If Ka Ying Rising wins a second Everest on Saturday, it won’t take long for people to ask what his next overseas target will be, with Royal Ascot top of the list.
My answer to that is to ask “why would he?” David Hayes has already told Idol Horse that a trip to England is “a possibility but it’s probably unlikely”, and that if there was no Everest, Ascot would be “an absolute no-brainer.” He even said, “I’ve got a top hat and tails, I’d love to do it.” But there is an Everest, and as David put it, “the horse is from Australia and so am I, so I’ll always give The Everest priority.” Royal Ascot is in June, so he would have to come home, have his break and then be ready again for the mi of October. It isn’t realistic.
He is likely to stick to the same eight-race per season schedule that has worked so far, and as David said, “We’re copy and pasting last season.” Why would you change it? David said on Monday he thinks the horse is “10 per cent better than last year.”
With a sprinter, longevity is the key, because what they do takes its toll. Black Caviar had 25 starts, Lord Kanaloa had 19 and Vain had 14. Silent Witness made it to 29, but he won 18 of his first 20 and none of the last nine. Ka Ying Rising has had 24 starts, and he’s in his prime right now. If he were mine, I’d want to keep him racing for as long as possible.
I’ve seen so many horses travel and come back different. After Silent Witness won the Sprinters Stakes in Japan, Tony Cruz told Idol Horse he came home from that trip a different-looking horse. He never won again.
As David says himself, every time you travel, it’s a risk. He also said that when you get a freak like this in your life, you’ll do anything that doesn’t put any risk on them. I agree completely.
Travelling never bothered Romantic Warrior, which tells you how remarkable he was, but Silent Witness was every bit as good and overseas travel ruined his career. You’ve got one it hasn’t hurt and one it has.
Then there’s the money. Running second to Ka Ying Rising in the Hong Kong Sprint pays HK5.88m – more than the King Charles III Stakes winner gets and about the same as the Jubilee winner. Even fourth in the Hong Kong Sprint pays more than second in the King Charles III. The four Group 1s on Hong Kong International Races day were worth HK$130 million last year, which is more than all 35 races at Royal Ascot put together.
Look at Helios Express. He has won more than HK$50 million without leaving Sha Tin, and he has never won a Group 1. He has run second in five Group 1s, and every single time it was Ka Ying Rising in front of him. Nothing in Hong Kong can beat Ka Ying Rising this season, and there is so much money for him to win at home.
So why would you take him to England at the wrong time of year, for less money, when he needs the rest?
If the rest of the world wants to see the best sprinters take each other on, the answer is simple: come to Hong Kong in December. The problem is they’re all too scared to bring them.
Not Every Good Horse Goes On The Wet
If there is a wet track in Sydney on Saturday, it will be Ka Ying Rising’s greatest challenge yet. I don’t often call horses champions, because the word gets used far too loosely, but I was calling this horse one before anyone else. He’s one of my favourite horses and one of the greatest I’ve seen race. Even so, if it’s a heavy track, I think he’s beatable.
Not every great horse handles wet ground, and I found that out on Let’s Elope when she ran 10th of 12 on a wet track at Caulfield. She couldn’t go a yard. At her next four starts she won the Turnbull Stakes, the Caulfield Cup, the Mackinnon Stakes and the Melbourne Cup, all on fast tracks.
Ka Ying Rising’s key rival Tempted loves it wet, and as I said after his trial last week, I’m not convinced Ka Ying Rising does. He has never raced on a heavy track. Hayes said on Monday that he watched him win a trial on very heavy ground in Australia before he bought him. “It was only a trial, but he looked pretty good to me,” he said.
David is one of the world’s greatest optimists, and that’s fantastic for racing. But a trial isn’t a race, and even David admits they would be less confident if it was wet.
If it’s wet and he wins by two or three lengths, I won’t be surprised, because he’s that good. If Tempted beats him, that won’t surprise me either.
