a shadow over the race hasn’t changed – you can’t be afraid of one horse. Four weeks from Saturday to The Everest, exactly as last year.
5. Ninja –
Age/Sex: 4YO Gelding
Trainer: Michael Freedman
Race Record: 9:5-1-2
Biggest Win: G2 Hobartville Stakes (2026)
Also in the Shorts, and his place locked in via John Camilleri’s Fairway Thoroughbreds slot. He trialled at Rosehill ahead of it, and Saturday is his first run since the G2 Missile Stakes on August 8 – a six-week gap.
6. Beiwacht ↑1
Age/Sex: 4YO Horse
Trainer: Chris Waller
Race Record: 14:4-3-1
Biggest Win: G1 Memsie Stakes (2026)
Up one place without racing. He hasn’t raced since the Memsie and rises only because Oliveanotherday failed. Waller has called 1400m his sweet spot. It would also confirm the concern our panel has carried from the outset: the races that suit him best are not 1200m at Randwick, and Godolphin had stud retirement on the table as recently as April. A start in the Golden Eagle rather than The Everest seems more likely.
7. My Gladiola ↑1
Age/Sex: 4YO Mare
Trainer: John McArdle
Race Record: 13:3-5-1
Biggest Win: G1 Moir Stakes (2026)
Ranked high but looking less likely now. John McArdle has confirmed she gets one or two more runs this spring and then a break, with the Manikato, a Sydney trip for the Premiere or the Sydney Stakes, and Flemington’s Champions Sprint listed as the options. The Everest is not among them. The endgame he has named is the United Kingdom – three or four runs there next year and a crack at doing what Asfoora did, with the Lightning and the Galaxy as the local lead-ups.
Our panel has her seventh on merit but her trainer is planning a Royal Ascot campaign and hasn’t named the world’s richest turf race in his plans, so she is being ranked on ability rather than intention.
8. Angel Capital ↑1
Age/Sex: 5YO Horse
Trainer: Chris Waller
Race Record: 17:5-2-2
Biggest Win: G2 Autumn Stakes (2025)
Saturday is the day the argument gets settled one way or the other. Waller has him in the Sir Rupert Clarke, the race he was a luckless fourth in last year, with the Manikato the alternative if the draw goes against him. Yulong has kept the door open – the horse ran well in an Everest last year, they hold a slot, and he is still in that conversation – which makes this the most direct slot audition of the weekend. The uncomfortable statistic: he and stablemate Lady Shenandoah head the market for a Group 1 handicap having gone a combined 933 days without winning a race.
9. Headwall ↑1
Age/Sex: 7YO Gelding
Trainer: Matthew Smith
Race Record: 19:7-6-4
Biggest Win: G2 Concorde Stakes (2025)
Matthew Smith rolls out two stable stars at Randwick – Headwall in the Shorts and Idle Flyer out to her favourite course and distance in the G2 7 Stakes (1600m) – and says he’ll know far more about his spring by the end of the day.
The slot interest is real. “We have had a couple of inquiries from Everest slot-holders for Headwall,” Smith said. “There’s nothing locked in yet but hopefully he runs well in The Shorts and that gets him a guernsey.”
Zac Lloyd retains the ride. The fallbacks, if nobody calls, are the Premiere and a Sydney Stakes are the consolation – the same two doors he was left with last spring before injury shut them both.
10. Oliveanotherday ↓4
Age/Sex: 4YO Gelding
Trainer: Tom Dabernig
Race Record: 9:6-1-0
Biggest Win: G3 The Heath (2026)
The only major move on the board. Sent out the 1.60 favourite for the G2 Bobbie Lewis at Flemington, he never looked comfortable on his first time down the straight and finished fifth, just over a length behind Losesomewinmore, with Harry Coffey reporting he simply didn’t let down in his usual fashion. Bubble, burst.
11. Jimmysstar –
Age/Sex: 7YO Gelding
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Race Record: 29:11-5-4
Biggest Win: G2 Russell Balding Stakes (2025)
Still idle since the Memsie ninth, and still governed by the test his part-owner set before that run: come back like he was in the autumn and the Everest talk stops, come back like the Jimmy everyone knows and it’s a different discussion. Three weeks on and the discussion hasn’t happened because the horse hasn’t run. The alternative target is the A$5m G1 King Charles III Stakes – same day, same track, no slot required.
12. Lady Shenandoah –
Age/Sex: 5YO Mare
Trainer: Chris Waller
Race Record: 16:5-4-3
Biggest Win: G1 Coolmore Classic (2025)
Holds her place, because she never got to run. The Sheraco was the race we said would define her spring; Waller withdrew her on Saturday morning with Caulfield in mind and has entered her for the Sir Rupert Clarke instead, where she is the early favourite. Fourth first-up in the Winx Stakes.
