Who Will Win The 2024 Melbourne Cup? Your Ultimate Comprehensive Guide

For all the talk about whether the Melbourne Cup has lost its lustre, whether it truly remains the race that stops the nation, one fact often gets overlooked – it still has people talking. Like it or loathe it, the Melbourne Cup is THE topic of conversation this week.

It may not be the race it once was and it may not have the same power over the nation in 2024. Australia is a different country.

But there is no Australian sporting event that is so intrinsically a part of our cultural and social fabric like the Melbourne Cup. It tells so much of our story as a nation, our history, our shared experiences. If it is no longer the race that stops the nation, it remains the race at the heart of the nation – just as it has since 1861, four decades before Federation.

For racing enthusiasts, the Melbourne Cup has lost its lustre in a different way. The internationalisation of the feature saw it become a classier affair but also created its own issues. Horse welfare has been to the fore and it means that a number of horses were withdrawn by vets last week.

It means that the field assembled for this year’s race looks fairly thin compared to years gone by, although it does look one of the more intriguing Cups of recent years as well.

Andrew Hawkins is considered a leading expert on the Melbourne Cup and has been producing his famous preview for almost two decades. In 2024, the preview makes its debut with Idol Horse.

Who will win? Dive into Andrew’s preview below for everything you need to know about the 24 runners in the world’s richest handicap.

Key Points

For those who need a quick primer about the race, here are the basic facts you need to know.

Run at Flemington racecourse every year, it is a handicap over 3200m. Each horse carries a different weight as has been assessed by Racing Victoria’s handicapper and the intention is to have all 24 horses finish together at the finish.

The Melbourne Cup is traditionally run on the first Tuesday of November and has been contested every year since 1861. Among the best-known winners are Archer, Carbine, Phar Lap, Peter Pan, Rain Lover, Think Big, Subzero and Makybe Diva.

Fun Facts

This year will mark 100 years since the first Irish-bred horse, Backwood, won the Melbourne Cup.

There will be a record four women riding in the race: Jamie Kah (Okita Soushi), Hollie Doyle (Sea King), Rachel King (The Map) and Winona Costin (Positivity). All will be trying to join Michelle Payne, who rode Prince Of Penzance to victory in 2015.

There are also six female trainers with horses in this year’s Cup, including the two women to have prepared Melbourne Cup winners already: Sheila Laxon (Knight’s Choice) and Gai Waterhouse (Just Fine). They are joined by Annabel Neasham (Fancy Man), Debbie Rogerson (Sharp ‘n’ Smart), Oopy MacGillivray (The Map) and Natalie Young (Mostly Cloudy).

Mark Zahra (Circle Of Fire) will aim to become the first jockey to win the Melbourne Cup in three consecutive years on three different horses, having won the last two years on Gold Trip and Without A Fight.

Speed Map

A critical factor this year is the speed map. Determining where horses are likely to be throughout the race may prove beneficial in finding the winner.

The barrier draw on Saturday evening certainly created some interest. Favourite Buckaroo has drawn wide, but he was likely to go back in the field anyway. Perhaps most interest is on those drawn low that could settle further forward, like the Japanese runner Warp Speed. Also, expect horses like Valiant King and Circle Of Fire to press forward from wide draws.

Here is a visualisation of the likely speed in the first 200 metres of this year’s Melbourne Cup:

Just Fine is the logical leader, but expect Circle Of Fire to push forward into a handy position. Valiant King may be stuck in an awkward position out wide, but it makes sense for him to be put into the race rather than settling back in no man’s land out of action.

Positivity, Land Legend and Fancy Man are others who could end up in awkward spots, while the draw looks particularly kind to the likes of Vauban, Okita Soushi, Athabascan, Sea King and Zardozi.

Preview

Hover over each runner for a brief assessment and a prediction, and click on each horse for a full profile.

Analysis

It may look a straightforward Melbourne Cup on paper, but it might be one of the better Melbourne Cups in terms of finding value in some time.

Will it go down as a great Melbourne Cup? Unless there is a big margin winner (just like Via Sistina in the Cox Plate last week) or an exciting finish (think Dunaden v Red Cadeaux in 2011 or Kiwi’s last to first burst in 1983), it is unlikely to be that memorable a Cup. However, racing has a way of producing the unexpected from nowhere.

It is one of those Cups where it has proven difficult to come to a definite conclusion. I have changed my top selection 10 times in the past week and I have shuffled my order around on countless occasions. However, at some point, you have to press pause and make a decision.

And so, after hundreds of hours of study and analysis, it comes down to this.

I’ve got it down to seven horses that I think can win: Absurde, Buckaroo, Interpretation, Kovalica, Okita Soushi, Onesmoothoperator and Vauban. Others, like Land Legend, have the ability to win but are facing an uphill battle for one reason or another.

If you had told me 12 months ago that I would even be considering OKITA SOUSHI among that bunch, I would have told you that you were mad. Minutes after he had finished 11th to Without A Fight, I was talking to his rider last year, Dylan Gibbons, and I expressed my surprise that he had performed so well.

However, his ability to put himself into a race has drastically changed his prospects. That’s been seen at each of his last two starts, finishing second in the Herbert Power before winning the Moonee Valley Cup.

He will stay all day and I am sure that he will be fighting on when challenged down the straight. Given the way he finished off last year, I am convinced that he will be a threat ridden forward. If Jamie Kah can produce half the ride she did aboard Goldrush Guru to win the Victoria Derby on Saturday, she can add the Melbourne Cup – and with a suspected broken nose, no less.

He goes on top of last year’s favourite VAUBAN, who should end up in a similarly forward spot to Okita Soushi. We simply didn’t see the best of him last year for one reason or another, but Willie Mullins has changed his preparation, he’s tweaked a few things and there’s no doubt that the best of Vauban is good enough to win. Hopefully, we get to see the real Vauban this year.

The Geelong Cup has proven a strong form reference in recent years, particularly when it has been won dominantly by internationals. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR couldn’t have done much more there and he looks to get in so well at the weights. He will need the right kind of race shape again and that’s no guarantee, but if he reproduces that effort, he’s a major contender.

I’ve copped plenty of abuse for suggesting a few weeks ago that KOVALICA could win a Melbourne Cup. I think that the horse will still be maligned even if he wins – I’m sure it will be dismissed as a weak Melbourne Cup if he manages it – but he does look the type who could just switch off and then sprint hard late. An outside draw is a plus, he has a top rider of stayers aboard in Damian Lane and he’s capable on his day.

Next best would be BUCKAROO, who is the horse they all have to beat but just ranks outside the top four, and then INTERPRETATION, who would run home at the end of a transcontinental odyssey, let alone a Melbourne Cup.

One final caveat: for those that have been reading my preview for years, they will know that my prediction for seventh has an uncanny knack of getting home: Without A Fight, Gold Trip, Verry Elleegant, Cross Counter, all in seventh.

So for those who are looking for the best system, perhaps it is this: I have ABSURDE in for seventh in the expectation he will repeat his effort from last year. You have been warned.