Racing Roundtable: Saudi Cup Talking Points
Forever Young and Romantic Warrior capped a great show in Riyadh but who had a game changing night? Which is the horse to follow? Was the J-Mac criticism fair? Idol Horse experts have their say in the latest Roundtable.
Who Was This Meeting A Gamechanger For?
Michael Cox: The iconic feature race helped the event itself transform. Forever Young versus Romantic Warrior created a viral moment the meeting needed. Money can’t buy what the Saudi Cup gained from this incredible battle. Not only did it put Saudi Arabian racing firmly on the map but also Romantic Warrior’s trainer Danny Shum believes Romantic Warrior’s performance may encourage other Hong Kong horses to compete there in the future.
As Shum told Idol Horse in the lead-up, “I just opened the first step, going to the Saudi Cup for the first time, and I’m hoping other trainers and owners will come.”
Jack Dawling: Oisin Murphy’s success on Byzantine Dream felt like a big moment for Britain’s four-time champion jockey. When he surged clear aboard the four-year-old colt in Riyadh it had been over three years since his last win on a Japanese-trained horse internationally.
Murphy has had his troubles since then, but perhaps most significantly, his Group 2 success came in the colours of Northern Farm supremo Katsumi Yoshida. The likelihood is he can now open the door for more opportunities aboard Japanese gallopers for the upcoming Dubai World Cup meeting and beyond, with a view to gaining a short-term JRA licence again in the future.
Andrew Hawkins: James McDonald, even in defeat. The reality is that, even though he won his second “World’s Best Jockey” title last year, he wouldn’t have the name recognition of some of his northern hemisphere rivals in places like the United States and Europe. He’s well and truly on the world stage now and the world should open up for him going forward.
David Morgan: Two jockeys, Ryusei Sakai and Connor Beasley. Forever Young’s rider Sakai came in for criticism after the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic defeats, but this win showed that the 29-year-old is on the right path towards becoming the international Group 1 rider his boss Yoshito Yahagi has invested so much time and trust in developing.
Beasley, 30, has not had those opportunities but he has long been seen as a jockey with top-level potential by those who have had him on their radar. As a northern-based rider in Britain he is too often off most radars, but this year Golden Vekoma has come his way and he has taken the opportunity with both hands.
His winning ride in the Saudi Derby was surely a game changer for him: with the world watching, he showed that he has the attributes to mix it with the world’s best riders. Such a win, in tandem with another good season in the UAE this winter, could and should put a brighter spotlight on his talent.
Masanobu Takahashi: I think Shin Emperor will take another leap forward following his victory in Saudi Arabia. He has always had the true top-class ability, but his incompleteness meant that he was missing the titles to match. However, his performance in the Neom Turf Cup was so strong that it felt like he had finally filled in the missing piece and that this could be a springboard to Group 1 glory.
Has The Criticism Of James McDonald’s Ride On Romantic Warrior Been Unfair?
Jack Dawling: In short, yes. Of course, McDonald would rather not have been five-wide on the turn, but he needed to keep Romantic Warrior rolling. This was not on the turf at Sha Tin where J-Mac can ask Romantic Warrior for his press-button turn of foot. This was on the deep, unforgiving dirt in Riyadh where momentum is key.
That’s not to mention the fact he broke the stakes race record time, pulled 10 and a half lengths clear of last year’s Saudi Cup runner-up in third, and came within a neck of Japan’s greatest ever dirt horse.
David Morgan: The truth is, working five-wide is a tough run and the fact that McDonald’s’s horse lost adds fuel to the view held by some critics that he got it very wrong. But, as Jack mentioned, dirt racing is about momentum, horses don’t usually sit and sprint on that surface. Look at J-Mac’s position, behind a wall of four, dirt coming back at him and his horse travelling strongly: McDonald had momentum and he used it to roll around the outside. That’s not an altogether uncommon winning move on dirt.
