Yes, Little Paradise was impressive. Yes, he should be Derby favourite. But before we get too carried away, I want to see him do it again under different circumstances – because the 2026 Hong Kong Classic Mile set up perfectly for him and the BMW Hong Kong Derby might not.
I heard someone say, “Imagine how far he would have won by if he’d got out earlier.” I disagree. Being held up for as long as he was actually helped him – he got out at exactly the right time.
People have to understand the difference between a horse that can sustain a run and a horse that can sprint. In a genuinely fast-run mile like Sunday was, it’s very hard to come wide and make a long, sustained move around the turn. You’re working the whole time, and once you’re working, you can’t keep it going for 600–700 metres. Horses just don’t do it.
Little Paradise didn’t have to sustain a long run. He only had to quicken for the last 150–200 metres when the gap finally came. That’s why he looked so sharp – because the race was set up for a horse who could sit, save and then quicken when the gap opened.
Look at the horses who hit the line well: they were the ones midfield or worse, doing no work and with cover. Little Paradise was one-off the fence with cover. Infinite Resolve had a soft enough passage near the right spot. Beauty Bolt was outside the leader in a strong-run race, under pressure and still kept finding – and that’s why I respect him. But the horses trying to build momentum from deep and wide? In a fast-run mile, that’s a brutal task.
That brings us to the big picture. Since the Derby distance was increased to 2000m in 2000, only seven Classic Mile winners have gone on to win the Derby. Five of those have been in the last nine years – and two of them were proper champions and the other very good: Golden Sixty (2019), Romantic Warrior (2022) and Voyage Bubble (2023). Another one, Rapper Dragon (2017), looked like he could have been headed that way too before his career was tragically cut short.
That’s the point: the Classic Mile–Derby double is not something an “ordinary good” horse does. It takes a very, very good one.
And the Derby test in Hong Kong isn’t always about ‘stamina’ the way some overseas people think. It’s often about racing manners. Can your horse relax when the tempo drops? Can he go slow enough mid-race when the pace slackens – which often happens as the races step up in distance – and then still pick up when it counts?
Little Paradise has shown he’s got a powerful sprint when it’s laid out for him. But the Classic Mile was close to the perfect run to make him look great. He was flattered by the way the race was run and the way it opened for him late.
Now I want to see him do it again under different circumstances – when things don’t go exactly right. If he’s out at the 700 and having to sustain a wide run in a fast-run race, can he still win? Maybe he can. Maybe he’s just better than them. But that’s still a question.
And don’t forget the horses behind him. Invincible Ibis is the obvious “forgive” runner. He was last, had to make a long run and that’s a nightmare around that turn at that speed – especially when you’re being pushed about and bumped. It didn’t help that Patch Of Cosmo was bothering him from the inside either. Invincible Ibis didn’t get the right run to be competitive. It was close to impossible.
So yes – Little Paradise is the horse to beat right now. But the Derby isn’t won in late January, it will be won on March 22. But before then a lot of the questions I have about Little Paradise – and his key rivals – will be answered over 1800m in the Classic Cup.
Zac Was Disappointed, But Sagacious Life Ran OK
Zac Purton was clearly disappointed with Sagacious Life – and I get it, because he chose him over at least six other Classic Mile rivals, including the winner.
But I actually thought the Brazilian import ran OK in fourth.
He’s not the type of horse that’s going to sprint like Little Paradise did when the gap came, particularly given the run he had from the draw. He was three-deep the whole way and there wasn’t much Zac could do about it.
This horse doesn’t quicken. He’s a grinder – he keeps whacking away. That can look plain in a truly fast-run mile when others are able to sprint off a soft run, but it can also be the profile of a horse that’s looking for 2000 metres and a more genuine staying test later in the series.
He didn’t go bad. He just ran like the horse he is – a Derby-type who’ll keep coming, not a horse who’s going to put three lengths on them in 200 metres.
Others To Watch: The 2026 Four-Year-Old Classic Series Is Still Wide Open
If you’re looking beyond the winner, there are still plenty of Derby hopes alive.
Beauty Bolt continues to run tough races. He sat outside the lead in a fast-run race, under pressure, and when the horses around him faded he still found more. He hasn’t run a bad race in Hong Kong and he keeps giving you an honest effort.
Patch Of Cosmo also ran well, and I’m forgiving him. First-up last start he was coming off a long break – more than 300 days due to a tendon issue – and ran a terrific mile with a big weight. To back that up two weeks later is not a plus, it’s often a trap. Given the run he had, I thought he was good and he’s a big watch going forward.
I’m also not dropping Invincible Ibis off one run. He had genuine excuses and you can’t judge him harshly off a trip where he had to start his move early and sustain it around the bend at speed.
And keep an eye on the other winners on the day who are still Derby eligible. Lucky Sam Gor won the 1600m and is doing nothing wrong. Super Express took out the 1400m – he’s still learning, but he’s in the conversation until proven otherwise.
The big thing is this: the Classic Mile has not “ended the series” – it’s only made it more interesting. ∎
