The head-to-head ledger between Invincible Ibis and Little Paradise now reads 4-1 after Sunday’s G3 Celebration Cup, but what interests me most is the betting rather than the scoreline.
The only time Little Paradise has beaten Invincible Ibis was the only time he was the longer price of the two, 5.4 against 3.2 in the Classic Mile. In the four meetings since, Little Paradise has started shorter in the market every time, and every time Invincible Ibis has finished in front of him. On Sunday, Little Paradise ran sixth as the 1.9 favourite while Invincible Ibis won at 8.8 – and gave him three pounds.
To understand why the market keeps getting this wrong, you have to go back to the Classic Mile. On video, Little Paradise’s win looked extraordinary, but as I wrote in this column at the time, “the Classic Mile was close to the perfect run to make him look great.” Invincible Ibis’ run was every bit as good. He was travelling wide, got pushed wider and had to make his ground through the quickest part of the race – the second 400m went in 22.09 – while Little Paradise was held up on the inside, saving ground and energy until the gap came.
To be fair to anyone who backed Little Paradise on Sunday, plenty of people fell into the same trap. Of the two horses, Little Paradise trialled better, and Invincible Ibis’ trainer Mark Newnham said beforehand his horse might need the run – and he’d be happy with third or fourth. Zac Purton makes a difference to the price too – the punters follow his choice. Zac chose Little Paradise and I am sure that affected the price.
But the bigger reason is that punters, and computer teams in particular, keep going back to that one Classic Mile win. The models always return to a peak rating, believing it can happen again. A horse might be rated 80 on the Hong Kong scale, but the teams use times, margins, weights and the relative strength of each race, to build their own figure for every horse’s run. So a big run might rate a 95 and a bad one a 60. Little Paradise rated big in the Classic Mile and the market has chased that number ever since, although in fairness he did win a Group 3 at the end of last season.
The biggest difference between the two horses is that Newnham worked out Invincible Ibis’ ‘racing pattern’ very early in his career.
So what is a racing pattern? A horse’s racing pattern is the way each horse likes to be ridden in terms of race position. Some horses like to run free from the start and be on the pace – like Ka Ying Rising, Silent Witness or Beauty Generation. Some horses are better ridden back in the field and allowed time to get into rhythm and stride in an effort to finish with one big run – like Golden Sixty, Able Friend or Designs On Rome.
Newnham found the key to Invincible Ibis very early on – allow the horse time to relax back in the field, and ride him where he feels comfortable. And that means he conserved energy in races, and was able to finish off.
As for Little Paradise, he still doesn’t know how to race properly. He doesn’t have gate speed and he sometimes doesn’t jump well at the start, but the bottom line is that he is better ridden back in the field.
The problem with Little Paradise is when he doesn’t jump well – because he hasn’t got natural early gate speed, when he is pushed to be closer to the lead, the horse over-races. He gets the signal from the rider to go fast, but he doesn’t know how to settle back into a rhythm and relax once he has found a position.
As I see it, the biggest problem is that Little Paradise isn’t an easy horse to ride. Riding him for speed early to get a forward position just doesn’t suit him. If I were riding him, I’d tell the owner and trainer I’ll ride him where he wants to be, whether that’s third or 11th.
Sunday’s runner-up Galaxy Patch is similar. In a perfect world you’d put every horse in the first four, because that’s where most winners come from, but it doesn’t suit every horse.
The style comes from the horse, and Mark Newnham deserves credit for realising early that the best way to ride Invincible Ibis is quiet and back a bit, and that’s why he has been so consistent. On Sunday, Luke Ferraris never bustled him out of gate one, waited until around the 350m and he quickened well. Either Invincible Ibis exceeded expectations first-up with his win or we have underestimated him, and I think he was underestimated right through the Four-Year-Old Classic Series.
If Invincible Ibis and Little Paradise meet again in the Sha Tin Trophy on October 19, a Group 2 handicap, I’m picking Little Paradise won’t start favourite, especially with Zac getting off him to ride My Wish.
Sky Jewellery Returns In A Cracking Class 2
It looks to me like three horses are vying to be the best miler in Hong Kong: My Wish, Invincible Ibis and Galaxy Patch. Voyage Bubble is on the outer, trying to get back in as an aging horse. There’s one more to consider, though, and he’s back on Thursday.
Sky Jewellery has become something of a forgotten horse. He’s still rated 95, he’s only just turned five and he’s won five of his eight starts. He missed the entire four-year-old series and would have been right in it. He was off from April last year until April this year, and he’d already been out seven months when he bled in November, so there was obviously more to that break than a bleed. When he came back, he won twice, including a Class 2 over the mile, then ran a half-length fourth in a Group 3 handicap in May.
He’s two from two first-up but John Size has found a tough race to test that record on Thursday. As top weight in the Class 2 Beijing Handicap over 1400m, he has to give weight to some very talented horses. Hot Delight has won four of his five starts and looked like a potential star – if there were a 2027 Classic Mile market right now he’d probably be favourite. He gets six pounds from Sky Jewellery, but he’s first-up, has never raced past 1200m and is by Too Darn Hot, whose progeny I tend to think of as sprinters.
Chill Easy has won his last two over this course and distance for Ricky Yiu and steps into Class 2 for the first time, although he was third behind Sky Jewellery in April. Top Dragon, from last season’s series, picks up Zac. Infinite Resolve, second in the Classic Mile, was beaten half a length first-up this month, Beauty Bolt was second at his last start in July, and Public Attention, now with Brett Crawford, ran on for second first-up.
Then there’s the Brazilian import Bravefield for Danny Shum. He won a Group 1 over 2400m in Brazil last November, placed at the top level in Brazil and Argentina, and trialled well at Happy Valley last week. As a Southern Hemisphere four-year-old, he’s eligible for this season’s Four-Year-Old Classic Series, but you couldn’t find him a harder first assignment than a Class 2 1400m against this field.
What a great race this is going to be.
Bustling City: Back To The Turf While He Can
I thought Bustling City was great on the all-weather for David Hayes and Brenton Avdulla on Sunday. I don’t back short-priced horses very often, but I backed him at 1.7 because I thought he would lead and not get beaten – I had him rated at 1.4. He led all the way to win the Class 3 over 1200m by seven lengths. His dirt trial beforehand was outstanding, he was hard held and running 1.08.94s for 1200 on the AWT. He has now won his last two on the dirt by a combined 11.5 lengths. The Ling family has been around racing a long time; I won the Classic Mile for them back in 2001 on a horse named Charming City.
Bustling City came to Hong Kong from Australia with big raps on his trials, started at 1.5 first-up, and ran near last in each of his first two. The dirt has been the key, but he also arrived last October, which is a bad time to come for Australian imports because horses are carrying their winter coats into the Hong Kong heat. Plenty don’t acclimatise early, so maybe it just took him time.
He’s gone up 12 points for Sunday’s win to 74, but based on that performance that won’t stop him next time.
He obviously flies on the dirt and that surface will always be there for him to come back to – but I’d take him back to the turf now while there’s still the option. There aren’t many Class 1 or Class 2 races on the dirt, and if he keeps winning there and ends up in Class 2 before you know whether he handles grass, you’ve got a horse that’s very hard to find a race for. If he turns out to be a dirt horse only, at least you can find out now by running him on the grass again. If he is a top class dirt specialist, there are big race options in Dubai and Saudi Arabia. The Ling family won the Golden Shaheen with Sterling City in 2014 so who knows, maybe they will find themselves back in the same race again one day? ∎
