2025 Melbourne Cup Preview: Runner-By-Runner Guide
Australia’s Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation. Get your full rundown on all 24 runners for the world’s most famous handicap.
THE 2025 MELBOURNE CUP – to be run at 3pm (ADST) on Tuesday, November 4 – looms as a fascinating contest as always. It is a race where there are a few clear chances at the head of the market but there are a number of horses capable of running into the placings at odds.
This year’s Group 1 Melbourne Cup will be run for A$10 million (US$6.48 million) for the first time. It is also set to feature the first ever American-trained runner.
There has been significant rain in Melbourne on Monday. However, if it doesn’t rain during the meeting on Tuesday, the Flemington track should dry out nicely.
Here is your look at the 24 horses for this year’s Melbourne Cup. All assessments have been done with a Soft (6) track in mind:
1. AL RIFFA (19)
6yo bay horse, Wootton Bassett – Love On My Mind (Galileo)
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Last 10 starts: 210x3x4211
Biggest win: 2025 G1 Irish St Leger
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 4th
It has been 92 years since a two-year-old Group 1 winner took the Melbourne Cup: Hall Mark, who won the AJC Sires’ Produce Stakes and the AJC Champagne Stakes in 1933.
That will change should topweight Al Riffa land the 2025 Melbourne Cup.
A precocious horse as a two-year-old, he won the G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes over seven furlongs (approximately 1408m). It was not the strongest National Stakes, but it is a race that has been won by horses like Pinatubo (whose first Australian two-year-olds step out earlier on Cup Day in the Maribyrnong Plate), a sire of three Melbourne Cup winners in Teofilo and champion stallions like Dubawi and Danehill Dancer.
Injury restricted him to two starts as a three-year-old in 2023, the best of which was a narrow second to subsequent Arc winner Ace Impact in the G2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano (2000m).
He returned at four and raced in four separate countries across five starts, winning the G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin (2400m) at Hoppegarten and running champion three-year-old City Of Troy to a length in the G1 Coral-Eclipse over 10 furlongs (approximately 2011m) at Sandown. He was also midfield in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2400m), regarded by many as the best race in the world.
He started this year in Saudi Arabia in the G2 Neom Turf Cup (2100m) – a race that will be run as a Group 1 for the first time next year – finishing third to Japanese star Shin Emperor. He looked in need of ground over the same distance when fourth in the G1 Prix Ganay at Longchamp and then ran top globetrotter Rebel’s Romance to just under two lengths in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot.
The decision to step him up in trip was intriguing after that run and was the pivot that saw him develop into a Melbourne Cup contender. Stepped up to 2800m for the first time in the G2 Curragh Cup – a race won before by Melbourne Cup winners Vintage Crop, Rekindling and Twilight Payment and three-time runner-up Red Cadeaux – he raced right clear to win by five lengths over Shackleton. He looked every bit a classy stayer, pairing his ability to quicken with that untested stamina to emerge.
That was proven again in the G1 Irish St Leger, Ireland’s best staying contest. He went clear by four lengths over the then-unbeaten Amiloc, winner of the G2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, and looked as though he could have opened up by further. Only one horse has won both races in the same year – Vintage Crop in 1993 – but Vinnie Roe ran second in 2004 after winning the St Leger too.
What is going to be tough for Al Riffa is the 59kg, although the limit has been raised by 1kg to 51kg and so it would be the equivalent of 58kg in previous years. Still, no horse has carried that sort of weight to win since Makybe Diva in 2005; before that, one must go all the way back to Think Big in 1975. It is one difficult impost that he must carry, especially when he has to give 8kg away to in-form types like Valiant King and Torranzino.
In his corner is trainer Joseph O’Brien, looking for his third Melbourne Cup win at the age of just 32. Only nine trainers have won three Melbourne Cups and none was younger than O’Brien is currently; Etienne de Mestre, who won the first two Cups with Archer, won his third with Tim Whiffler aged 35, while modern greats Lee Freedman and Bart Cummings were both 39.
Taking the ride is Mark Zahra, who is looking for his third win in four years. He won in the same Australian Bloodstock colours on Gold Trip in 2022 before adding a second aboard Without A Fight in 2023.
He couldn’t make it three in a row last year on Circle Of Fire but the stayer, bred by Queen Elizabeth II, outran his odds in finishing sixth. Currently at the peak of his powers, Zahra is arguably the pick of all riders when it comes to the Cup. That is even more true after a remarkable four-timer in four consecutive races on Derby Day, including the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) on Tentyris and the G1 Victoria Derby (2500m) on Observer.
Should Zahra win, it will put him in the same conversation as Harry White, who won a record-equalling four Melbourne Cups between 1974 and 1979. Glen Boss also achieved a similar feat but with the same horse, Makybe Diva, in 2003, 2004 and 2005.
It’s hard to believe that Zahra’s booking could have had any controversy, but some believed that Dylan Browne McMonagle should have been brought out from Ireland. It’s understandable, given he is the only jockey to have won aboard the horse and he has ridden Al Riffa a treat this year in particular.
It is tough luck for the new Irish champion jockey, but Zahra is equally talented and has proven in recent years that he rides the race like few others. Browne McMonagle will get his chance to win the race in the years ahead.
So can he carry 59kg and still prevail? It’s going to be tough, but there is no doubt he is a class factor here. He is a major chance and one that must be included in all exotics.
2. BUCKAROO (12)
7yo bay gelding, Fastnet Rock – Roheryn (Galileo)
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Craig Williams
Last 10 starts: 9x970x3232
Biggest win: 2024 G1 Underwood Stakes
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 5th
There are few more popular horses in Australia currently than Buckaroo, especially after his fighting finish against stablemate Via Sistina in the G1 Cox Plate (2040m).
That meant that he had finished second in both the Cox Plate and the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) across the last two seasons, a feat achieved by a very select band of horses. The last horse to finish second in both races was Fields Of Omagh, who would eventually win the Cox Plate twice.
For 12 months, it has sounded unlikely that Buckaroo would return to the Melbourne Cup after he finished ninth as favourite last year.
He was reportedly so exhausted after the race that it is remarkable that he has returned in the form that he has, although Chris Waller, Ozzie Kheir and Buckaroo’s connections would not have pressed on this year if they didn’t think he were capable of matching his very best ratings.
However, watching that race again makes it clear that he was given no chance to see out the 3200m last year and that a quieter ride can make all the difference. He quickened rapidly from the 1000m to the 400m, almost breaking 34 seconds for that 600m split – very fast when it comes to staying races.
From gate 12 this year, he should be able to settle ever so slightly closer in a one-off position. As long as he isn’t asked to make a wide looping run again but is instead held together into the straight, he should be able to sprint into the finish.
His autumn form left questions about whether Buckaroo was able to return to his very best. However, this spring, he has been terrific even without winning, finishing third in the G1 Memsie Stakes (1400m), second in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m), third in the G1 Might And Power Stakes (2000m) and second in the Cox Plate. Of those, only the Might And Power run could be put into the disappointing basket, if any.
A wet track shouldn’t pose too many issues for him, although he probably wouldn’t want it bottomless. It may expose his stamina, but if Craig Williams can hold him together into the straight, it should all come together for him.
The ever-popular Williams becomes the 14th jockey to ride Buckaroo at his 31st start.
Williams had to find a replacement after his original intended mount Sir Delius, who was set to start a hot favourite, was withdrawn two weeks ago. He’s struck gold in Buckaroo.
He will be looking for his second Melbourne Cup after finally taking the prize on Vow And Declare in 2019. He was supposed to ride Dunaden in 2011 but an untimely suspension ruled him out.
Fun pedigree fact, too – Buckaroo is one of two sets of siblings in this year’s Melbourne Cup. He lines up alongside his year-younger half-brother Middle Earth, both out of the Galileo mare Roheryn. The other pair of siblings are Arapaho and Athabascan.
He is one of five runners for Chris Waller, widely considered Australia’s best conditioner of stayers – he’s certainly the most prolific, as proven by his strong Cup hand. Waller won the Melbourne Cup with Verry Elleegant in 2021 and a second victory is only a matter of time.
3. ARAPAHO (15)
9yo bay gelding, Lope De Vega – Alzubra (Dansili)
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Rachel King
Last 10 starts: 5241×36408
Biggest win: 2025 G1 Sydney Cup
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 7th
Ask any Australian racing expert which staying performance was the best performance over the last year, almost all would nominate Arapaho’s track record to win the G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) in April.
It was a sensational staying effort that confirmed Arapaho as one of the most consistent stayers of the decade. His Sydney Cup victory added to a resume that includes successes in the G1 Tancred Stakes (2400m), G2 Zipping Classic (2400m), G3 Premier’s Cup (2000m), Listed Canberra Cup (2000m) and Listed Grafton Cup (2350m) since mid-2022.
Behind Arapaho in the Sydney Cup were River Of Stars (third) and Athabascan (fifth). Also notable is that he meets River Of Stars only 1kg worse for defeating her three and a half lengths, while he meets Athabascan 2.5kg worse for a four-length defeat.
Now, he returns to the Melbourne Cup which he contested for the first time in 2022, finishing 11th to Gold Trip after a mixed preparation. Smokin’ Romans (seventh in 2022) is the other runner this year who contested that Melbourne Cup; incredibly, neither has run in the race in the three years since.
This time in, he returned with a remarkable Group 1 placing in the Winx Stakes over 1400m and was good for sixth in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m). However, he was just fair in fourth in the G3 Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) before pulling up with issues out of the G1 The Metropolitan (2400m) when he was 15th to Royal Supremacy.
