Horse To Follow: Croix du Nord
1st of 9, 2YO G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes
1800m (Turf), Tokyo
Saturday November 16
The G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes is a renowned “stepping stone” race won by Derby champions, and this year Croix du Nord marked his place as a contender for next year’s Classics.
Croix du Nord, a son of Kitasan Black, first gained attention in June’s Newcomer race. Although he was the third favorite behind Arlecchino, another Sunday Racing colt, he triumphed with a 2.5 length victory after sitting second early and unleashing a finishing kick of 33.8 seconds over the final 600 metres. Arlecchino later dominated his next maiden race by seven lengths, further fueling the reputation of this two-year-old colt.
In his second outing, the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai, Croix du Nord weighed in at 504 kilograms, 24 kilograms heavier than his debut and clearly still far from peak condition. Despite this, he replicated his prior performance by stalking the leader, overtaking effortlessly, and securing victory by 0.75 lengths. While the winning margin was narrower than his debut, the commanding performance left no doubt about his potential.
“He’s not yet at 100%, but his victory today really highlights his immense potential,” said jockey Yuichi Kitamura. “Next time, with his weight trimmed and more fluid movement, I expect his responsiveness to improve even further.”
The winning time of 1:46.8 wasn’t particularly remarkable compared to past editions – an honour roll that includes star gallopers Contrail and Wagnerian – and Rod Horn clocked a faster 1:45.9 in a two-year-old maiden race the following day. However, the Tokyo Sports Hai was tactically run at a slower pace, a factor that should not detract from Croix du Nord’s performance.
The highlight of Croix du Nord’s win lies in his final 600 metres. The overall race’s last 600 metres was clocked at 33.4 seconds, the third fastest in JRA history for two-year-old graded stakes races. Notably, the top two were recorded in the G3 Niigata Nisai Stakes, making this the fastest ever for the Tokyo Sports Hai. Individually, Croix du Nord recorded 33.3 seconds, marking him as a standout performer.
Since 2010, eight winners of the Tokyo Sports Hai have recorded the fastest final 600 metres, and seven of them went on to become Group 1 winners. This illustrious group includes Equinox, Contrail, Wagnerian, Satono Crown, and Deep Brillante.
Naturally, comparisons arise with Equinox, the 2021 winner of this race. Both horses won the Tokyo Sports Hai at their second start, shared Kitasan Black as their sire, and showcased a devastating turn of foot. It’s no surprise that Croix du Nord is being hailed as the ‘next Equinox’.
Looking back at the 2021 race, Equinox recorded a final 600 meters of 32.9 seconds and won by 2.5 lengths with a time of 1:46.2. While his lap times surpassed those of 2024, it’s worth noting that the final 400 metres of this year’s race were quicker.
Saturday’s second-place finisher, Satono Shining, and third-place finisher, Red Kingly, also showed exceptional promise. Satono Shining, in particular, faced adversity throughout, including being forced to lead against his preference while also losing a shoe during the race. Despite this he came within a length of the winner, which is testament to his tenacity. Both horses demonstrated significant potential alongside the winner.
While Croix du Nord’s next start has not been confirmed, the G1 Hopeful Stakes in December is likely under consideration by trainer Takashi Saito. Looking ahead, the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) is the primary target for next year. His dam, Rising Cross, finished second in both the 2006 G1 Oaks and the G1 Irish Oaks, indicating no pedigree concerns over Classic distances.
It may be premature to declare Croix du Nord the next Equinox, but he, Satono Shining and Red Kingly all appear poised to make waves in next year’s Classics.
Future Outlook: As of 2024, Croix du Nord stands as the leading contender for the 2025 Japanese Derby ∎
