Let’s rewind a month. It was early August, Europe was baking in a heatwave, and the suitably-named Sun Goddess had just delivered Aidan O’Brien his 15th Group 1 win of the year. Ballydoyle’s maestro was scorching along.
The media talk wasn’t so much ‘if’ O’Brien would break his all-time record of 28 Group 1 wins in a year, it had leapt to how many more he might add. But one thing this sport teaches is that you don’t take anything for granted: since then, 14 European Group 1 races have passed, O’Brien is still stuck on 15 wins and his once dominant crop of three-year-olds have faltered.
There have been two big shocks for O’Brien’s Ballydoyle team in the time since Sun Goddess’s Phoenix Stakes win: the dual classic-winning filly Diamond Necklace losing her unbeaten record at Deauville last time, and the classic-winning colt Constitution River placing only third in the G1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York.
Constitution River was being hailed as the best three-year-old in Europe at the time. His conqueror that day, the Juddmonte homebred Item, is now making a strong case for himself. That makes for a tasty clash this weekend when the two face each other again in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes.
“I’d say Constitution River did a lot of things wrong on the day at York,” Item’s jockey Colin Keane told Idol Horse. “He jumped probably better than Ryan (Moore) wanted him to and then he hit the road (across the track) and he got set alight. He was probably in that gear too high for most of the way, so I’d imagine they’d be trying to get him to do things right. Obviously, he is a very good horse and he showed that before York.
“But Item has only disappointed once and that was when the ground went very bad in the Derby at Epsom. Other than that, he’s won and he’s improved from run to run, so hopefully he can keep doing that.”
O’Brien will be hoping otherwise. Irish Champions Weekend and Saturday’s G1 St Leger at Doncaster are usually productive days for Ballydoyle, and Ireland’s champion will want impetus into autumn.
Constitution River exacting revenge would be a signal result for O’Brien, and might reverse the unexpected drop-off among his star three-year-olds. His late summer dip has also included his G1 Derby winner Christmas Day’s defeat in the G2 Great Voltigeur, his G1 Irish 2,000 Guineas hero Gstaad being put in his place in the G1 Prix du Moulin, and G1 Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini well-beaten in the G2 Prix Niel.
On Saturday also, Christmas Day will seek redemption in the G1 St Leger at Doncaster, and the stable’s G1 1,000 Guineas and G1 Irish 1,000 Guineas heroines True Love and Precise will go in the G1 Matron Stakes on the Leopardstown card.
But whereas O’Brien has endured a big-race drought, Keane and Item’s trainer Andrew Balding enjoyed a bounty through August, and their brilliant Juddmonte four-year-old Blue Bolt, winner of the G1 Prix Rothschild ahead of Precise, is a tough Matron rival.
“Blue Bolt’s very strong and physical, she looks more like a colt than a filly,” Keane said. “She jumps, she travels, she has a high cruising speed and can lengthen off it. She’s been pretty flawless this year.
“In the last couple of runs, she’s gone a little bit left under pressure. That’s why I think Leopardstown will suit her a lot, so hopefully she has a good draw. But I think Aidan is going to run the two fillies and True Love was obviously very impressive around there when she won her trial.”
Constitution River’s unbeaten streak through the Dee Stakes, French Derby and Eclipse Stakes had him pegged as the one classic colt capable of running through the season to championship honours in a year when the crop looked less than vintage. Item’s bounce-back from his sole defeat in the Derby means he now has the look of a horse progressing past the classic heroes. Either way, Europe’s three-year-old colts as a whole have looked no better than par.
“I suppose they’ve all had their good and bad days throughout the season, but to be fair to my lad, that was a valid excuse in the Derby, and other than that he’s turned up every other time,” Keane added.
Meanwhile, O’Brien still has 32 European Group 1s to target – eight this weekend – plus contests across the globe including the Breeders’ Cup and the Hong Kong International Races, both of which have been good to him. He could still break the record, and if his three-year-olds lift from their dip this weekend, he’ll surely be back on track.