Those issues almost derailed his Melbourne Cup preparation but Arapaho was given one final chance to make the field, stepping out in last Wednesday’s G3 Bendigo Cup (2400m) under a hefty 61kg – giving every other runner between 6.5kg and 7kg.
He was ridden quietly and made late ground for eighth. Knight’s Choice ran a similar race last year for fifth at Bendigo before winning the Melbourne Cup. It was essentially a barrier trial and he will be far better suited here.
Is he suited enough, though, to turn around his form to the extent needed to win? His best efforts have had a base from which to achieve those peak ratings and that simply doesn’t exist this year.
However, if you treat him based on the Sydney Cup effort or any of his best efforts, he is a leading contender. He also should be fine whatever the track is and will adapt whether firm or soft.
English-born Rachel King will attempt to join Michelle Payne as a female jockey to win the race. King, based in Sydney these days, has become very popular particularly in Japan.
Earlier this year, she became the first female to ride a JRA Group 1 winner on the flat when she partnered Costa Nova to take the February Stakes at Tokyo.
She had her first Melbourne Cup ride on Arapaho in 2022 and has been the only jockey to win on him since May of that year, when Dylan Gibbons won aboard him.
His trainer Bjorn Baker saddles up his fifth runner and his third on his own. In addition to Arapaho, he had She’s Ideel finish 10th in 2021 and Harris Tweed finish fifth twice in 2009 and 2010. His father Murray trained The Phantom to finish second in 1990.
Intriguingly, he contests the race alongside his half-brother Athabascan, who is two years younger. They are both out of the British mare Alzubra, who was a Listed winner in France. Arapaho and Athabascan have faced each other on six occasions, with the ledger 5-1 in Arapaho’s favour; the only time Athabascan finished in front came in The Metropolitan last month.
Expect Arapaho to settle further forward from the middle gate and perform better than the market suggests, particularly if the market rates him off his run last week. It would be slightly surprising to see him win, but he’s potentially one to include in exotics.
4. VAUBAN (2)
8yo chestnut gelding, Galiway – Waldfest (Hurricane Run)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Last 10 starts: 0x130x3650
Biggest win: 2024 G2 Lonsdale Cup
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 14th
The weight of history stands firmly in the way of Vauban, who arrives here this year a different conveyance to the years before. For one, he flies the Australian flag this year after arriving from Ireland the last two years. He also will line up for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, having transferred to their stable from Willie Mullins after last year’s Melbourne Cup.
Much of the last 12 months has been about getting Vauban to settle down. That was his issue in 2023, when he finished 14th to Without A Fight as favourite, and while he was better last year, he still couldn’t quicken from midfield to finish 11th to Knight’s Choice.
He has not raced beyond 2400m over the last year and has been given a traditional Australian preparation this time around.
He has mixed his form: he was terrific winning the G3 Sky High Stakes (2000m) in March, fantastic in running home well for third in the G1 Tancred Stakes (2400m) and the G2 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m), unlucky in last month’s G1 The Metropolitan (2400m) and disappointing at his other three outings, including last start in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m).
It has become clear that he needs a race shape to suit. The three disappointments, they have gone faster than standard early and then come home slower. When they’ve gone slower than standard early, he’s been able to sprint home.
It makes me think that, despite him being a stayer, he might actually be better as a miler in Australia. If he can get into the right types of races at a mile to 2000m, that might be his sweet spot. Yes, he was a Grade 1-winning jumper in the UK and Ireland but they are entirely different races to the flat.
What is in his favour this year is that there doesn’t appear to be the speed of years gone by. Of course, something could happen like the Caulfield Cup – where Adelaide River bolted mid-race and created a fast tempo – but it doesn’t look like it will be a breakneck speed in the early stages. So the circumstances could be there to get him to run his best race yet in the Cup.
He also won’t have any issues with a wet track, having performed during the depths of winter on yielding tracks in Europe.
Gai Waterhouse is a Melbourne Cup winner already, having tasted success with Fiorente in 2013. Like Vauban, he joined her stable after running in the Melbourne Cup the year before.
Waterhouse’s training partner Adrian Bott is yet to have that success though. They would have been confident a few weeks ago when Sir Delius was the short-priced favourite and it is hard to imagine anything other than victory had he lined up. However, they are left with Vauban as their representative.
Melbourne’s reigning champion jockey Blake Shinn jumps on Vauban for the second time as he looks for his second Cup, 17 years after his first on Viewed. Surprisingly, he has only ridden in the race once in the last eight years, finishing 10th on Vow And Declare in 2022.
His closest finish other than his victory came when he was eighth at his first ride 21 years ago, as a 17-year-old on Catchmeifyoucan for the late Mike Moroney.
Given Vauban’s recent form, it makes sense to oppose him. Even if the race shape suits, I’m not certain that the two miles is up his alley. I would love to see him campaigned as a mile to 2000m horse next year as I think that is where he can have his best success in Australia.
From the gate I expect him to settle further forward than he did last year. If they run slowly through the first half, he will finish off well. However, others are likely to be finishing over the top of him down the centre of the track.
5. CHEVALIER ROSE (5)
8yo bay horse, Deep Impact – Viane Rose (Sevres Rose)
Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu
Jockey: Damian Lane
Last 10 starts: x11x070x0x
Biggest win: 2024 G2 Stayers Stakes
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 23rd
There are so many stallions in the world but only the very best are considered breed shapers, those that have changed the thoroughbred and had an immeasurable impact.
Deep Impact is one such stallion. The best Japanese sire of all time, he is beloved for the sheer breadth of his success. His sons and daughters have struck success all over the world, including in Australia where his son Tosen Stardom won the G1 Mackinnon Stakes during the Melbourne Cup Carnival in 2017.
One race that is eluding him, though, is the Melbourne Cup – and Chevalier Rose may be his last chance to secure that elusive victory.
Deep Impact died in 2019 aged 17 and so his oldest horses are about to turn six. It doesn’t look as though there are any among those final couple of crops with the ability to make it to a race like this.
Enter Chevalier Rose.
A stakes winner at two, he finished fifth in the G1 Hopeful Stakes (2000m) as a juvenile in 2020. However, from late in his three-year-old career until the end of 2023, he essentially remained around Listed company in races between 1600m and 2000m.
It wasn’t until he was stepped up in trip midway through last year that he started to strike consistent form. Placings in the Listed Metropolitan Stakes (2400m) and the G2 Meguro Kinen (2500m) – a race won by Melbourne Cup runner-up Pop Rock in 2006 – were followed by a surprise victory in the G2 Kyoto Daishoten (2400m) and a gritty victory in the G2 Stayers Stakes (3600m).
The Stayers Stakes was won by Delta Blues the year before his Melbourne Cup success, while it also produced last year’s runner-up Warp Speed. Even though Chevalier Rose didn’t appear a natural stayer there, it was the springboard to a trip to Melbourne.
Chevalier Rose’s form so far in 2025 has been poor. He has raced four times for 12th in the G2 Nikkei Sho (2500m), seventh in the G1 Tenno Sho Spring (3200m), 12th in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen (2200m) and 14th in the G2 Sapporo Kinen (2000m). On all four occasions, he has been ridden much colder than he was in his two wins last year but his efforts have been uninspiring.
Expect him to be ridden further forward here. He is unlikely to lead, but from a good draw, he can settle within the first six to eight runners.
Trainer Hisashi Shimizu has already tasted Australian success with Mer De Glace in the 2019 Caulfield Cup, also in the same Carrot Club colours.
Meanwhile, if you were to name the best rider in Australia who doesn’t have a Melbourne Cup to their name, many would nominate Damian Lane. He has one of the best staying resumes of any Australian rider and won arguably the world’s premier two-mile contest, Japan’s G1 Tenno Sho (Spring) over 3200m, earlier this year on Redentor.
He has already combined with Shimizu before in a Cup, finishing sixth in 2019 on Mer De Glace, and there is no doubt he is a more complete rider now. He would be better able to react if the pace were as slow as it was that year.
If only he had the horsepower under him to do it.
On his 2025 form, it looks impossible to find Chevalier Rose. Add in the potential wet track, which his damside pedigree suggests he should handle but which he has struggled on in Japan, and it simply looks too tough a task.
6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE (9)
6yo grey horse, Wootton Bassett – Kyurem (Verglas)
Trainer: Alessandro Botti
Jockey: Stephane Pasquier
Last 10 starts: 71x4x13x34
Biggest win: 2025 G3 Prix de Barbeville
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 1st
The notion of backing “greys in the wet” – that grey horses seem to grow a leg when the track is wet underfoot – is an old wives’ tale, one of many superstitions that pop up around horse racing
For French horse Presage Nocturne, though, a wet track would only add to his chances of becoming the third French-trained Melbourne Cup winner after Americain (2010) and Dunaden (2011).
Not that he wants it bottomless, like it was in 1976 when Van Der Hum swum to victory like Katie Ledecky. Just wet enough that he’s able to get his toe in. And the forecast looks perfect for him.
Presage Nocturne is trained by France-based Italian Alessandro Botti, whose cousin Marco finished third with Jakkalberry in 2012.
Botti, the son of champion Italian trainer Giuseppe, has been based in Chantilly for almost a decade but there are still Italian links for him. Among Presage Nocturne’s owners is Carlo Pellegatti, who was the official AC Milan journalist for three decades when late Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi owned the football club – he is still a prolific YouTuber today, aged 75.
Presage Nocturne emerged as a staying prospect this time last year, finishing third to Australian-owned Sevenna’s Knight in the G3 Prix Gladiateur (3100m) at Longchamp.
