2025 BMW Hong Kong Derby Power Rankings, March 4

Hong Kong Classic Cup winner Rubylot has surged to the top of the Idol Horse BMW Hong Kong Derby Power Rankings – and his trainer David Hayes agrees with our panel’s assessment.

“He has to be one of the favourites for the Derby now, doesn’t he?” said Hayes. “He’s quite a smart horse and he’s pulled up really well. We always had a big opinion of him and we placed him with the four-year-old series in mind. 

“He was slaughtered by the barrier in the first one (the Hong Kong Classic Mile) and then he still had an awkward gate on Sunday but he ate up the distance. I think the Derby will be perfect for him and he’s due a good barrier.”

Hayes will be double-handed in the Derby with South African Group 1 placegetter Mondial also set to line up – although our panel has him just outside their top 14 contenders.

“The Derby is the idea,” he said. “He missed the start in the Classic Cup and he’s a leader but he still ran well. In the Derby, we plan to put him forward and I think he’ll improve a lot.”

Trainer Francis Lui has ruled out two of his leading contenders: Packing Hermod, who peaked at number four in our rankings, and Divano, who was sixth in the most recent rankings issued last month.

However, Lui’s leading contender Packing Angel will progress to the Derby after finishing fourth in the Classic Cup. Joao Moreira will retain the ride on March 23 as he chases his third Derby success.

Our panel of Hong Kong racing experts have ranked the BMW Hong Kong Derby contenders ahead of the final field announcement on March 12.

The Power Rankings are formed by asking a panel of 10 Hong Kong racing experts to each rank the Derby contenders one to 14. We use these lists to create a top 14, in order. The experts will continue to update lists at key times during the lead-up to March 23.

1. Rubylot (AUS)

The Classic Cup cemented Rubylot as a key contender for the Derby. In a strongly run race, he produced the best sectionals late and was powerful through the line.

Rubylot finishes right over the top! 💪

An elated @brentonavdulla recorded his first #4YOSeries win with David Hayes' galloper in the Hong Kong Classic Cup at Sha Tin on Sunday… #LoveRacing | #HKracing pic.twitter.com/N23wJCQyH8

— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) March 3, 2025

2. Johannes Brahms (GB)

If there was one horse finishing off almost as well as Rubylot, it was Johannes Brahms. The only blot on his copybook was a poor last in the Classic Mile, but Pierre Ng’s charge has put that failure behind him with two good efforts since.

3. My Wish (AUS)

The Classic Mile winner proved that victory was no fluke, sticking on well for second in the Classic Cup. Mark Newnham’s My Wish was by far and away the best performer of those who raced in the front half early and that tactical speed may prove an asset around the two turns of the Derby.

4. Packing Angel (NZ)

The beaten Classic Cup favourite loomed up as though he was going to challenge over the concluding stages, but his turn of foot was dulled and both Rubylot and Johannes Brahms raced on by. Joao Moreira has committed to ride Francis Lui’s horse in the Derby.

5. Noisy Boy (AUS)

Noisy Boy faded in the Classic Cup after forcing a strong tempo through the middle stages. As a winner over the Derby course and distance as well as the Happy Valley 2200m, Dennis Yip’s four-year-old should relish getting up to 2000m at his next start.

6. Steps Ahead (AUS)

The second of Francis Lui’s five runners to cross the line in the Classic Cup, Steps Ahead backed up a narrow Class 3 win over 1800m last month to finish only three lengths behind Rubylot in fifth. He has a pure sprinting pedigree but he continues to step up.

7. Stunning Peach (IRE)

When these rankings were first revealed in January, Tony Cruz’s Stunning Peach was the number one contender. He has continued to slide backwards, although he has not been completely dismissed. A fair sixth in the Classic Cup suggests he will be somewhere in the mix.

8. Sky Heart (NZ)

The first horse in our rankings who did not contest the Classic Cup, Caspar Fownes-trained Sky Heart was a last-start Class 3 winner over 1600m. He will contest an 1800m Class 2 this weekend, where he will meet fellow Derby aspirants Cambridge, Markwin, Bundle Award and Lo Rider.

9. Californiatotality (AUS)

Californiatotality entered the Classic Cup having won his only two starts over the Sha Tin 1800m. From the outside gate, he pressed forward before weakening but he stuck on far better than leader Noisy Boy. He may not be Tony Cruz’s top seed but he deserves his chance in an open Derby.

10. Light Years Charm (AUS)

Another who did not contest the Classic Cup, David Eustace’s Light Years Charm will make his first foray beyond 1400m when he steps up to 1600m in a Class 3 handicap this weekend. Whether he wants the added trip is another matter entirely but it should prove a good Derby test for him.

11. Cap Ferrat (AUS)

One of the most disappointing horses of the Four-Year-Old Classic Series so far, he arrived in Hong Kong with high hopes having placed in both the G1 Spring Champion Stakes and G1 Rosehill Guineas at 2000m. His first-up second to Mickley only added to expectations, but he has performed poorly in both the Classic Mile and the Classic Cup. It will take a mighty training performance from Francis Lui to turn him around, but he is guaranteed a Derby berth with his rating.

12. Sky Trust (AUS)

The Classic Cup was a nightmare for Sky Trust. He raced keenly early from an inside gate and, when he got close to the heels of Stunning Peach approaching the 1200m, Hugh Bowman was forced to flush him out wide and he improved into what was a decent tempo. He will need to settle better if he is to be a legitimate Derby contender but he shapes as one of two chances for Caspar Fownes.

13. Bundle Award (AUS)

Bundle Award will get his chance to race into Derby calculations this weekend in the same Class 2 as Sky Heart. With a number of contenders falling away, the John Size-trained galloper has found himself back in the top 14 after dropping out in the last set of rankings.

14. Pray For Mir (AUS)

The sole runner from last weekend on our list who did not contest the Classic Cup, Cody Mo’s Pray For Mir finished a neck second in a Class 3 over 2000m. The winner Enthralled was perhaps the better Derby trial, but Pray For Mir did give him eight pounds and – on a rating of 76 – is more likely to sneak into the field. His ability to race handy could see him perform above expectations should he make the race ∎

Expert Panel: David Morgan (Idol Horse), Andrew Hawkins (Idol Horse), Michael Cox (Idol Horse), Steven Ho (Idol Horse), Zoher Abdoolcarim (former TIME Magazine Asia Editor and Hong Kong racing expert), Pete Twomey (bloodstock agent), Grant Courtney (horse racing photographer), Mike Doleuze (Hong Kong form expert), Luke Middlebrook (Hong Kong form expert).

Previous Rankings

Hong Kong Derby Power Rankings, February 19

Sha Tin Blitz

Brenton Avdulla's Three Wins In 65 Minutes