Sunday marked the halfway point of the season and Brett Crawford has already done enough to tell you he can train. Fourteen winners so far is a solid return and if he keeps rolling at the same rate he’ll finish with an above-average number for a debut season. The question isn’t whether he can win races now – it’s whether he can set himself up to keep winning them next year. History tells us that’s where a lot of promising starts come unstuck.
All of Crawford’s have come with ‘transfer’ horses – the ones that land in a new stable and suddenly look like they’ve woken up. Horses are like people. New job, new environment, new relationship – you perk up. You’re enthusiastic. Why would a horse be any different?
But don’t write Crawford’s success off as nothing more than a change-of-scenery sugar hit. He’s clearly doing plenty right.
What I like is that he doesn’t train like he’s following a recipe book. John Size has been so successful here that other trainers look at his method – especially the heavy use of barrier trials – and think they have to copy it. Crawford hasn’t fallen into that trap. If he thinks a horse is right, he’ll go 30, 40, even 60 days without a trial and just run it. In Hong Kong that’s unusual, but it tells you he knows his horses and he’s prepared to trust what he’s seeing.
And the Hong Kong set-up rewards that. Crawford left a huge operation in South Africa – around 180 horses – and arrived here saying the luxury of starting with about 25 horses was the attention-to-detail he could give each one. When you live on course, you can watch them every day and pick up the little changes.
So yes, I’m impressed. He can improve a horse. He’s brought good energy to the scene.
Now for the part nobody wants to talk about when the wins are flowing: roster management.
There’s a trap I see with a lot of new trainers. They start with 20-odd horses, they hit the ground running, and suddenly horses get offered to them. Owners want to move to the hot stable. The trainer doesn’t want to say no. They take them.
The problem is: if you take too many Class 5 horses you can’t find races for them all.
There aren’t enough low-class races on the program to keep a bottom-heavy stable moving. Once you fill up with too many Class 5 horses, you block your own future. When the better transfers arrive later – the ones you really want – you can’t take them because the barn is jammed with horses that are hard to place.
Crawford is already up to 67 horses out of a maximum 70. Sixteen are unraced, which is a good sign. But the balance worries me. He’s got 11 horses rated 40 or below – a big chunk of Class 5 stock to find races for – and another 12 rated around 41–45 that can easily drop and add even more pressure. Having 23 horses rated 45 or less isn’t the right balance.
Look at recent history: of the last 11 trainers to debut in Hong Kong, eight failed to improve their win tally from season one to season two. Year one success doesn’t guarantee year two growth.
One trainer who got this part right was Mark Newnham. He also had early success with transfers, but he didn’t fill the stable up on the first sugar hit. He kept space and protected the balance. He won 31 races in his first season, improved to 44 in his second, and set himself up to keep building rather than stalling. He now leads the championship in year three.
That’s the next challenge for Crawford. He can train – we’ve seen it. Now he has to manage the list with the same discipline, so the good start doesn’t turn into a second-season squeeze.
Ethan Brown Is A Serious Late-Season Get
It’s great to see Ethan Brown coming to Hong Kong for the back end of the season. He’s only 26, he’s already past 600 career wins and he’s got 10 Group 1s on the board – and that’s after coming back from a nasty fall at Flemington in 2023.
I’ll be honest: I don’t sit there watching every midweek race in Australia. I watch the big ones – Group races, Saturdays when it matters. And over the last 12 to 18 months, three jockeys have stood out in those races: James McDonald, Mark Zahra and Ethan Brown.
Put them in any order you want, but I’ll say this – and I don’t say it often – there’s no way James or Zahra have been better than Ethan Brown in the big races this past year. Right now, he’s that good.
I’ve never met him. Never spoken to him. This is purely what I see from afar. Tactically, he looks flawless when the pressure is on. He’s thinking faster than the others, making decisions early and riding like a jockey who isn’t scared to lose.
That’s why his skillset should suit Hong Kong. Our racing is tight and tactical. It’s timing, gaps, rhythm – being brave without being reckless. If Brown gets the right chances, he won’t just ‘make up the numbers’ – he’ll win a lot of races, which isn’t easy to do coming in as a new jockey at the end of the season.
The Derby Is Getting Deeper – And Flow Water Flow Has To Be Considered
The Derby picture gets more interesting every week, and that’s what you want. Four weeks ago it looked a little thin. Now we’re starting to get numbers.
Last week I raised questions about Little Paradise after his brilliant Classic Mile win – specifically whether he could handle different race circumstances when things don’t set up perfectly for him. The Classic Cup over 1800 metres should answer some of those questions.
Meanwhile, Numbers delivered exactly what we expected in the G3 Centenary Vase, winning strongly over the Classic Cup course and distance. He’s right in the mix and building his Derby case with every run.
But here’s what I’m hoping the Club does when the time comes: pick the 14 most in-form horses, and don’t hide behind ratings.
The Classic Mile and Classic Cup are run on ratings – fair enough. But the Derby should be about who can win the race, not who arrived with the highest overseas mark. If a higher-rated horse is out of form and looks like he won’t be competitive – why are we protecting him?
That’s why I keep coming back to Flow Water Flow.
I love this horse. I love the way he relaxes and then attacks the line. He doesn’t quicken like a sharp miler – he just keeps grinding. I think he will get the 2000m of the Derby, easy.
What he did on Sunday was a strong win: a Class 3 over 1800 metres for the first time. He’s come a long way in a very short time. He debuted in late November over 1200 and he’s already up winning at 1800. That profile matters in a Derby season.
John Size has hinted the horse might not have the rating to get into the field. Maybe that’s right, but if this horse keeps improving and winning before the Derby field is selected, the Club has to find a way to include him.
The Derby field should be the best 14 chances – and right now, Flow Water Flow is definitely one of the top 14 chances for the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby. ∎
