2025 BMW Hong Kong Derby Power Rankings, March 11

The BMW Hong Kong Derby picture has been murky at times but it finally appears clear, just 12 days out from the four-year-old feature.

The main protagonists have established their place at the head of the field and it is now about those on the fringes who will hope they are selected for their one and only chance at Derby glory.

Our panel of Hong Kong racing experts have ranked the BMW Hong Kong Derby contenders ahead of the final field announcement on Friday.

The Power Rankings are formed by asking a panel of 10 Hong Kong racing experts to each rank the Derby contenders one to 14. We use these lists to create a top 14, in order. The experts will continue to update lists at key times during the lead-up to March 23.

1. Rubylot (AUS)

Rubylot will be aiming to become the first horse to complete the Classic Cup – Derby double since Golden Sixty in 2020. Brenton Avdulla will take his second Derby mount, having partnered Elliptical into 11th last year.

2. Johannes Brahms (GB)

No horse has had a more topsy-turvy path to the Derby than Johannes Brahms. Originally high up in the panel’s estimation, he dropped out after finishing at the tail of the field in the Classic Mile. Bounced back with a Class 2 win and an unlucky, eye-catching third in the Classic Cup. He is aiming to become the second consecutive Derby winner to have emerged from Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle operation after Massive Sovereign last year.

3. Bundle Award (AUS)

John Size is a master of producing horses at the right time for the Derby – his most recent winner Ping Hai Star is a perfect example – and Bundle Award rocketed into calculations with a dazzling Class 2 win from last on Sunday. Having watched last year’s Derby from the sidelines, jockey Ben Thompson will make his race debut aboard a legitimate contender in Bundle Award.

Bundle Award punches his 2025 @BMW Hong Kong Derby ticket! 🔥@BenThompson2102 gets John Size's galloper home from the back of the field for a first Class 2 win at Sha Tin… #HKracing pic.twitter.com/erpfaq3dNP

— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) March 9, 2025

4. My Wish (AUS)

The Classic Mile winner has become something of the forgotten horse, even though the Classic Mile–Derby double has been easier to complete in recent years than the Classic Cup–Derby double. Both Romantic Warrior and Voyage Bubble were unplaced in the Classic Cup before returning to form in the Derby; My Wish, having finished second in the 1800m contest, has better credentials than both of them leading into the Derby.

5. Packing Angel (NZ)

Sent off as favourite in the Classic Cup but could only manage fourth. The last three Hong Kong Derby winners to contest the Classic Cup – Sky Darci, Romantic Warrior and Voyage Bubble – were all in the market but unplaced over 1800m before coming into their own at 2000m.

6. Noisy Boy (AUS)

The only one of the panel’s top 14 horses who is a course and distance winner. He faded away in the Classic Cup but he was given little chance and improvement can be expected up to the 2000m.

7. Stunning Peach (IRE)

The original top seed was just fair in the Classic Cup. He chased home Noisy Boy over 2000m in January and does meet him nine pounds better at the weights.

8. Steps Ahead (AUS)

Stuck to his task well to finish fifth in the Classic Cup. Has only performed poorly once, that coming in a Class 3 lead-up to the Classic Mile when he was off the track throughout. Not bred to see out 2000m but as honest as they come.

9. Californiatotality (AUS)

The hardy gelding simply couldn’t overcome a wide draw in the Classic Cup. In fact, he has drawn a double-digit barrier at all seven starts this season. He is due a good gate and, should it come in the Derby, he will likely be right in the thick of things at the top of the straight.

10. Markwin (AUS)

While he could only manage second behind Bundle Award on the weekend, he received a five-point ratings boost as he was five pounds out of the handicap. That should secure trainer Cody Mo his first Derby runner.

11. Cap Ferrat (AUS)

The form around Cap Ferrat from Australia continues to stand up – Tom Kitten, who defeated him in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes, beat Mr Brightside in last weekend’s G1 All-Star Mile, while Ceolwulf, one spot ahead of Cap Ferrat in the G1 Rosehill Guineas, looks poised for a big autumn. Finding that sort of form will be Cap Ferrat’s only hope; he remains eligible for maiden company abroad.

12. Pray For Mir (AUS)

Cody Mo will need some luck to get two runners in his second season as a trainer, but Pray For Mir is right on the cusp. He stuck on resolutely last start over 2000m but was just run down by Enthralled when carrying eight pounds more than his rival. If he gets a start he could go forward and remain in the mix for a long way.

13. Lo Rider (GB)

His fourth last weekend behind Bundle Award would have seemingly ruled him out of a Derby spot. However, as others fall away, he is not completely out of contention. He will have ground to make up on Bundle Award and Markwin should he gain a start.

14. Enthralled (USA)

It would be controversial if Enthralled gained a start with a rating of 73, ahead of a horse like Mondial on 80. However, his last-to-first victory over Pray For Mir put him firmly in the frame. Our panel collectively had him ahead of Mondial as he would be a chance – if he could somehow sneak into the field ∎

Expert Panel: David Morgan (Idol Horse), Andrew Hawkins (Idol Horse), Michael Cox (Idol Horse), Steven Ho (Idol Horse), Zoher Abdoolcarim (former TIME Magazine Asia Editor and Hong Kong racing expert), Pete Twomey (bloodstock agent), Grant Courtney (horse racing photographer), Mike Doleuze (Hong Kong form expert), Luke Middlebrook (Hong Kong form expert).

Trainer Profile

John Size: The Man Who Changed The Hong Kong Game

Previous Rankings

Hong Kong Derby Power Rankings, March 4

Champions Day

El Vencedor, Mr Brightside On Track For Hong Kong