2026 Hong Kong Derby: Power Rankings, January 28
Idol Horse’s Hong Kong racing experts provide their top 14 contenders for the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby.
2026 Hong Kong Derby: Power Rankings, January 28
Idol Horse’s Hong Kong racing experts provide their top 14 contenders for the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby.
28 January, 2026Sunday’s Hong Kong Classic Mile is likely to provide the biggest shake-up to the rankings yet, with 10 of the top 14 – including the top three – contesting the race.
Our expert panel will again rank the Derby contenders after the Classic Mile and throughout the Four-Year-Old Classic Series, which continues with the Hong Kong Classic Cup (1800m) on March 1 and concludes with the BMW Hong Kong Derby on March 22.
1. Invincible Ibis
Previous Ranking: 1
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 91
Record: 7:4-2-1
Remains the clear top pick after an authoritative mile win that reinforced his class and composure. He continues to do everything right at the right time.
Has won four straight with improvement to come and nothing so far suggests he won’t handle the step up in distance as the Derby picture becomes clearer.
Hugh Bowman seems the right fit for a horse that likes to settle and then unleash with one sweeping run. Does that riding pattern limit him in a Derby that is always tactical?
2. Sagacious Life
Previous Ranking: 2
Trainer: Pierre Ng
Rating: 97
HK Record: 3:2-0-0
Previous Name: Navio Fantasma
Zac Purton’s Classic Mile decision has locked him into the conversation at the very top. His mount brings the highest rating and proven mile through mile-and-a-half performances into the series.
The question marks are Brazilian form – no South American import has ever seriously challenged in the Derby – and the fact Sagacious Life is listed as a roarer. But the condition hasn’t stopped him winning twice in Class 2 from three starts and for Purton it is a case of respecting the rating.
3. Little Paradise
Previous Ranking: 3
Trainer: Jimmy Ting
Rating: 95
Record: 8:5-1-1
A polished, progressive Hong Kong performer who keeps winning and doing it with authority. His most recent win at 1400m again showed a tactical versatility he is going to need as the distances progress.
The mile-plus question still lingers, but his class and consistency keeps him firmly inside the top tier.
4. Numbers
Previous Ranking: 4
Trainer: Frankie Lor
Rating: 90
HK Record: 2:1-0-1
Previous Name: King Of Thunder
One of the few genuine stayers in the rankings, with proven form at longer trips overseas. He may lack the brilliance of some above him, but his stamina and ability to grind on-pace could become increasingly valuable.
A strong recent trial over 1600m showed he is holding form and fitness. Trainer Frankie Lor has opted to skip the Classic Mile in favour of the G3 Centenary Vase on February 8 and then the Classic Cup.
5. Patch Of Cosmo (NEW)
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: Manfred Man
Rating: 84
HK Record: 12:5-0-0
Counted out by experts in the first two ballots, Patch of Cosmo made an incredible return after 300-plus days on the sidelines with a tendon injury to win at a mile, carrying 135lb in Class 3.
Now there is the danger of a second-up ‘bounce’ – especially with just a two-week gap into the Classic Mile – but he is an intriguing new contender based on his undeniable class and upside.
6. Dazzling Fit (↓)
Previous Ranking: 5
Trainer: David Eustace
Rating: 75
Record: 9:3-1-1
A solid, reliable type who continues to hold his ground against strong opposition. His toughness and race fitness are clear assets.
David Eustace gambled by not pushing for a Classic Mile spot – putting his horse’s long-term future first. A fair, run-on fifth at a mile last time was enough for him to maintain his mid-table ranking, with only the re-emerging comeback horse Patch Of Cosmo knocking him down.
7. Top Dragon (↓)
Previous Ranking: 6
Trainer: Chris So
Rating: 81
Record: 11:3-3-2
Consistent and well exposed at this level, with form tying in neatly with several around him, including third behind Sagacious Life last start. Rarely runs a bad race.
The question is whether he has another level when the pressure rises.
8. Beauty Bolt (↓)
Previous Ranking: 7
Trainer: Tony Cruz
Rating: 85
Record: 7:2-3-1
Previous Name: Thunder Song
Has quietly built a strong body of Hong Kong form. Was only a neck behind top ranked Invincible Ibis last start when in receipt of just one pound.
Still knocking on the door without forcing a rankings jump just yet – the Classic Mile, where he will be ridden by James McDonald and gets the opportunity to show his toughness and tactical versatility, is his chance.
9. Public Attention (↓)
Previous Ranking: 8
Trainer: David Hayes
Rating: 83
HK Record: 3:0-1-1
Previous Name: Public Attention
Winless so far in Hong Kong but his overseas form points to genuine class.
Stuck wide last start and showed some toughness. Form says his best trip is more likely a mile than the Derby distance of 2000m.
10. Windlord (↑)
Previous Ranking: 11
Trainer: Cody Mo
Rating: 80
HK Record: 1:0-0-0
Previous Name: Windlord
European form suggests stamina and resilience and his first Hong Kong run was sound without being spectacular. There’s scope for improvement if he sharpens tactically. Has trialled since the first-up run into Sunday’s Classic Mile.
11. Infinite Resolve (↑)
Previous Ranking: 12
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 84
HK Record: 8:1-3-2
Previous Name: Deconstruction
A progressive type who took a step forward when stretched out to 1400m behind Little Paradise. His late work last start was encouraging and he profiles as a horse still on the way up. Runs in Sunday’s Classic Mile.
12. Glittering Legend (↓)
Previous Ranking: 10
Trainer: David Eustace
Rating: 78
HK Record: 1:0-0-0
Previous Name: Glittering Legend
Has the right kind of overseas form to compete in the Derby but has struggled to acclimatise judging by his only run so far. The clock is ticking fast on him finding form in time for the big one.
13. Circuit Grand Slam
Previous Ranking: Outside the Top 14
Trainer: Manfred Man
Rating: 80
HK Record: 4:1-0-1
Previous Name: Tunbridge Wells
Irish import from a precocious sprinting family, stormed to a smart 1200m win first-up at big odds under Britney Wong, followed by some run-on efforts under big weights.
Derek Leung gets on board for the Classic Mile – the horse’s first time beyond 1400m – a set weights event that will provide a true litmus test of his Derby credentials.
14. Aerodynamics (NEW)
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 74
HK Record: 2:0-1-0
Won three from four in South Africa up to 1475m. A strong second to Patch Of Cosmo last time, getting five pounds from the winner, makes him one to watch.
Missed a start in the Classic Mile, which hurts his chances, but is open to improvement and one more win might be enough to qualify for this year’s Derby.