Luke Nolen Did Nothing Wrong On Sheza Alibi
I find the criticism of Luke Nolen’s ride on Sheza Alibi in last weekend’s Might And Power very unfair. The people knocking him don’t understand how you ride big races.
It was a six-horse field and on paper there wasn’t much pace in it. Sheza Alibi was going from a mile to 2000 metres for the first time, and that’s in the back of your mind. In a small field all you want to do is concentrate on the horse to beat, and if there was one, it was Birdman. Luke followed him.
When Land Legend and Kingswood got away out in front, you let them go, because you think they’re going to stop – the sectional times suggested they were going too fast. Nothing in their form suggested they would keep going. This wasn’t like Pride Of Jenni in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in 2024, when she got away to a massive lead and nobody goes after her, that’s the jockeys’ fault, because you know from her form that there is a chance she can keep going. That was just silly – but this was different.
Land Legend went fast enough to break the course record. He ran seven straight 200-metre sections under 12 seconds, and with 1000 metres to go Sheza Alibi was nearly two seconds behind him (about 11 lengths). She ran her last 1000 metres in 57.74 and her last 600 in 35.34, and she was beaten a short head.
If Luke had ridden her closer and chased the leaders, maybe she doesn’t finish off the way she did, and she has one hell of a hard run. He did absolutely nothing wrong, and if he had, I’d say so.
What I would question is why she was in the race at all. Her main target this spring is the A$10 million Golden Eagle over 1500 metres at Randwick on October 31. Peter Moody took her from a mile up to 2000 metres, and now she has to come back to 1500 metres three weeks later. I’m not a trainer, but anyone would tell you that isn’t an ideal preparation.
They clearly thought they would get an easy race with no pace, and it backfired. Moody said himself it was “probably a harder run than I wanted.” She’s still odds-on in pre-post markets for the Golden Eagle, and if she reproduces her best she just wins, because she’s that good. But last Saturday’s race has probably taken a bit out of her, and there has to be a query on her now.
A Sha Tin Trophy Full Of Questions
Monday’s G2 Sha Tin Trophy is a fantastic race and one of the key lead-up races to December’s G1 Hong Kong Mile. Remember it’s a handicap, though, and on International Day they meet at level weights, so you have to factor that into the form.
Voyage Bubble has never won first-up in five attempts and he has 135 pounds. I’d like to see how he goes. My Wish has won first-up in each of the last two seasons, but he’s up in the weights with 131 pounds – last year he won this race with bottom weight of 115.
The 2026 Derby winner Invincible Ibis has done nothing wrong. His first-up win at Group 3 level was good, the mile suits him and he’ll get back and run on. Some horses go well first-up and not as well second-up, but in his two seasons so far his second-up run has been as good as his first, if not better.
The horse with a lot on the line is Sky Jewellery. He’s seven pounds out of the handicap – which means that by rating he should be carrying 108lbs, but will carry the Hong Kong racing minimum of 115lb. He is very talented, and he’s the new horse on the scene for these races now that he finally has the rating. It has taken a long time to get here – he was one of the leading contenders for last season’s Four-Year-Old Classic Series before setbacks ruled him out, but he has returned with some strong performances. This is his test. If he can’t do it with 115lbs and a weight advantage on all these horses, how is he going to do it on level weights on International Day?
Helios Express will be interesting back at a mile, the distance he won the Classic Mile over in 2024. His run over 1400 metres the other day was all right without being great, but he carried 135 pounds and had to give Invincible Ibis eight pounds. This time they meet at level weights. He normally trials poorly too, so don’t read much into those. Stormy Grove ran very well first-up over 1400 metres, which was too short for him, and the mile will help.
It’s a great race with a lot of chances that will tell us a lot about who the leading contenders will be for the G1 Hong Kong Mile on December 13.
But the one that might beat them all on International Day is at home resting in his box: Galaxy Patch. Brett Crawford has opted against running on Monday, in favour of keeping his horse fresh for the G2 Jockey Club Mile on November 22 and then main target in December. That move could pay off. ∎