This Week In Racing History
It was September 13, 1853 when the John Scott-trained West Australian won the St Leger at Doncaster to become the first Triple Crown winner in England. The colt was only the second horse to have won the 2,000 Guineas and Derby to go on and attempt the St Leger as well, the first being Cotherstone who failed in 1843.
Fantastic Light and Galileo locked horns in a thrilling running of the G1 Irish Champion Stakes on September 8, 2001. Coolmore’s Derby and Irish Derby hero Galileo had defeated Godolphin’s Fantastic Light by two lengths in the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, but at Leopardstown the older horse got his revenge. Frankie Dettori put in a masterclass on Fantastic Light as the five-year-old held the three-year-old by a head.
Global Blackbook
The G3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes has produced some useful winners in its time, but never a star. Mackinnon and Daddy D T placed in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf after winning this mile contest, and Bowie’s Hero won a couple of Grade 1s later in his career, but most faded out of the spotlight. Yet there was plenty to like about Observed’s win in this year’s edition.
The bay colt ended up racing in the last pair under Juan Hernandez, made ground and switched out at the top of the straight, changed legs and quickened smartly to race into the lead, and changed legs again close to home, giving the impression there was plenty more in reserve than the three quarter-length margin might suggest. It was a good step-up from his maiden win at lowly Indianapolis a month prior.
Observed is trained by Todd Pletcher’s former assistant Jonathan Thomas, a man who was raised at the legendary Rokeby Farm around the last of the golden era horsemen and who is already proven as a Grade 1 trainer. The colt was purchased for US$240,000 at last year’s Keeneland September Sale, being by Kentucky Derby winner Mandaloun out of an unraced mare who has twice passed through the auction ring for a pittance.
But there is some special quality in Observed’s female line – Juddmonte Farms blood. His second dam Jibe finished second in the G1 Fillies Mile in Britain and was mid-division in the G1 1,000 Guineas there; his third dam is none other than the incredible Slightly Dangerous, whose offspring include the European champion miler Warning, the Derby winner Commander In Chief, Irish Derby second Deploy and the top-class Yashmak among eight individual black-type earners.
Observed is not the finished article by any stretch and there should be plenty of upside still, especially if those top-class genes have been passed down.
What’s Coming Up
Makybe Diva Stakes Day
Flemington, Australia, September 12
Flemington’s spring season starts to hit its straps with the track’s first Group 1 of the year, the Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600m. Mr Brightside will attempt to achieve his fourth straight victory in the race at age nine, fresh off a warm-up second in the G1 Memsie Stakes at Caulfield two weeks ago. But he faces a stiff task up against the brilliant mare Sheza Alibi, last autumn’s G1 Randwick Guineas and G1 Doncaster winner. Current G1 Cox Plate favourite Sir Delius is also in the field, ridden by Mr Brightside’s usual pilot Craig Williams.
Irish Champions Weekend
Leopardstown and The Curragh, Ireland, September 12 and 13
Seven Group 1 races across two days make this weekend at Leopardstown and The Curragh a must-watch. Saturday features the G1 Irish Champion Stakes in which Item and Constitution River will clash, as well as the G1 Matron Stakes for the fillies and mares over a mile in which last year’s winner Fallen Angel will attempt to repeat against this year’s star Blue Bolt. There’s also the upgraded G1 Golden Fleece Stakes for juveniles over nine furlongs.
Sunday brings Ireland’s premier sprint, the G1 Flying Five, as well as the G1 Irish St Leger, in which the champion stayer Scandinavia will be a short-priced favourite. The best of the juvenile colts will go in the G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes and the fillies in the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes.
St Leger Day
Doncaster, England, September 12
The pinnacle of Doncaster’s four-day meeting is the G1 St Leger, the world’s oldest classic, which dates back to 1776. Scandinavia was a good winner last year, completing three in a row for Aidan O’Brien and the trainer will attempt to win it for the 10th time all told with the Derby winner Christmas Day. No English Derby winner has won the St Leger though since Reference Point in 1987. A female jockey has never won the race at all, so Saffie Osborne will attempt to make history on the Joseph O’Brien-trained Highwayman. ∎
