2025 Tokyo Yushun Power Rankings, May 1

This year’s G1 Tokyo Yushun picture gained some clarity after the events of the past two weekends, firstly with the running of the opening colt’s classic, the G1 Satsuki Sho over 2000m at Nakayama, and latterly with the latest of the big trial races, the G2 Aoba Sho over the Derby course and distance of 2400m at Tokyo.

Museum Mile took out the Satsuki Sho under Joao Moreira, while Energico came out best in a close finish to the Aoba Sho. We’ll find out on June 1 if either has the class to join stars like Deep Impact, Special Week, King Kamehameha, Orfevre, Contrail and Do Deuce as a Tokyo Yushun winner.

For now, our Tokyo Yushun Power Rankings provide a guide based on how highly our panel of Japan racing experts rates their chances of victory. At relevant points leading into the big race, our experts each rank the emerging Derby contenders one to 18. Their individual lists are used to calculate a top 18, in order. The experts will continue to track the horses and update lists at key times. 

1. Croix Du Nord

Croix Du Nord retains his top ranking despite defeat in the Satsuki Sho. He emerged as the pick of Japan’s 2024 juvenile crop when he won the G1 Hopeful Stakes over 2000m on December 28 and the form of that race looked good going into the first classic. That held true even though Croix Du Nord, the Satsuki Sho’s 1.5 favourite, was beaten into second place, ending his perfect record. The colt was rushed to press the lead on the home turn in an exposed four-wide berth, hit the front with the climbing Nakayama final furlong ahead of him, peaked on his effort, and was run down by the deeper-closing Museum Mile. Two horses in the last 15 years have won the Derby after placing second in the Satsuki Sho: Tastiera in 2023 and Makahiki in 2016.

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2. Masquerade Ball

A strong-closing run to finish third in the Satsuki Sho sees Masquerade Ball leap a few spots in the rankings. That means the colt’s only poor run in five starts came when 11th behind Croix Du Nord in the Hopeful Stakes in December, and being a half-brother to the G1-placed mare Masked Diva, with three wins on the board, he is certainly looking like a serious protagonist. Since 2010, Do Deuce, Deep Brillante and Eishin Flash all won the Tokyo Yushun after placing third in the Satsuki Sho.

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3. Museum Mile

The Sunday Racing colt was at the foot of the rankings after his fourth in the G2 Deep Impact Kinen in March, but he has shot up following his classy win in the Satsuki Sho. That confirmed the quality he had shown as a juvenile when second to Admire Zoom in the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity over a mile in December. He had previously broken his maiden second-up over 1800m and then scored over 2000m in the Kigiku Sho at Kyoto in November. His Deep Impact Kinen defeat came after a three-month break, he was caught flat-footed 600m out, had to make wide progress, was bumped coming off turn and kept on. Only the very best colts follow a Satsuki Sho win with Derby glory and to do that he must measure up to the likes of Contrail, Duramente, and Orfevre in recent times.

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4. Satono Shining

Satono Shining was second pick in the Satsuki Sho market but managed only fifth. The colt raced on the outer of midfield, was asked to work on the turn and then kept on solidly but without much dash as Museum Mile, Masquerade Ball and Giovanni all went past him. That was only his fourth start, having won his ‘Newcomer’ nicely as a juvenile, followed by a fine second in a Group 2 next start behind Croix Du Nord. He was impressive when a three-length winner of the G3 Kisaragi Sho in February, defeating among others the Asahi Hai Futurity third Lance Of Chaos.

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5. Fandom

A winner of all three starts to date, only one of our experts – Masanobu Takahashi – had him in their initial rankings list. After sweeping to a sensational victory in the G3 Mainichi Hai (1800m), though, he emerged as a big contender for the Tokyo Yushun. He missed the Satsuki Sho to point straight to the Derby and he will aim to emulate Shahryar in 2021 and Kizuna in 2013 as the most recent Mainichi Hai winners to land the Derby.

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6. Energico

Another climber, up 10 places, is Energico after his win in the G2 Aoba Sho last weekend. That gives him a three from three record and showed that he is improving each time he steps out. After a comfortable second win, he needed to work harder up in grade. The winning margin was short in a multi-horse challenge that had barely a length covering the first five, but the way he quickened from second-last at the top of the straight suggested he has the quality to be a contender. That win also meant he’s done it at the Derby course and distance, but an area of doubt is whether he will have the maturity and experience to mix it with horses already tested at Group 1 level.

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7. Giovanni

Satono Shining’s stablemate Giovanni is one of the more experienced Derby prospects with a pair of wins either side of three second place runs, followed by a running-on fourth in the Satsuki Sho. His prior defeats came behind Eri King in the Nojigiku Stakes and the G3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes, and then he led the chase behind Croix Du Nord in the G1 Hopeful Stakes. He started 2025 with a Listed win over 2000m and after his Satsuki Sho effort he still looks a solid Derby type without giving the impression he will be top of the class.