He failed at his next start in Group 1 company but he has not missed the top four in six starts since across three countries.
Wins came in the Listed Prix Arcangues (2500m) on Deauville’s polytrack and the G3 Prix de Barbeville (3000m) at Longchamp. Only two Prix de Barbeville winners have run in the Melbourne Cup – 2011 winner Dunaden, who went on to complete the double at Flemington later that year, and Marmelo, who was down the track in the 2017 Melbourne Cup but returned a year later to finish second to Cross Counter.
He was fourth to Byzantine Dream in the G2 Red Sea Turf Handicap (3000m) in Saudi Arabia – form that has been franked throughout the year – and third to France’s most promising stayer Candelari in the newly upgraded G1 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (3100m).
At his last run in Europe, he was a dead-heat third in a muddling G2 Prix Kergorlay (3000m) at Deauville before producing arguably the best Melbourne Cup trial in the Caulfield Cup two weeks ago.
Presage Nocturne’s regular rider Stephane Pasquier makes the trip from France to ride in his first Melbourne Cup. He has ridden all over the world but has only ridden once in Australia – that coming when he was fourth on Presage Nocturne in the Caulfield Cup.
Pasquier may not be as much of a showman as his countryman Gerald Mosse, who won on Americain in 2010, but he has his share of anecdotes. He was ruled out from riding for almost two months after a glass shattered in his hand when French striker David Trezeguet hit the crossbar during the penalty shootout that determined the 2006 FIFA World Cup.
He is a proven big-race rider, although it has been almost a decade since he won a Group 1 race outside of France.
There is also a little pedigree tick, too – his dam Kyurem is a half-sister to Simenon, who finished fourth in the 2013 Melbourne Cup. And for those looking for an omen – thanks to X follower Jo – the last grey to win was Efficient, who was saddlecloth number six jumping from gate nine, just as Presage Nocturne will.
Presage Nocturne ticks so many boxes, both important and negligible. For months, he has been near the top of my personal rankings that I keep across the year but the prospect of a soft track has seen him rise to the top.
He appears the most suitable horse for the Melbourne Cup and, whatever track is presented on Tuesday, he will be a leading player. Expect him to settle just beyond midfield before coming to the centre of the track and – hopefully – appearing like a ghostly apparition on the horizon.
7. MIDDLE EARTH (13)
6yo bay gelding, Roaring Lion – Roheryn (Galileo)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ethan Brown
Last 10 starts: x159x50903
Biggest win: 2024 G3 Aston Park Stakes
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 16th
Plenty of Tolkein fans will be sure to flock to Middle Earth, hoping that he might be the Lord of the Reins. Or, if it’s wet, Lord of the Rains. Boom tish.
Fun pedigree fact – Middle Earth is one of two sets of siblings in this year’s Melbourne Cup. He lines up alongside his year-older half-brother Buckaroo, both out of the Galileo mare Roheryn. The other pair of siblings are Arapaho and Athabascan.
Middle Earth has been touted as a Melbourne Cup prospect since trainer Ciaron Maher joined the ownership at the end of his three-year-old season. This came after he won the Melrose Handicap at York, a race that has been won by Melbourne Cup placegetters Soulcombe and Mount Athos as well as Australian Group 1 winners Speed Gifted and Tawqeet.
At his four-year-old debut last May, he landed victory right on the line in the G3 Aston Park Stakes over a mile and a half at Newbury before he ran a decent third in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes over the same trip at Royal Ascot. He was injured in the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at the course and distance in July last year, though, and did not race again until earlier this year.
That was here at Flemington, where he won the Australian Cup Prelude (2000m) – defeating his stablemate, last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Duke De Sessa, with a late flourish. Since then, though, he hasn’t quite measured up to expectations, often getting back before running home late.
The first time he really got conditions to suit was in the Caulfield Cup, but he was only fair in finishing 11th, six lengths from Half Yours.
Back in the day, Middle Earth would have run in the Mackinnon Stakes on Derby Day but, with that race no longer there, he instead ran in the G3 JRA Cup (2040m) on Cox Plate day and, with blinkers applied, he ran a good enough third.
He is a difficult horse to assess on his form. He’s been all but guaranteed a run for much of the year and so they have been able to plot a path that wouldn’t affect his handicap mark but that would also have him fit and raring to go on Cup day.
Still, it’s not as though he has been running sneakily well either. He’s been running fairly without setting the world alight.
Ethan Brown, currently Victoria’s leading jockey this season, makes his Melbourne Cup debut. It’s a long way from his roots in Alice Springs, where he grew up and began riding a decade ago.
He has become an important part of the Maher stable setup and has won nine Group 1 races, eight of them for Maher. He is also riding in tremendous form currently, having won aboard eight of his last 28 rides before Tuesday.
Intriguingly, he has only ridden at 3000m and beyond on 11 occasions and has never won, but he has been placed five times. In fact, not only has he not ridden in the Melbourne Cup before but he has also never ridden in the Sydney Cup, Adelaide Cup or Brisbane Cup – all at two miles. It’s a strange omission on a burgeoning resume.
It’s unlikely to be a winning Melbourne Cup debut for Brown, but between his tremendous horsemanship and Maher’s methodical approach, Middle Earth will have every chance to run to his best form.
Still, on the balance of everything, there will be no return to Middle Earth on this Cup Day.
8. MEYDAAN (22)
5yo bay gelding, Frankel – Nezwaah (Dubawi)
Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford
Jockey: James McDonald
Last 10 starts: 47×5205239
Biggest win: 2024 Listed Cocked Hat Stakes
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 12th
Father-son training partnership Simon and Ed Crisford have trained a Melbourne Cup winner to run in the Melbourne Cup – but they have not won the race!
How?
They prepared Without A Fight to run 11th to Gold Trip in 2022. He did not return to the UK, instead remaining with another father-son pair – Anthony and Sam Freedman – to win the Melbourne Cup a year later.
It was wet ground that brought Without A Fight unstuck in his first Cup attempt and it may be the same with Meydaan, whose sole effort on a soft track saw him fade out to finish last. It actually wasn’t too different to his previous three-year-old form last year, but it did look like his wheels spun on that ground.
It was the same with his dam, Nezwaah, a Group 1-winning mare on good ground who was woeful on anything with a hint of moisture.
Meydaan has had a busy season and has also stretched from a mile to, now, two miles – an unfamiliar pattern for Europeans. He has also mixed his form considerably.
The Meydaan who was second to Al Aasy in the G3 Glorious Stakes would be in the mix. The Meydaan who was third to Group 1 winners Giavellotto and Kalpana at set weights in the G3 September Stakes on the Kempton all-weather would be among the top two or three chances.
That Meydaan, though, doesn’t always show up.
I was keen on him in the Caulfield Cup but he didn’t travel well down the side and was also not given the best of rides by Andrea Atzeni. After getting shuffled back, he finished off well in a manner that suggests the Flemington 3200m should suit.
Taking the ride from Atzeni is Cup winner James McDonald, who partnered Verry Elleegant to a massive success in 2021.
McDonald is on the verge of landing his third World’s Best Jockey title in four years – a mantle which is determined by performance in the best 100 Group 1 races on the planet by ratings.
The award is often disparaged by those in Europe and North America, who can’t understand how some kid from down under – a dairy farmer’s son, no less – could POSSIBLY be better than their elite riders like Ryan Moore, William Buick or Irad Ortiz Jr.
Those that have seen the Kiwi jockey ride week in and week out, though, know that he is as good as anyone on the planet. He is arguably the most complete package as a rider – he is a horseman of the highest order, he knows form inside out, he’s got incredible balance, he treads that fine line between delicate poise and fierce vigour and he is media savvy too.
He has been incredibly confident about Meydaan’s chances and he is a pretty good judge as far as jockeys go. For me, there are just too many little things against him to have him any higher than midfield but he wouldn’t shock me if he ran into the placings.
9. ABSURDE (4)
8yo bay gelding, Fastnet Rock – Incroyable (Singspiel)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Last 10 starts: 5x3132x3x7
Biggest win: 2023 Ebor Handicap
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 13th
Trainer Willie Mullins and the H O S Syndicate, set up by Irish businesswoman Margaret Heffernan for her family, are already celebrating their best week in racing – and it may not be done yet!
On Saturday – Sunday morning, Australian time – their horse Ethical Diamond won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf over a mile and a half at Del Mar, just outside San Diego. He was an outsider, but he showed a phenomenal turn of foot to run down two-time Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Rebel’s Romance and another Godolphin runner, El Cordobes. Arc runner-up Minnie Hauk, Amiloc – second to Al Riffa last time out – and enigmatic globetrotter Goliath were among those in behind.
Once upon a time, Ethical Diamond would have been at Flemington rather than Del Mar. He won a ballot exempt spot in the Melbourne Cup and would have certainly been on the plane. However, two things ruled him out.
One, Heffernan’s syndicate already had Absurde heading for his third attempt at the Melbourne Cup after two terrific runs in the past. And two, he would have failed the strict vet scans that were introduced after a raft of breakdowns last decade.
While it is disappointing to have horses ruled out in that manner, it is much more preferable to have strict vetting and a race to enjoy rather than the race losing its social licence entirely. If another horse breaks down in the race, that social licence will be gone.
Anyway, it gives Mullins and the Heffernan family the chance to potentially enjoy a rare trans-Pacific double.
After Mullins won the Breeders’ Cup Turf, adding the prestigious event to his incredible dual purpose resume (on the flat and over jumps), many were asking: is there anything that the Irish maestro cannot do?