Given his time again, would McDonald opt to sit and follow them for 30 seconds longer? Possibly. If he had, he would have been free to move into the lane vacated by the flagging Al Musmak and then started his run at Forever Young from about the 400m mark, rather than heading him 450m out. But not knowing when that gap might open, McDonald made a move in the moment that has worked for many other jockeys in dirt track races.
We’ve all seen rides that can justifiably be labelled poor: this isn’t one of them, it wasn’t a horror show. He took an option that certainly wasn’t a bad one against probably the best dirt track runner in the world.
Michael Cox: Would J-Mac want this ride again? My guess is that he has had the final 400m on loop in his head ever since – leaving aside the time it took to win a Group 1 14 hours later in Hong Kong – he was a length clear in the world’s richest race and was beaten by a horse he just went past.
But was the criticism fair? American broadcaster Randy Moss posted on X “It’s only February, but for Worst Ride of 2025 you can go ahead and give the trophy to James McDonald for what he did to Romantic Warrior in the Saudi Cup.” If Randy thinks that is the worst ride anywhere this year, either he isn’t watching much racing or he doesn’t understand what he is watching.
Masanobu Takahashi: I was surprised by the criticism of this ride. In Japan, where dirt racing is well established, it is well-known that kickback can significantly drain a horse’s motivation. To avoid that, he went wide and took the lead early. I think the word ‘tactical’ suits this ride well. It did not work for him, but the ride does not warrant the type of criticism McDonald has received.
Who Is The Horse To Follow Into The Dubai World Cup Meeting Or Beyond?
Andrew Hawkins: It has to be Golden Vekoma who followed Forever Young as a Saudi Derby winner. He returns to his home base in Dubai and will aim to become the first non-Godolphin local winner of the UAE Derby and the first to complete the UAE 2,000 Guineas-UAE Derby double since Thunder Snow. The way he won, though, suggests that he has a big chance of taking the prize and winning his way into the Kentucky Derby for Connor Beasley and Ahmad Bin Harmash if that’s the way connections look to go.
Michael Cox: Ascoli Piceno, wherever she turns up. Tactical speed and Sha Tin’s firm surface would make one of Hong Kong’s Group 1 miles an ideal target.
Jack Dawling: It might seem like an obvious choice, but Shin Emperor looks like one to keep on side in the Sheema Classic and beyond. He dictated proceedings out in front at a reasonable pace and still found plenty to assert his authority at the line. Whether he looks to make all over 2000m or is ridden a bit more conservatively to get 2400m, he looks poised for a big season.
David Morgan: Ascoli Piceno and Golden Vekoma are great shouts but I’m with Jack on this, Shin Emperor looks like he could emerge as a real star four-year-old this year and it will be fascinating to see where Yoshito Yahagi takes him later in the year. The King George at Ascot into the Juddmonte International, or the Irish Champion Stakes again, perhaps?
Masanobu Takahashi: Shin Forever. His performance on dirt for the first time was outstanding. I believe he has a seat among the top contenders for the UAE Derby as well.
Peter Lau Has Just Generously Given You A Controlling Share In Romantic Warrior, What’s Next For The Horse?
David Morgan: It would be the Dubai Turf as planned. But after that I’d skip the Yasuda Kinen and ship him to Europe where he could enjoy a bit of relaxation in England for a few weeks. He’s already proven himself in Japan, Hong Kong, Dubai, Saudi Arabia and Australia, so it would be great to see him race in Europe and North America. I’d get him ready for the G1 Juddmonte International at Britain’s finest racecourse, York, in late August.
I’d then take him to the U.S. for the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar. Each race would present different challenges, but if he were to run to form (as this is all pie-in-the-sky fantasy, he would win, of course), the adventure would enhance his legend and see him remembered as one the sport’s all-time greats. Then back home to Hong Kong for a fourth Hong Kong Cup.
