2026 Hong Kong Derby: Power Rankings, February 4
Idol Horse’s Hong Kong racing experts provide their top 14 contenders for the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby.
As expected, the Hong Kong Classic Mile delivered the biggest rankings shake-up yet – Little Paradise stormed home, vaulted to the top and suddenly looks like the horse to beat on March 22.
Will he win the BMW Hong Kong Derby? And what about the ones behind him in the Classic Mile – Infinite Resolve flashing late, Sagacious Life leaving punters split, and Invincible Ibis running on from last without ever truly threatening? Our panel ranks the contenders by most likely Derby winner, not just best miler.
The next pivot point is Sunday: Numbers headlines the Group 3 Centenary Vase as the key runner ahead of the Hong Kong Classic Cup (1800m) on March 1, while the dark horses try to force their way into the 14-horse Derby field through handicaps – one rating boost at a time.
1. Little Paradise ↑
Previous Ranking: 3
Trainer: Jimmy Ting
Rating: 103
HK Record: 9: 6-1-1
New top pick after a slashing Classic Mile win that has some predicting Jimmy Ting’s stable star is the new superstar of Hong Kong racing. Plenty to prove just yet beyond a mile but based on pure class, Little Paradise is top pick.
2. Numbers ↑
Previous Ranking: 4
Trainer: Frankie Lor
Rating: 90
HK Record: 2: 1-0-1
Frankie Lor’s stayer goes to number two without leaving his stable after two of the top three failed to shine in the first leg of the Classic Series. Numbers gets a chance to prove he belongs near the top of the rankings when he runs with bottom weight in the G3 Centenary Vase at Sha Tin.
3. Sagacious Life ↓
Previous Ranking: 2
Trainer: Pierre Ng
Rating: 97
HK Record: 4: 2-0-0
Zac Purton was disappointed in Sagacious Life’s Classic Mile effort but perhaps he was still dealing with the disappointment of getting off the winner. Idol Horse columnist Shane Dye was forgiving of the Brazilian import’s fourth and he should appreciate the Derby distance more than most. The worry is that he is too one-paced or that perhaps those roarer issues are beginning to surface.
4. Invincible Ibis ↓
Previous Ranking: 1
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 91
HK Record: 8: 4-2-1
Started clear favorite in the Classic Mile and ran on from last for sixth. Opinions are divided over the run – Mark Newnham was forgiving though and he can still win the Derby. Needs to show he is more than just a come-from-last swooper and the Classic Cup is a perfect chance to display some tactical speed.
5. Beauty Bolt ↑
Previous Ranking: 8
Trainer: Tony Cruz
Rating: 88
HK Record: 8: 2-3-2
Typical of a Tony Cruz-trained prospect on a big race path – tough, fit and racing on pace, Beauty Bolt just won’t give in. When a horse keeps doing what Beauty Bolt is doing it can be a sign of real quality. Virtually guaranteed a Derby start now.
6. Patch Of Cosmo ↓
Previous Ranking: 5
Trainer: Manfred Man
Rating: 84
HK Record: 13: 5-0-0
Endured a torrid trip in the Classic Mile but stuck on well to the line. Others were more impressive but Patch Of Cosmo is still in the reckoning. Second-up after a long break can often result in a flat run – third-up over 1800m after a month will be the true test of his Derby credentials.
7. Top Dragon
Previous Ranking: 7
Trainer: Chris So
Rating: 84
HK Record: 12: 3-3-2
Interference with just over 100m to go stopped his momentum in the Classic Mile – he may have run a place otherwise. Went up three points for his fifth-placing to a rating of 84 – that should ensure a place in the Derby field if he maintains form.
8. Infinite Resolve ↑
Previous Ranking: 11
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 89
HK Record: 9: 1-4-2
Already a distance query heading into the Classic Mile and that remains as the series steps up in trip, despite a strong closing section to finish second. Settled well but it was behind a genuine tempo – can he drop his head in a slow run 1800m or the often muddling pace of a Derby? A rating of 89 ensures he will be there on the day.
9. Seraph Gabriel
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: David Eustace
Rating: 79
HK Record: 2: 0-1-0
Before Sunday the best David Eustace could say about the English import was that he was “a nice looking horse”. That he is, but Sunday showed the colt could be a factor when he was second to Lucky Sam Gor over a mile. Still, he had every chance to win but didn’t. The challenge now for Eustace is to qualify for the Derby with a horse rated 79. He may not qualify for the Classic Cup and needs to win between now and March 22 to earn a ticket.
10. Lucky Sam Gor (NEW)
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 76
HK Record: 14: 4-1-2
The syndicate that owns Lucky Sam Gor wants to earn a place in the 14-horse Derby field and trainer Mark Newnham is happy to help them achieve their dream with an honest type that has risen from a rating of 45 to 76. Will need at least one more win to get there but has not run a bad race this season despite a string of wide draws.
11. Dazzling Fit ↓
Previous Ranking: 6
Trainer: David Eustace
Rating: 75
HK Record: 9: 3-1-1
Trainer David Eustace gambled on Dazzling Fit making the Classic Mile field off a rating of 75 and lost – leaving the gritty miler to contest a Class 3 handicap a week earlier. As far as Derby trials go, his sixth with a big weight there was fair, but making the field becomes the biggest issue with a horse that might be more of a miler anyway. Runs in an 1800m Class 3 on Sunday at Sha Tin, a race that looms as a last chance qualifier for some lower ranked aspirants looking for a Classic Cup spot.
12. Aerodynamics ↑
Previous Ranking: 14
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 74
HK Record: 2: 0-1-0
Another horse entered for Sunday’s 1800m Class 3. Aerodynamics’ second to Patch Of Cosmo first-up was good but he now goes from 1200m to 1600m to 1800m third-up – for a horse that never saw more than 1475m in South Africa, it’s a decent test of whether or not a Derby is worth pursuing.
13. Super Express (NEW)
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: John Size
Rating: 74
HK Record: 6: 2-4-0
John Size was brutally honest when quizzed on the Derby chances of Super Express in a 1400m Class 3 on Classic Mile day. “He hasn’t got that sort of quality at the moment,” he said. “That was a very good group of horses in the Classic Mile today.” That won’t stop Size giving Super Express a chance to learn his racecraft more but a rating of 74, a famously patient trainer and the fact he has yet to race over more than 1400m make him an unlikely Derby starter, let alone winner.
14. Windlord ↓
Previous Ranking: 10
Trainer: Cody Mo
Rating: 80
HK Record: 2: 0-0-0
Forget he went around in the Classic Mile – was three and four wide the trip in a fast run race. One factor that could be in Windlord’s favour is his proven quality beyond 1800m – one of few horses in the rankings with overseas staying form.