Perhaps the answer is, win the Melbourne Cup. He has finished second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh without winning. Talk about hitting the crossbar!
Absurde, like his former stablemate Vauban, is aiming to become the first horse since Comic Court in 1950 to win the Melbourne Cup at his third attempt after two unplaced runs. He would be the first since Empire Rose in 1988 to win for the first time at his third attempt.
Unlike Vauban, though, he has shown that – with even luck – he could already have been a Melbourne Cup placegetter, if not a winner. He should have finished closer last year than his fifth to Knight’s Choice.
In the year since, Absurde’s only win came in a handicap hurdle at Plumpton – not something you’d often see in the form of a Melbourne Cup runner – while he was third in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, a race he won in 2024. He was a terrific third in the G3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester before two even efforts in stakes races at York and the Curragh.
This year, he has had a run in the Caulfield Cup first rather than going to the Melbourne Cup fresh. He ran on late but was never in a challenging position.
The change in preparation may be a Mullins masterstroke, but I’m also not convinced he’s going as well this year. He looks to have lost a length or two and that could prove his undoing.
Kerrin McEvoy is taking his 23rd ride in the Melbourne Cup, a quarter of a century after he won at his first attempt on Brew in 2000, and he has a remarkable overall record: three wins, two seconds, one third and three fourths, while he has finished in the top half of the field at 18 of his 22 rides.
Since his most recent win in 2018, he has had six rides and has not finished further back than seventh.
McEvoy already holds the record for the longest gap between two Melbourne Cup wins at 16 years – although that could change should Blake Shinn win aboard Vauban this year – and he could join Bobbie Lewis and Harry White as a four-time Cup winner here. He could also join Lewis in winning four Cups over a 25-year period.
It will be borderline as to whether he can maintain his great record in finishing in the top half of the field. He can run well, but whether he can win…well, dismiss Willie Mullins at your peril. And I’m facing peril.
10. FLATTEN THE CURVE (17)
7yo chestnut gelding, Zarak – Lailoma (Teofilo)
Trainer: Henk Grewe
Jockey: Thore Hammer-Hansen
Last 10 starts: 011x11411x
Biggest win: 2025 G2 Oleander-Rennen
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 10th
If there is any horse this year that is going to get attention based solely on names, it will be Flatten The Curve and his rider Thore Hammer-Hansen.
Of course, Flatten The Curve is a reference that anyone who lived through the Covid-19 pandemic – so all of us – will remember vividly. It was a term relating to stifling the spread of the coronavirus so as not to flood the healthcare system.
Lockdowns were essentially a tool to flatten the curve, so Melburnians – who suffered some of the strictest and longest lockdowns in the western world – are sure to cringe at the name.
What might give them a bit of heart is the superhero coming to the rescue – Thore Hammer-Hansen, the second-generation jockey with a Danish pedigree, a German upbringing and a global perspective.
Flatten The Curve was originally trained by Carina Fey in France, where he looked a middling handicapper who surely would never take to the world stage.
Transferred to German trainer Henk Grewe late last year, though, he has been unbeaten on turf since with his only defeat coming in the G3 Belmont Gold Cup behind Parchment Party at his only attempt at dirt – and the race was only transferred to the dirt less than an hour before the race!
He has won four staying stakes races in Germany, including the G2 Oleander-Rennen (3200m) – won by 2017 Melbourne Cup 11th Red Cardinal and Sound, who was 12th in 2019 at his second Cup attempt.
He also travelled to the United States and won a fairly new race, the Bowling Green Gold Cup, at the undulating Kentucky Downs racetrack in southern Kentucky. It is very much a European-style racecourse in the United States and he was much the best there; Tawny Port, who was five and a half lengths behind in second, was just beaten a nose in the G1 Canadian International over a mile and a half last month but was down the track behind Ethical Diamond in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf on Saturday.
Red Cardinal also travelled to the United States after winning the Oleander-Rennen, taking the Belmont Gold Cup (run on its intended turf surface).
With the similarities between Red Cardinal and Flatten The Curve, it would suggest that Flatten The Curve should be looking at a midfield finish. However, this is a very different Cup to the one in which Red Cardinal ran in and Flatten The Curve does look to have assets that will translate well to Australian racing, like a good turn of foot.
He is one who will be suited by any rain that comes in that he will handle it whereas others won’t.
Hammer-Hansen makes his Australian debut but has been in the country for a week, working the horse and learning about the way racing works down here. That extra time should prove beneficial, although whether it will help in a race is anyone’s guess. That said, Hammer-Hansen is a talented rider – about to be named Germany’s champion for the second straight year – and plenty of international opportunities await him.
Expect him to ease from the wider gate and come with one swooping run.
11. LAND LEGEND (16)
6yo chestnut gelding, Galileo – Landikusic (Dansili)
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Last 10 starts: x768x39500
Biggest win: 2024 G1 The Metropolitan
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 21st
Twelve months ago, Land Legend looked the ideal type to develop into the leading local contender for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups in 2025.
Unfortunately, it hasn’t quite gone to plan because he finished last in the Caulfield Cup. However, it could be one of the greatest training performances Chris Waller has ever produced if he gets Land Legend to win the Melbourne Cup – and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.
Last year, Land Legend raced so fiercely under Zac Purton that it is a miracle that he managed to finish third in the Caulfield Cup and eighth in the Melbourne Cup. Based on the way he has been ridden in eight starts since – at or near the rear of the field – the whole year has been about trying to teach him to settle.
This preparation, he made amazing late ground for third in the Spring Preview Handicap (1400m) at Rosehill, he was fair late in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) at Randwick, he was solid in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield before the wheels fell off when finishing last in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m).
Whether Waller’s year-long quest has worked or not will finally be tested on Tuesday.
Land Legend is one of five runners for Waller, widely considered Australia’s best conditioner of stayers – he’s certainly the most prolific, as proven by his strong Cup hand. Waller won the Melbourne Cup with Verry Elleegant in 2021 and a second victory is only a matter of time.
A Land Legend win would be the pinnacle though, proof that all of his systems are as good as can be.
Taking the ride is Brazilian whiz Joao Moreira, who has some of the best hands among any rider worldwide. Known as the Magic Man, he has struck success all over the globe.
It is fair to say though that some of the “magic” has worn off for Australian punters after two widely debated rides on Soulcombe, runner-up in 2023, and last year’s favourite Buckaroo.
Those that dismiss Moreira based on his previous rides in the Melbourne Cup – already folly – will be ignoring the fact that he is riding as well as ever. He dominated during his Japanese stint earlier this year, winning three Group 1 races in three weeks. He then went home to Brazil and managed to add South America’s greatest race, the G1 Gran Premio Latinoamericano, on Caulfield Cup weekend.
Magic certainly will be required on Land Legend, though, given his current form.
From gate 16, Moreira will likely head back on Land Legend – although whether he will go as far back as his recent starts is another question entirely. If he can get him to settle, he will run far better than expected – but it is a big if.
Wet ground should be to his liking if he can get his toe in, too.
It’s impossible to have him on his current form, but don’t be shocked if he does run better than expected. And if he does manage to win, expect Waller’s tears to flow freely.
12. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (11)
9yo chestnut gelding, Ghibellines – Inferno (Yamanin Vital)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ben Melham
Last 10 starts: 0310×72948
Biggest win: 2022 G1 Turnbull Stakes
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 17th
For the first time in three years, Smokin’ Romans returns to the Melbourne Cup. He finished seventh to Gold Trip in 2022 and is one of two runners from that year who returns this year. The other was Arapaho, who finished 11th; incredibly, neither has run in the race in the three years since.
In 2022, it was the then-Jamie Kah who rode Smokin’ Romans. This year, it is her now-husband Ben Melham who will jump aboard the Ciaron Maher-trained stayer.
And whereas in 2022, Smokin’ Romans had to carry my weight around Flemington, he won’t have that issue this time around.
Now a nine-year-old, Smokin’ Romans is aiming to become the oldest horse ever to win the Melbourne Cup.
In the three years since he last contested the Cup, he has had 28 starts for two wins in the G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2600m) on the final day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival last year and the Listed Warrnambool Cup (2350m), beating Torranzino, in May this year.
He led before finishing second to Arapaho on a heavy track in the G2 Zipping Classic (2400m) last year and his best efforts have come on soft ground, so any rain that comes will be seen as a positive.
This time in, he was fair first-up at Moonee Valley over 2040m before leading until the final stages in a 2000m quality handicap at Caulfield. He was sent to the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m), also leading up before weakening into ninth, before he stayed on for fourth in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m).
He then went to the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m), striking interference before fading to finish eighth behind Onesmoothoperator, but he pulled up lame post-race. Initially, the stable indicated that it would put an end to his Melbourne Cup hopes but a decision was then made to run after he passed the scans.
This time around, he likely sits second – or, alternatively, leads – from gate 11 under Melham.
The biggest query for me is whether he sees out two miles. Every time he’s stretched out beyond 2600m, his stamina has looked tested and against this class of horse, it is hard to see him being suited by a stamina test. A wet track should help him but it will also expose any stamina concerns.
He does look like the third stringer of Maher’s hand, behind Royal Supremacy and Middle Earth.
It has been eight years since Melham finished second on Johannes Vermeer behind Rekindling and he would dearly like to go one better. It is unlikely to be this year, though.