Michael Cox: Before trainer Danny Shum even had a chance to send me the monthly invoice for training fees I would sell my share immediately. Digging into my list of contacts I would attempt to start a bidding war between billionaire owners Mike Repole and John Stewart, then write about it for Idol Horse. The race I would love Romantic Warrior to contest is the G1 Takarazuka Kinen over 2200m at Hanshin in mid-June.
Andrew Hawkins: Romantic Warrior missed the chance to join the rare club of horses who had won Group 1 races in five countries … so let’s try and make it happen. I would target the Prix d’Ispahan in France, even with the chance he could strike soft ground as it can be one of Europe’s weaker Group 1 races, before taking most of the summer off. I’d take him to the Woodbine Mile in Canada if it is held in its regular September position, although there is some chatter it could be held earlier, and then give him a go at the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar.
Jack Dawling: Thank you very much, Mr Lau. First, we can crack on with the Dubai Turf to brush aside Liberty Island again and then it’s off to Royal Ascot for the Prince Of Wales. Yes, I know, the prizemoney isn’t up to scratch, but it looks like the perfect opportunity to add Europe to his illustrious CV.
Chances are Romantic Warrior would meet perfect ground conditions, possibly mediocre opposition, and he’ll thrive around the slingshot bend at Ascot where he’ll be taken into the straight under a firm hold.
Masanobu Takahashi: As a Japanese horse racing fan, I would like to send him to the Yasuda Kinen and Takarazuka Kinen. If he wins both, he could even contend for Japan’s Horse of the Year title.
The Rematch Has Been Ruled Out, But If Forever Young And Romantic Warrior Again Clashed On Dirt In The Dubai World Cup, Who Wins?
David Morgan: It would be fantastic to see them meet again in Dubai, it would be incredibly sporting of his already very sporting owner, Peter Lau. But it seems the camp has already ruled it out and I think that’s understandable: there seemed to be some consensus among horsemen in Riyadh that the deep dirt track there is more favourable to turf horses than the big track in Dubai. Meydan’s dirt track rides faster and is a tougher test for a turf horse.
Given that Romantic Warrior couldn’t beat Forever Young in Riyadh, it’s hard to believe he would reverse placings in Dubai against such a talented specialist on the surface.
Jack Dawling: Forever Young would confirm the form over Romantic Warrior. There was a slight moment of worry for Ryusei Sakai in the straight on Saturday, but now the rider knows exactly where he needs to have Romantic Warrior before driving past him. Over an extra 200m, the Japanese raider would be a heavy favourite to win again.
Michael Cox: As I wrote in a column for The Standard newspaper in Hong Kong this week: “In boxing parlance, when McDonald and Romantic Warrior surged past Forever Young at the top of the straight it was like a wild haymaker that landed right on the latter’s chin. Forever Young took Romantic Warrior’s best shot, got to his feet and won by knockout with a counterpunching display that will be remembered as one of the most courageous comebacks of all time.” McDonald and Romantic Warrior threw everything at Forever Young and came up short – I don’t think there is any point trying again.
Andrew Hawkins: Continuing the boxing metaphor, Muhammad Ali lost to Joe Frazier in the Fight of the Century before turning the tables in the rematch and then landing the decisive blow in the Thrilla in Manila. Victory required a tactical change from Ali, particularly the implementation of the ‘rope-a-dope’ strategy.
The question is, does Romantic Warrior have the ability to make a tactical change that could bring about a different result to the Rumble in Riyadh, particularly when the Dubai World Cup is going to be held under conditions that are far more favourable to Forever Young? If there is one, it’s eluding me – and it’s obviously eluding James McDonald, Danny Shum and Peter Lau too. Forever Young would win and they are making the right call in taking Romantic Warrior to the Dubai Turf.
Masanobu Takahashi: First of all, I respect the decision to target the Dubai Turf. If I were in the owner’s position, I wouldn’t have chosen the Dubai World Cup either. If they were to face-off again on Meydan’s dirt track, I believe it would favour Forever Young, as it is closer to American dirt compared to Riyadh ∎