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8. Eri King

Eri King drops five places after losing his unbeaten status in the Satsuki Sho. His previous form measured up closely to Croix Du Nord through the Hopeful Stakes runner-up Giovanni who he beat twice, as mentioned above. The son of Australian G1 winner Youngstar was first-up for the year in the Satsuki Sho and had a rough passage to the first turn, which lit him up. After settling mid-pack on the rail, he was shuffled back as the race shape shifted down the back stretch, and was tight for room in the home straight before making minor progress to finish 11th. He’s likely better than that, but in the last 15 years, the only horse to have come out of a similar Satsuki Sho defeat to win the Derby was Wagnerian, who was beaten by a similar margin when seventh in the first classic.

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9. Feiern Kranz

A springer into the Derby rankings after a close second behind Energico in the G2 Aoba Sho at the course and distance. The Sunday Racing colt won on debut and has since been on the fringes of his generation’s best form lines including third to Magic Sands in the G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes and fourth to Croix Du Nord in the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai as a juvenile. His one win from six does not look anything like a Tokyo Yushun-winning profile but he is worthy of a place in the line-up.

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10. King Squall

A colt with plenty of upside, King Squall went into the Satsuki Sho with only two runs to his name and was not disgraced in running a sound seventh. The hope must be that he will find improvement for that experience, which he will need if he is to get among the leading protagonists at Tokyo in a month’s time. His debut win at Sapporo in July last year was smart and the fact that he was favourite for his first-up third this year in the G2 Spring Stakes before going into the first classic suggests he is well-regarded by the Yoshito Yahagi stable.

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11. Toppi Born

With only three runs on the board for two wins, all below pattern grade, Toppi Born is something of an enigmatic wild card in the rankings. But the manner of his latest success has prompted several experts to suggest the Tokyo Yushun could be within his scope. The colt was well adrift at the tail of the field in the early part of his recent Allowance race win at Hanshin yet scooted around his rivals and surged clear for an easy four-length score under the legendary Yutaka Take. Toppi Born clocked an incredible 1:57.9 for the 2000m, the fastest ever by a three-year-old at the course and distance. The Derby is a whole different level, and his propensity to drop himself out is a concern, but there is no doubting he would be an exciting contender. He is expected to test his credentials in the G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai on May 10.

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12. Kalamatianos

Took three attempts to break his maiden and that came at 1800m, but followed up at start four with a closing win by a neck in the Koyamaki Sho at a mile. Closed again to finish second behind Masquerade Ball in the G3 Kyodo Tsushin Hai at 1800m on February 16 before placing 10th in the Satsuki Sho.

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13. Lila Emblem

The progress of others in Lila Emblem’s absence sees the Kizuna colt slide down the rankings. After winning his Newcomer at Kyoto in late October, Lila Emblem wasn’t seen again until the G3 Shinzan Kinen at Chukyo on January 13. He didn’t disappoint, though, winning by two and a half lengths from the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes fifth Arte Veloce. He was sent out as an even-money favourite for the G3 Mainichi Hai at the end of March, but found little and disappointed in seventh.

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14. Piko Chan Black

Piko Chan Black’s Derby appeal took a knock with his last-place finish in the Satsuki Sho. He gave his young trainer his first Graded Stakes win in the G2 Spring Stakes in mid-March but after leading the field in the Satsuki Sho he was cooked by the home turn and faded out. He previously had smashed his rivals with a seven-length Newcomer win at Fukushima last July, placed second to Masquerade Ball in the Listed Ivy Stakes, then struggled in the Hopeful Stakes. 

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15. Faust Rasen

Another colt that has sunk in the rankings after a moderate showing in the Satsuki Sho. That 15th in the classic was disappointing after his G2 Deep Impact Kinen over 2000m at Nakayama in early March, at odds of 16.9, which in turn had followed a good third to Croix Du Nord in the G1 Hopeful stakes at massive odds of 303.3.

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16. G T Adamant

Raced prominently but faded out to finish 14th in the Satsuki Sho at just his third career start. Debuted in January with a  two-length Newcomer win over 2000m at Chukyo; followed that with a good win in the Listed Sumire Stakes over 2200m at Hanshin at the start of March, in which he had Feiern Kranz third.

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17. Magic Sands

Magic Sands seems to be taking the G1 NHK Mile Cup route following his sixth first-up for the year in the Satsuki Sho (2000m), in which he clocked the quickest final three furlongs with a time of 33.8s. That doesn’t mean he won’t take the Tokyo Yushun path but it is not the most conventional way to get to the Derby these days, with the mile race being on May 11. The Kizuna colt won his first two as a juvenile, including the G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes in August but flopped when 16th behind Croix Du Nord in the Hopeful Stakes in December.

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18. Admire Zoom

Last year’s G1 Asahi Hai Futurity winner is another heading to the NHK Mile Cup after connections opted to skip the Satsuki Sho. That being so, there’s a chance he might duck the Tokyo Yushun as well, but at this stage, his obvious class means he has to be in the power rankings. He blotted his copybook a little when a neck second at short odds in the G2 New Zealand Trophy over a mile on April 12. Then again, he can be forgiven that run after doing it tough, pressing the pace four-wide without cover on the final turn, then tiring and being caught close home. Deep Sky was the last horse to take the NHK Mile route and win the Tokyo Yushun: that was in 2008 and he won both races, which were on the exact same dates as this year, May 11 and June 1. ∎

Idol Horse Expert Panel: David Morgan, Andrew Hawkins, Jack Dawling, Shuhei Uwabo, Masanobu Takahashi and Frank Chang.