13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (24)
7yo bay gelding, Galileo – Lady Lara (Excellent Art)
Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Tim Clark
Last 10 starts: x742x82106
Biggest win: 2022 G2 King Edward VII Stakes
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 22nd
Remarkably, Changingoftheguard is the second Melbourne Cup acceptor in 16 years with this name
A horse with the very same name was withdrawn on race morning in 2009 to the dismay of trainer David Hayes. An Ebor Handicap runner-up, he would only have one start in Australia before he died from a ruptured bowel during a simple gelding operation.
The second Changingoftheguard has had a more fruitful career in Australia after arriving from Europe.
Like the original, he was trained in Ireland by Aidan O’Brien and raced by Coolmore before coming down under. He was a superior performer, too: he won the G2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2022 as well as the G3 Chester Vase, while he raced admirably in contests like the G1 Epsom Derby and G2 Hardwicke Stakes.
Since arriving in Australia and joining the Kris Lees stable at Newcastle, Changingoftheguard has emerged as a stout, dour stayer. His sole win down under came when leading all of the way in the Listed City Tattersalls Cup (2400m) – in a five-horse field – at Randwick in September. He was ridden a treat that day by James McDonald, opening up by a big margin but putting the brake and accelerator on at just the right time.
He was travelling a treat when he blundered early in the straight in the G1 The Metropolitan (2400m) early last month; he was eased down and it is impossible to know where he would have finished. Given one final run before the Melbourne Cup, he sat handy and weakened out in a disappointing effort in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) behind Torranzino.
What is slightly concerning for punters – and perhaps an ace up the sleeve of Team Williams and the Lees stable – is the addition of blinkers. We have already seen how it has brought Valiant King to life and if it has the same effect on Changingoftheguard, it could upend quite a few exotics.
It is not for nothing that Lloyd Williams has won seven Melbourne Cups with Just A Dash (1981), What A Nuisance (1985), Efficient (2007), Green Moon (2012), Almandin (2016), Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020). He is as shrewd as they come.
Lees, too, is a horseman of repute. A son of Newcastle legend Max, one of the first horses to join Kris from Max was grand old stayer County Tyrone. Given some of Lees’ staying stock, a Melbourne Cup win at some point seems likely.
Changingoftheguard is a son of the late Galileo, who has been the world’s best staying stallion for the last two decades but who is yet to produce a Melbourne Cup winner. His sons have finished second three times (Tiger Moth in 2020, Johannes Vermeer in 2017 and Purple Moon in 2007) and third three times (Okita Soushi in 2024, Il Paradiso in 2019 and Mahler in 2007).
His dam Lady Lara was an American miler, winning a Grade 2 at Gulfstream Park for Parchment Party’s trainer Bill Mott.
So what to make of Changingoftheguard?
While The Metropolitan run can be forgiven, the way in which he weakened out in the Geelong Cup suggests that he will struggle to get into the finish. The blinkers on are a concern and he does look the likely leader from the outside gate. He also will get through a wet track.
Still, judging him on all available evidence, it’s hard to have him this year.
14. HALF YOURS (8)
5yo chestnut gelding, St Jean – La Gazelle (Desert King)
Trainer: Tony & Calvin McEvoy
Jockey: Jamie Melham
Last 10 starts: x211215141
Biggest win: 2025 G1 Caulfield Cup
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 11th
The pride of Australia, Half Yours is the only runner this year to have been foaled in the country.
In fact, he is aiming to become the first horse born in Victoria to win the Melbourne Cup since Gala Supreme in 1973. For perspective, New South Wales has had seven winners in the 52 years since; even Western Australia has had two winners since.
It’s only one year less than the last time a Tasmanian-bred horse, Piping Lane, won the race.
So Half Yours would be a real local Melbourne Cup triumph in a way that it hasn’t been in more than half a century – even if he is by an imported stallion, St Jean, who once upon a time looked like a Melbourne Cup contender himself.
Bred by Janice Thomson, the wife of the late Col McKenna, Half Yours was owned equally by McKenna and trainer Ciaron Maher – hence the name. When McKenna died last year, his stock was dispersed and father-son trainers Tony and Calvin McEvoy paid what seemed an exorbitant $305,000 to buy him through online sales platform Inglis Digital. Maher was the underbidder.
Now, that $305,000 looks a bargain as he has won 12 times that price in prizemoney. And if he wins the Melbourne Cup, that pot multiplies again.
Since joining the McEvoys, Half Yours has traversed the eastern seaboard. He won a lowly race at Seymour in April, went to Sydney where he won and was placed at Rosehill and then travelled up to Queensland where he smashed his rivals in the Listed Caloundra Cup (2400m) in July. It was that win that first suggested he could be a Cups candidate this year.
He returned to Rosehill for his first run of the spring over 1500m, finishing fifth (Valiant King was last in the same race), before earning his G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) spot by winning the G3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield.
A good run in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) here at Flemington proved he was on track for the Caulfield Cup and so it proved as he raced on by for a big win as the hot favourite. With that victory, Jamie Melham became the first woman to win the Caulfield Cup.
Now, he steps beyond 2400m for the first time in the Melbourne Cup. The trip holds few concerns, but whether it is just a bit too early in his career may be the slight query. A potential wet track is no concern either, as he has looked like a real swimmer any time he has lined up on soft or heavy ground.
Half Yours is a first Melbourne Cup runner for Calvin McEvoy, while his dad Tony has had three runners since 2001: second last (Requiem) and last (Sandmason) in 2002 and fifth (Hugs Dancer) in 2004. He did have the luckless The Hind in 1999, who was chopped out at a crucial stage in the straight.
Melham is looking to join Michelle Payne as a Melbourne Cup-winning rider, 10 years after Payne became the first woman to ride a Cup winner aboard Prince Of Penzance.
She has finished third twice, on Okita Soushi last year and Prince Of Arran in 2020, and she is confident of improving her best finish this year.
Melham and her husband Ben (Smokin’ Romans) will become the first married couple to ride in the Melbourne Cup. They are one of two couples in the race, with Celine Gaudray (Torranzino) and Ethan Brown (Middle Earth) the other.
Half Yours is likely to jump favourite but there is enough there to oppose him. Give him another 12 months and he will be a lovely Melbourne Cup candidate, but the Caulfield Cup looked his grand final and this might be a bridge too far at this stage of his career.
15. MORE FELONS (23)
7yo bay gelding, Churchill – Pivotalia (Pivotal)
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Last 10 starts: 50x12x0944
Biggest win: 2024 Listed Parramatta Cup
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 19th
Two years after his first Melbourne Cup run, More Felons returns for take two.
His owners, led by prolific investor Richard Pegum, would have been excited about getting a better barrier than the outside gate of 23 that he had in 2023.
Of course, he draws 23 once again – although with a full field, that means he will still have one horse drawn outside him this time.
You couldn’t write a more appropriate script; ironic, given his former name in the UK was Scriptwriter.
It all looked so promising for More Felons when he returned in the autumn of 2024. He came from last to win the Listed Parramatta Cup (1900m) before a strong second in the G1 Tancred Stakes (2400m), an effort that was set to see him start favourite for the G1 Sydney Cup (3200m).
However, he suffered a tendon injury in the days leading up to the race and was ruled out. It kept him on the sidelines for more than 12 months.
His first two runs were acceptable for a horse returning from a tendon injury. It was third-up, though, that he showed that the More Felons of old was within him and that he was still a force to be reckoned with.
More Felons came from near last to run fourth at 150/1, just a length and a quarter from Royal Supremacy. Given he was up in the weights comparatively, it was a strong performance.
On the back of that, he started second favourite in the ATC St Leger (2600m) at Randwick but he was ridden close to a slow pace and was unable to quicken to the same extent.
Presumably, from gate 23, Tommy Berry will ride him quietly and he will be given one chance to charge at them.
More Felons is another horse that will probably not want it too wet, soft rather than heavy. He would be better suited on top of the ground, though.
He is one of five runners for Chris Waller, widely considered Australia’s best conditioner of stayers – he’s certainly the most prolific, as proven by his strong Cup hand. Waller won the Melbourne Cup with Verry Elleegant in 2021 and a second victory is only a matter of time.
Taking the mount is Berry, who rode a double on Derby Day in preparation for Tuesday. This is his eighth ride; his closest finish was fourth on Trip To Paris a decade ago.
A colder ride will definitely suit him but a deteriorating track will not. The draw does make things awkward and it is hard to see him running to his Metropolitan effort here.
16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (6)
8yo bay or brown gelding, Dialed In – Sueno d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro)
Trainer: Brian Ellison
Jockey: Harry Coffey
Last 10 starts: 5735x840x1
Biggest win: 2025 G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 8th
Horses, like humans, sometimes just seem to thrive in different locations. They can develop into different beings entirely, removed from their past selves.
That seems to be the case with Onesmoothoperator, who just seems to love Australia. A middling handicapper in the UK, he has posted two impressive wins from three starts down under.
Even accounting for the class divide, he just looks like a healthy, happy horse here. He’s thriving, almost as much as his trainer Brian Ellison, who has become a regular visitor to the Melbourne spring carnival.
Last year, he won the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) in a canter before running on very late in the Melbourne Cup – his effort was better than suggested by the 12th on paper.
He returned to the UK and had one run on the all-weather track at Wolverhampton, running down the field, before heading out to Dubai where he was just fair in three starts. While the form around him was OK – the horse that beat him in the G3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy (2810m), Dubai Future, went on to shock some of the world’s leading stayers in the G2 Dubai Gold Cup (3200m) – he just didn’t look the same horse.
Back in the UK, he was carrying big weights and unable to find his best. But Ellison, planning a return to Melbourne, had also figured out how best to tackle these races.
Heading to Moonee Valley for the G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) last week after the Geelong Cup was delayed a day, he was ridden quietly by Mark Zahra before unleashing a tremendous burst around the field. And didn’t he unleash, demonstrating awesome acceleration to win by three-quarters of a length over Athabascan.
Such is his liking for Australia that his owners, Boyle Bloodstock, along with new partners including Melbourne Cup winners Kevin and Colleen Bamford, have decided that he will remain down under with former Singapore trainer Tim Fitzsimmons.
This may not be his last run for Ellison, though, who may take him to either the G2 Perth Cup (2400m) or the G1 Hong Kong Vase (2400m) before he returns to Fitzsimmons at Bendigo.
Harry Coffey takes just his third ride in the Cup, having finished no closer than 20 lengths from the winner at two rides to date. Coffey, who has cystic fibrosis, won the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) last year on Duke De Sessa and has three Group 1 wins to his name. He is particularly good in staying races and so it may be the beginning of a beautiful relationship.
Whether Onesmoothoperator will relish a wet track, though, is another question mark. The better side of soft should be fine for him, but if it deteriorates further, it becomes a concern.
When Onesmoothoperator was foaled in Indiana in 2018, few could have imagined the global journey on which he’d embark. There may still be a few chapters yet to be written. It would be a magical one if he could win the Melbourne Cup.
Expect him to be flying late. It may be too late to take the prize, but he can finish in the top half dozen.
17. FURTHUR (7)
4yo grey horse, Waldgeist – Danamight (Danetime)
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Michael Dee
Last 10 starts: -72×152516
Biggest win: 2025 G3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 18th
There is a nursery rhyme that comes from a poem written by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, the gist of which sums up Furthur perfectly: when he’s good, he’s very, very good but when he is bad, he is horrid.
Furthur has plenty of raw ability, but whether he will run to that level is another matter entirely.
The first European three-year-old to contest the race since Deauville Legend started favourite in 2022, finishing fourth, Furthur arrives having contested the G1 St Leger over approximately 2921m at Doncaster, the final classic of the British season.
He was just sixth there to Europe’s top three-year-old stayer Scandinavia, but if Scandinavia were in here at the bottom of the weights, he would have started favourite. If anything, he would have had a bigger boom around him than Jan Brueghel, who would have jumped favourite last year if not for his controversial withdrawal.
The formlines around Furthur’s best efforts are strong. He was in receipt of 9lb (4.08kg) from Epic Poet when beating him by three lengths in the G3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes over 2715m in August and Epic Poet’s global form through Byzantine Dream, Presage Nocturne, Rebel’s Romance and Trawlerman looks particularly good; he would have been a major player if he made the trip to Australia.
Furthur also had Scandinavia behind him at level weights in the G2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot (even though Scandinavia would turn the tables twice) while he was only a length and a half off the dual Derby winner Lambourn in the St Leger.
However, he was beaten 10 lengths by Lambourn in the G3 Chester Vase – a wide run around Chester’s tight turns perhaps a mitigating factor – and he was terrible after leading up in the G3 Bahrain Trophy.
In the end, comparisons will be made against previous European three-year-olds to win the race, Rekindling and Cross Counter. On raw figures, Furthur’s peak Timeform rating is 115 compared to 124+ for Cross Counter and 121 for Rekindling.
Cross Counter, like Furthur, carried 1kg above the limit while Rekindling carried 1.5kg above the limit. Context is important – without ratings for the entire field, it is only one piece of a puzzle – but it does suggest that Furthur is short of what is required here.
In his favour is that he showed a nice turn of foot in the Geoffrey Freer and if he can bring that sort of acceleration, he will be suited by the way that Australian races are run. He can still get a bit keen in his races so will be hoping for a decent enough tempo, but if he can switch off midfield, he has the tools to run into the finish.
Trainer Andrew Balding saddles up his first Melbourne Cup runner, although he has won a Group 1 at Flemington before: he prepared Side Glance to win the Mackinnon Stakes in 2013. Balding’s father Ian was a champion trainer best known for preparing the outstanding Mill Reef, while he also sent out 1996 Melbourne Cup seventh Grey Shot. Balding’s sister Clare is a renowned UK television personality who has recently starred on the BBC’s Celebrity Traitors.
Jockey Michael Dee has had some bad luck with the Melbourne Cup – his intended mount, Lunar Flare, missed the race twice as a leading chance – but the Kiwi rider is a terrific judge of stayers. Furthur loses nothing with Dee aboard.
Furthur will run in the colours of TV presenter and mounting yard expert Lizzie Jelfs. She bought into the horse alongside his original owners, the Merry Pranksters (led by Tattersalls’ Jason Singh) and she has done a good job already at taking people behind the scenes when it comes to owning a Melbourne Cup runner.
Furthur is from the second crop of German-bred Arc winner Waldgeist and is, to date, his best performer. His dam’s side is quite speedy, certainly not what you would expect from a Melbourne Cup contender, but it perhaps balances out some of the dourness seen so far from Waldgeist’s progeny.
There won’t be any issue about him seeing out two miles on what he’s shown so far and a wet track shouldn’t be any concern either. His two efforts on wet tracks have been fine, his sire was a swimmer and it shouldn’t be a reason to dismiss him.
It just appears that this is coming too soon for him and he is an unreliable prospect. Perhaps he is one for 12 months from now.
18. PARCHMENT PARTY (3)
5yo bay horse, Constitution – Life Well Lived (Tiznow)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: John Velazquez
Last 10 starts: 5x59231x1x
Biggest win: 2025 G3 Belmont Gold Cup
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 24th
It has been a long-held ambition for the Victoria Racing Club (VRC) to get an American-trained horse to Flemington for the Melbourne Cup – and that will finally be realised when Parchment Party lines up on the first Tuesday in November.
Horses like 1987 third Rosedale were in American hands until a couple of months before the Melbourne Cup (he transferred from one legend, Charlie Whittingham, to another in Bart Cummings) while American Grade 1 winners like Unusual Suspect, Sanagas and Winchester ran in the race for Australian trainers.
However, no horse has ever made the trip to run in Australia for an American trainer – not just in the Melbourne Cup but in any race.
That will change on Tuesday.
Parchment Party’s trainer Bill Mott, who was inducted into the American Racing Hall of Fame in 1998 aged 45, is a pioneer. He prepared the champion Cigar to win the inaugural G1 Dubai World Cup (2000m) at Nad al Sheba in 1996 and has prepared horses like Cody’s Wish, Drosselmeyer, Elite Power and Royal Delta. He has long been considered the best turf trainer in the United States, even as challengers like Chad Brown have emerged.
This year, Mott won his second G1 Kentucky Derby with Sovereignty, who went on to add the G1 Belmont Stakes and the G1 Travers Stakes. He would have started favourite in Saturday’s G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic, arguably the race of the year worldwide, but he was withdrawn due to a fever midweek.
In fact, Mott has been involved – however remotely – in a Melbourne Cup win before. He trained Theatrical to win the 1987 G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf and that horse would go on to sire 2002 Melbourne Cup winner Media Puzzle.
Still, to be listed as a trainer of a Melbourne Cup winner would take that association to new heights, particularly given the process that Parchment Party has had to go through to get to Melbourne. It involved him flying from New York to Brussels, being driven across to Newmarket in the UK, spending two weeks there before embarking on the trip to Melbourne.
Since his arrival, he has looked a picture of health. American horses really do catch the eye in the mornings and Parchment Party is no exception.
So what to make of his form?
Aside from two runs on turf in Florida earlier this year, where he got back over shorter trips and struggled to make ground around their tight turns, he has raced primarily on dirt.
He is the type to settle early before making a sweeping run, using the momentum that dirt affords to be able to sustain his effort over a long distance.
On turf, that ability to be able to sustain a run for that amount of time is exceptionally rare. Instead, he will need to be held together before being asked to sprint late – a characteristic that he doesn’t appear to possess.
He won his way into the Melbourne Cup by taking the G3 Belmont Gold Cup – he was listed as “main track only”, meaning that he was intending to scratch from the Saratoga turf race until torrential rain forced it to be moved to the main, or dirt, track. He took full advantage, scorching clear by eight and a half lengths over a shortened mile and six furlongs (approximately 2800m).
He backed up again subsequently to win the Birdstone Stakes over the same course and distance in August. It was less impressive but he did enough to win.
Now, he faces his toughest test yet. It would be an extraordinary result to see him win but, no matter how much the heart wants him to perform well, the head simply says it is not possible.
Taking the ride is John Velazquez, another American Racing Hall of Famer. The Puerto Rican jockey has won the Kentucky Derby three times among almost 7,000 career wins globally and has Group 1 wins to his name in Dubai and at Royal Ascot.
He won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Ted Noffey on Friday, unveiling the colt he hopes can give him a fourth Kentucky Derby.
The only time he has ridden in Australia, though, came in 2016 when he rode in three races at the Magic Millions meeting at the Gold Coast.
Velazquez is a world class jockey, the equal of any rider globally at his best, but not even his deft hand can help Parchment Party to sit and sprint like a top turf horse.
Jim and Dana Bernhard, whose Pin Oak Stud operation owns Parchment Party, deserve all the credit in the world for bringing him down under. I hope he proves me wrong and runs an almighty race. I believe a decent American stayer would be able to win the Melbourne Cup – their turf stayers are about the same level as Australian turf stayers – but I don’t think Parchment Party is that horse.
19. ATHABASCAN (1)
7yo bay gelding, Almanzor – Alzubra (Dansili)
Trainer: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton
Jockey: Declan Bates
Last 10 starts: 82959×0002
Biggest win: 2023 G3 Colin Stephen Quality
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 15th
Bred and initially raced in France, it is three years ago that Australians first got to see Athabascan when he stepped out in the G3 Rosehill Gold Cup (2000m) on Derby Day. He made up plenty of ground for fourth that day, suggesting that – in time – he could develop into a nice stayer down under.
Fast forward three years and he is lining up in the Melbourne Cup, having placed in both the Listed Canberra Cup (2000m) and the G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) during his time down under. Only a handful of horses have contested all three over the past 40 years, with Foxseal going closest in 1984 – winning the Canberra Cup, snaring third in the Sydney Cup and finishing fifth in the Melbourne Cup.
It is the same treble of races that were contested by his older half-brother Arapaho, but with greater success. Arapaho won both the Canberra Cup and the Sydney Cup and will be aiming to add the Melbourne Cup.
Athabascan’s belated Melbourne Cup debut comes 12 months after he was ruled out the day before the Cup due to a heart irregularity. While he has not won since, placings in the G3 N E Manion Cup (2400m) and the G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) suggest that he is in fine enough fettle, although it did take him a long time to find form this preparation.
Still, it’s quite the trek from the track at Lyon where he first made his racetrack debut.
Hopping aboard for the first time – at least on raceday – is Declan Bates, fresh off one of the wins of his career aboard his favourite mare Pride Of Jenni. He is as good as they come when it comes to staying riders and Athabascan loses nothing with him.
Trainers John O’Shea and Tom Charlton have their first joint runner in the Melbourne Cup, 12 months later than intended. O’Shea finished third with the mighty Hartnell in 2016 when he was head trainer of Godolphin’s Australian operation, while Charlton’s father Roger was set to saddle up one of the favourites Withhold in 2018 but he was withdrawn.
Whether the inside barrier is ideal or not remains to be seen. Often, the rail can deteriorate when it rains and so, if the rail is off, it might be the worst draw of all. However, he gets through wet ground and so, if Bates can manoeuvre off the rail and get cover in midfield, he will be fine.
Despite his return to form last time, it still appears as though he is in that second or third tier of stayers here in Australia. It is impossible to have him in front of Arapaho, for instance, given their head-to-head record.
He can run honestly but it is hard to see him troubling the placings.
20. GOODIE TWO SHOES (20)
7yo bay mare, Fastnet Rock – Fits Like A Glove (Galileo)
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Last 10 starts: 57x331113x
Biggest win: 2025 G3 Stanerra Stakes
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 20th
There are some famous sets of colours across the world that are instantly recognised by racing fans, no matter what.
There is the Godolphin blue, victorious with Cross Counter in 2018, and the Coolmore navy. There are the Sunday Racing colours, successful with Delta Blues in 2006, the late Aga Khan’s green and red and Juddmonte’s green, pink and white. When it comes to the Melbourne Cup, think Lloyd Williams’ navy, white armbands and white cap.
Irish businessman J P McManus, best known as the former owner of Manchester United alongside Coolmore supremo John Magnier, has one such set: his green and yellow hoops with a white cap.
His silks are most synonymous with National Hunt (or jumps) racing, especially the Cheltenham Festival where they have been carried to success more than 80 times, while his horses have won the Grand National at Aintree three times.
They are seen far less frequently on the flat and have never appeared before in Australia, so the presence of Goodie Two Shoes adds a little bit of interest from that perspective. Throw in that she’s trained by 32-year-old Joseph O’Brien – already a two-time Melbourne Cup-winning trainer – and there’s no doubt that she will have her fair share of supporters.
By an Australian sire, the late speedster Fastnet Rock, Goodie Two Shoes was bred by McManus’ wife Noreen. She is closely related to Epsom Derby winner Authorized, who has sired three horses to finish in the top four in the Melbourne Cup – Hartnell (3rd, 2016), Signoff (4th, 2014) and Ashrun (4th, 2023) – but has never had the winner.
Earlier this year, it would have seemed unfathomable that Goodie Two Shoes would make it to a Melbourne Cup. She was racing in mares’ steeplechases in Ireland – and while hurdlers have made it to the race on many occasions, Goodie Two Shoes would likely be the first chaser to run in the Cup.
It was on the flat, though, that she made her mark in Ireland this year. She won two stakes races over 2800m against mares, a Listed race at Gowran Park by six lengths and a Group 3 at Fairyhouse by a half-length.
In between – and perhaps most intriguingly – she won the Listed His Majesty’s Plate over two miles at Down Royal in Northern Ireland. Past winners of the race include Melbourne Cup winner Twilight Payment and horses like Downdraft and Master Of Reality, who performed well for O’Brien in Australia.
Runner-up La Isla Mujeres provides a fairly consistent benchmark, while third Dallas Star is mercurial but has placings behind horses like Kyprios this year.
Last time out, Goodie Two Shoes weakened into third behind runaway winner Waardah in the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood. It was only a little bit short of her best ratings, but the softer ground underfoot seemed to blunt her slightly.
She will likely race handy and attempt to challenge at the top of the straight. Whether she has the acceleration required for a Melbourne Cup is another matter entirely.
O’Brien’s exploits are well known but Wayne Lordan also creates interest, especially after landing his first Epsom Derby earlier this year on Lambourn. His first ride in the Melbourne Cup was controversial when he, Colm O’Donoghue and Johnny Murtagh set a blistering tempo in 2008 on three horses trained by O’Brien’s father Aidan.
Lordan returned for two further rides in 2018 (fifth, Rostropovich) and 2019 (third, Il Paradiso) while his most recent intended ride, Point Nepean, was withdrawn in 2022.
If it stays dry, she could finish in the top half dozen. Every millimetre of rain decreases her chances, though. Looking at the forecast, she will need a miracle.
21. RIVER OF STARS (14)
7yo bay mare, Sea The Stars – Amazone (Adlerflug)
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Beau Mertens
Last 10 starts: 42x73x7802
Biggest win: 2024 G3 Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 3rd
If you had asked me in May who I would back for the Melbourne Cup six months out, it would have been River Of Stars.
Her G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) effort, where she chased a record-setting tempo and kept finding, was a terrific performance at just her second Australian run. It was an outing that put her forward as a potential Cup contender, even if Sydney Cup form rarely translates to the Melbourne Cup.
Come the spring, River Of Stars’ first three runs were uninspiring and she had dropped off the radar somewhat. She was sent out as the longest-priced runner in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) at $91, but never shirked her task and ran second – easily the best of those who had settled handy. It was an ideal effort that will serve as a great springboard into the Melbourne Cup.
When she got up to staying trips in the UK, she was a remarkably consistent mare who rarely ran a bad race. Her runs in the Sydney Cup and the Caulfield Cup suggest she will be a similar type here.
In a Melbourne Cup lacking much speed, she has the ability to settle handy from gate 14 and she will likely be the first to challenge early in the straight. It will be about whether she can hold off those making late bids.
She is one of five runners for Chris Waller, widely considered Australia’s best conditioner of stayers – he’s certainly the most prolific, as proven by his strong Cup hand. Waller won the Melbourne Cup with Verry Elleegant in 2021 and a second victory is only a matter of time.
Taking the ride is Beau Mertens, who rode River Of Stars a treat in the Caulfield Cup. It is his third Cup mount and his second for Waller, having finished third at 150/1 on Sheraz in 2023.
River Of Stars won’t be 150/1 this time around. She will have her supporters and justifiably so. A soft track holds no concerns and the race shape looks to suit her more than any other horse in the race.
She is a big chance of giving Yulong Investments and its principal, Chinese billionaire Zhang Yuesheng, a first Melbourne Cup success.
22. ROYAL SUPREMACY (21)
5yo bay gelding, Make Believe – Adelasia (Iffraaj)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Last 10 starts: 32×0011215
Biggest win: 2025 G1 The Metropolitan
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 6th
It may not have seemed it at the time, but Knight’s Choice’s shock Melbourne Cup win last year was exactly what the race needed.
Knight’s Choice returned to Flemington the following Saturday where the crowd had the chance to salute their Cup hero, while Robbie Dolan has been one of the great Melbourne Cup-winning jockeys in the way that he has carried that story forward throughout the year.
The “singing jockey” is a novelty that could easily wear off after a while, but Dolan has mixed music with his affable nature that has made him one of the more easily identifiable Melbourne Cup-winning riders – especially outside of racing circles – in recent years. He has been a promoter’s dream.
And so, with Knight’s Choice ruled out of defending his title, Dolan was forced to look elsewhere. The Irish jockey had found his horse in Royal Supremacy – but first, he had to sweat it out to confirm his place for the race. In the end, he was the 24th and last horse to gain a spot.
There has always been a bit of hype around Royal Supremacy, ever since he finished second in the G2 Italian Derby (2200m) and third to one of the world’s best horses Calandagan in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes (approximately 2400m) at Royal Ascot last year.
Purchased by Australian Bloodstock – owners of 2014 winner Protectionist and 2022 victor Gold Trip – Royal Supremacy did not race between July last year and May this year, when he made his first Australian start in the Listed Scone Cup (1600m).
His first two runs in NSW were nothing special but he found form at start three to land a restricted handicap over 1800m at Randwick. He followed that up with a comfortable success in the Wyong Cup Prelude (2000m) on the NSW Central Coast, importantly on a heavy track.
Royal Supremacy did not race again until the G3 Newcastle Gold Cup (2300m), finishing second, but he was able to parlay that into a strong success under Dolan in the G1 The Metropolitan (2400m). He had More Felons (fourth), Vauban (fifth), Athabascan (14th), Arapaho (15th) and Changingoftheguard (18th) behind him that day.
Dolan stuck solid into the Caulfield Cup. He was restless in the gates and missed the start slightly, ending up further back than the rider would have wanted, and then he overraced in the middle stages. He was awkward on the Caulfield bend and looked like he was going to weaken out, but he found again through the line and finished a respectable fifth.
Getting to Flemington will suit and soft ground should also be to his liking. His pedigree doesn’t scream two-miler, although he is a sibling to jumps horses, but if he can settle mid-race there is no reason he shouldn’t see out the trip.
History is against him slightly, though. No horse has won The Metropolitan and the Melbourne Cup double since Macdougal in 1959.
In his corner is Ciaron Maher, who already combined with Australian Bloodstock to win a Melbourne Cup with Gold Trip in 2022. Maher is renowned for his ability with stayers and Royal Supremacy has been a 12-month project, much like Gold Trip, that is beginning to bear fruit.
Royal Supremacy will likely be in the mix somewhere. From the wide gate, Dolan will likely take him back and try to find cover. If he can end up in the three-wide line with cover, he should be in the right position to improve into the race from the 600m.
He’s not without winning claims.
23. TORRANZINO (18)
6yo bay gelding, Tarzino – Goldilicious (Helmet)
Trainer: Paul Preusker
Jockey: Celine Gaudray
Last 10 starts: 4212×80821
Biggest win: 2025 G3 Geelong Cup
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 9th
Every year, there is a horse representing the “battlers” – maybe not like there once was, which was one of many reasons the Melbourne Cup found a place in Australian folklore, but there are still the smaller stables and owners taking on the leviathans of the world.
Last year, Knight’s Choice proved that the battlers still had their chance – although Sheila Laxon had already won a Cup and managing owner Cam Bain is a mining executive so perhaps not the stereotypical battlers – while in recent decades, one of the best stories came when Darwin schoolteacher Wendy Green took the Cup with Rogan Josh.
This year, Torranzino is that horse for Horsham trainer Paul Preusker. Not that Preusker is a small trainer by any means – he has almost 100 horses to his name and finished fifth in the 2019 Melbourne Cup with Surprise Baby. That same horse started favourite in 2020.
Compared to the Mahers, the Wallers, the O’Briens and the Mullins, though, he is a small fish.
He will also be ridden by Celine Gaudray at her Melbourne Cup debut. The 24-year-old has never won a Group 1, although she’s been placed twice, but she has ridden Torranzino seven times over the past year for three wins and three seconds.
Gaudray’s partner Ethan Brown rides Middle Earth, making them one of two couples in the race; Jamie Melham (Half Yours) and husband Ben (Smokin’ Romans) are the other.
Torranzino is also owned by a large group of small share owners who will get to have the experience of a lifetime on Tuesday, no matter how he performs.
When Torranzino weakened out to ninth in a lowly restricted race at Murray Bridge in South Australia in July last year, the thought that he could potentially make it to a Melbourne Cup must have been the furthest thing from the minds of Preusker or his owners.
It had already seemed unlikely when he was out of the placings in maidens at Casterton or even when he was winning a maiden at Warracknabeal, but horses just don’t progress from defeats in races like that Murray Bridge event and make it to the Melbourne Cup.
Weeks later, though, he was a surprise winner over 1500m in Melbourne and he continued to step up, culminating in a narrow defeat in the Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final (1600m) on Oaks Day and a win in the Country Cup (2000m) at Caulfield later in November.
Maybe a Melbourne Cup dream wasn’t so unlikely after all.
A win in the G3 Easter Cup (2000m) at Caulfield in April and a second, from last, to Smokin’ Romans in the Listed Warrnambool Cup (2350m) suggested he had a bright staying future.
He was just fair in three starts back this preparation before he stuck on well for second behind a rampant Valiant King in the G3 Bart Cummings (2500m) and then earned his Melbourne Cup berth by running down Gilded Water – owned by King Charles III – in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m).
The dream was well and truly alive.
Torranzino is the first son of a Victoria Derby winner to run in the Melbourne Cup in 12 years; Ethiopia, a son of 2002 winner Helenus, ran seventh in 2013. Torranzino’s sire Tarzino won the Derby a decade ago and has produced some nice staying types, although never a Cup runner.
Going back through Torranzino’s pedigree, he is related to some two-mile performers like Showcause and Zacada. Really, he should have no issues out in trip.
A wet track also should be fine for him, although it may expose any stamina issues. And while he has often been ridden quietly, it wouldn’t surprise to see Gaudray take advantage of the light weight to push forward from barrier 18.
A Torranzino win would reframe the way in which the Cup is viewed, taking it back to the Melbourne Cup of the 1980s where it was won by these stout locals. I don’t think he will be winning, but he’s one that I will be including in exotics to finish on the bottom end of the placings.
24. VALIANT KING (10)
6yo grey gelding, Roaring Lion – Assembly (Candy Ride)
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Last 10 starts: 0x0693x013
Biggest win: 2025 G3 The Bart Cummings
Andrew Hawkins’ prediction: 2nd
Last year, I ended my write-up of Valiant King with this line: One can only have so many horses on side and he is one who I have to oppose this year. Don’t be surprised if, come November 2025, he’s found his way into my top four.
Fast forward 11 months to the start of October and I would have been gobsmacked if he ended up in my top four.
He ran fairly in last year’s Melbourne Cup for 13th but Onesmoothoperator ran home better in the concluding stages.
In a four-start campaign in Sydney in the autumn, Valiant King’s best result on paper was a distant third in the G2 Chairman’s Handicap over 2600m but his effort when midfield in the G3 N E Manion Cup (2400m), when back and wide all the way, was solid too. He was ruled out of the Sydney Cup due to a sore foot.
At his first run in the spring, he was out the back and never got into the race over 1500m at Rosehill. It was a run to ignore but, given he had not been seen again by the start of October, he was completely off the radar as far as Melbourne Cup contenders went.
And then came the G3 Bart Cummings over the Flemington 2500m, a win and you’re in race for the Melbourne Cup.
Valiant King was ignored by the market, sent out at 60-1, and was given little hope of securing the spot. Instead, Gilded Water – owned by King Charles III – was expected to take the position.
However, Gilded Water ran away under Jamie Melham and created a frantic tempo, one which he remarkably sustained until the 100 metres.
Scorching down the centre of the track, looking like the reincarnation of Phar Lap, was Valiant King. He raced past at the 100m and went on by to win by almost three lengths.
Where had this Valiant King come from?
The answer likely lies in first-time blinkers that had been applied in the Bart Cummings. Blinkers, which limit peripheral vision and improve focus, have been known to switch some horses on but this was a brand new Valiant King.
Importantly, was it a fluke?
A tremendous Caulfield Cup effort from last, flashing home to finish third, suggests it wasn’t. He saved ground but sprinted sharply, even after being held up, and proved that the new, improved Valiant King was here to stay.
Valiant King is one of two sons of Roaring Lion in the field – quite amazing given he’s only had 78 runners globally and he died in New Zealand in 2019 after serving his first book of mares in the UK that year. He is a great loss for the breeding industry.
While one wouldn’t automatically think of Roaring Lion as producing stayers, there is stamina on Valiant King’s dam’s side and based on his effort last year, it’s hard to think of the trip as an issue.
He is one of five runners for Chris Waller, widely considered Australia’s best conditioner of stayers – he’s certainly the most prolific, as proven by his strong Cup hand. Waller won the Melbourne Cup with Verry Elleegant in 2021 and a second victory is only a matter of time.
Valiant King also gets the services of Jye McNeil, who produced one of the great Cup rides to win on Twilight Payment in 2020. Whereas he led from the outset on Twilight Payment, he will need to come from near last on Valiant King.
A wet track is of little concern and he is certainly the lightly weighted form horse this year.
In my personal rankings, he rocketed up to second after he won the Bart Cummings, assuming top place once Sir Delius was ruled out. He has remained in first place until the last couple of days, when Presage Nocturne has taken his place at the top. However, I will be ensuring that both Presage Nocturne and Valiant King are winning results.
They are a clear top two and if the new Valiant King shows up at Flemington, racegoers may be in for a spectacle.
Summary
This year’s Melbourne Cup is really going to come down to how much rain arrives. It doesn’t look as bad now as it did a few days ago, when it looked as though it might be torrential, but there should still be a decent amount of rain before the meeting. If it gets time to dry out, though, it may not even be that rain-affected.
So the “greys in the wet” adage may not apply but, either way, it was going to be a pair of greys on top for me. It was just a matter of which one would be on top. In the end, PRESAGE NOCTURNE is more adaptable ground-wise than VALIANT KING but both are strong chances and the quinella may be the play.
Presage Nocturne produced a terrific Cup trial in the Caulfield Cup, making ground late after being held up on the circle, and he’s more of a staying type. He possesses similar formlines to Americain and Dunaden before they won for France and any rain will be a plus for him.
Valiant King is absolutely flying with the blinkers on – he’s a different horse completely. He proved his Bart Cummings win was no fluke in the Caulfield Cup and I expect him to run up to that level again. Whether he’s a legitimate two-miler remains to be seen but on form he is right in this.
RIVER OF STARS has had the perfect grounding for the Melbourne Cup and will be somewhere around the mark, while AL RIFFA and BUCKAROO are the class horses but both have the weight of history against them. ROYAL SUPREMACY next best from ARAPAHO.
Selections
#6 PRESAGE NOCTURNE
#24 Valiant King
#21 River Of Stars
#1 Al Riffa
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