The Hong Kong Derby is six months away today. It sounds like plenty of time, but it isn’t.
Every owner in Hong Kong wants to win it. If they’ve got a four-year-old that goes OK, it doesn’t matter whether it sprints or stays – the first question is always the same. Can it run in the Derby?
There’s more than one way to get there. Some horses come from nowhere late and rocket through the grades, like Luger and Ping Hai Star did. Some are established milers who earn their ratings as three-year-olds and are then classy enough to stretch to 2000 metres at four, like Rapper Dragon and Golden Sixty. And then there’s the type I want to talk about this week, because we’ve got more of them than in years – the PPs.
First, a quick explainer on what a PP is.
There are three ways a horse arrives in Hong Kong. A PPG – a Privately Purchased Griffin – has never raced. Golden Sixty and Ka Ying Rising came that way. An ISG is also unraced, bought through the Jockey Club’s International Sale, and Romantic Warrior is the best of those by a long way. Both PPGs and ISGs start on a rating of 52 and work their way up.
A PP – a private purchase – is different. It has raced somewhere else, it has proven form, and it arrives with an assigned rating from the Jockey Club handicappers, based on the horse’s performances abroad.
Providence won the 2026 Queensland Derby and was assigned a rating of 83 this week. He will be trained by James Cummings. He’s one of six horses out of the 2026 Queensland Derby to be purchased for Hong Kong. It feels like a throwback to the sort of middle-distance horse John Moore did so well with – horses like Werther, who was second in the 2015 Queensland Derby and won the 2026 Hong Kong Derby.
Now, let’s be clear about something. These Queensland Derby horses aren’t the best horses in Australia, but they’re probably the best horses for sale at a reasonable price.
Prize money in Australia has more than doubled in the last 10 years, driven by big increases in New South Wales, so the really good ones can’t be bought because they can win so much money staying in Australia. Here’s an example: a few years ago an owner rang me about a horse that had placed in a Group 1 for three-year-olds in Sydney. The Australian owners wanted A$2.5 million. “Too expensive,” the Hong Kong owner said. I told him to buy it. He didn’t. That horse has now won more than A$7 million in Australia – and he has only won one Group 1. Ten years ago, he’d have been worth a million, maybe a million and a half.
The best form in Australia is in Sydney and Melbourne. Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are a step below. That’s no knock on the Queensland Derby. It’s simply the race where owners are still willing to let a proven horse go. Maybe the six horses that were bought from the Queensland Derby this year was a result of Numbers coming out of the race last year and finishing second in the 2026 Hong Kong Derby.
So what should we watch for over the next six months? Acclimatisation is key.
Start with the calendar. Most of these horses are sold in June and July, in the middle of an Australian winter. They’ve grown their winter coats, and then they arrive in Hong Kong’s summer a few months later. It can take a while for horses to adjust.
Most of these horses are rated 80-plus – which means they are thrown in the deep end, racing against more experienced horses that have earned their marks in Hong Kong. They have to be at or close to their best right away to measure up.
The good news for an Australiasian purchase is that they will be trained very similarly in Hong Kong: shorter gallops, running faster times in trackwork. They adapt quicker than the Europeans. More on that below.
Don’t read too much into the barrier trials, either. Most of these horses want a mile and a quarter, and they’re trialling over 1200 metres and getting back. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see that – you have to wait until race day to find out what they really have.
The Classic Mile is on January 31, 2027, the Classic Cup on February 28, and the Derby on March 21. For some of these horses, the race isn’t against each other. It’s against time.
We’ll follow them all the way. If you’ve seen one you like, let me know.
A Word On Northern Hemisphere PPs
There are three more interesting imports on the way that haven’t been rated yet, and they’re all from Europe: Royal Ascot winner Generic for James Cummings, Greenham winner Alparslan for Douglas Whyte, and Dolmalan, sixth in the French Derby, now with Tony Cruz.
So how do we assess European PPs differently?
Here’s the simple version. A good European middle-distance horse is better than a good Australian middle-distance horse. A good Australian sprinter is better than an English one. Beyond a mile, the northern hemisphere usually has the edge.
The catch is time.
In England and Ireland, horses are trained on the big, open gallops like at Newmarket or on the Curragh. They work in big strings, they do longer work and a lot of walking. It’s a relaxed build-up. Then there is the weather – it’s hot and humid in Hong Kong and summer lasts longer and a horse can sweat up more because of it, which is wasting their energy. Basically, trackwork at Sha Tin is a different world, and it takes a big adjustment for a horse coming from the northern hemisphere.
It makes getting a northern hemisphere import ready for the Derby a race against time. Only three of the last 14 winners were northern hemisphere PPs – Akeed Mofeed in 2013, Designs On Rome in 2014 and Massive Sovereign in 2024. Five southern hemisphere PPs won it during the same stretch.
Look at how those three did it, too. Designs On Rome came here as a two-year-old, so he’d been in Hong Kong more than a year by Derby day. Akeed Mofeed was bought after the Irish Derby in July and was on the ground in good time for the following March, whereas Massive Sovereign arrived in early November and won it on a quick turnaround.
Plenty of good Europeans simply ran out of time. Military Attack, Time Warp, Glorious Forever, Exultant – none of them won the Derby. All of them went on to win at the top level. They just needed a little longer for their form to catch up with their rating.
Sometimes the rating is the problem, too. A European horse can arrive off a rating that doesn’t match their ability.
They may have won or placed in a very weak Listed or Group race at home and because of that they have been given a high rating.
So if a European import looks flat in the next few months don’t write him off. He might just be a year away.
Celebration Cup – Potential Stars Return
Sunday’s Group 3 Celebration Cup over 1400 metres is a fascinating race, with good four-year-olds from last season coming back against established horses. But the one I’m most interested in is a recent stable transfer.
Galaxy Patch.
He’s got a lot of ability. He’s also a difficult horse to ride, and on plenty of occasions he hasn’t had the best of rides. Two years ago he completed a hat-trick of stakes wins in the Sha Tin Trophy for Pierre Ng, and last season he beat My Wish in the Group 2 Jockey Club Mile. For me, he should have won a Group 1 by now. He should have won the 2024 Hong Kong Mile.
His first run for Brett Crawford, at the end of last season, was outstanding. He ran a close second to Little Paradise in the Premier Cup, giving him 15 pounds. This time he gives him 11, so he meets him four pounds better.
Now he’s had a full break and come back to a stable where he might just be happier. Crawford says he enjoyed his time off at Conghua and has come back stronger. A happier horse can be a better horse.
Then there are the two five-year-olds, and it’s always nice to see how the good ones come back after their four-year-old season.
Invincible Ibis did absolutely nothing wrong last season. He won the Derby, won five of his nine starts, and his last run against the older horses – a one-length fourth in the Champions Mile – was outstanding. Mark Newnham will keep him at a mile for now, with 2000 metres an option later. With Romantic Warrior gone, that’s a tempting door. But he may not need to go through it. On International Day, the Europeans and the Japanese are generally tougher at 2000 metres than they are at a mile.
Little Paradise can be brilliant – his Classic Mile win in February showed that. A big part of his season after that was about getting him to 2000 metres for the Derby. It didn’t work out. Then he dropped back to 1400 metres and beat Galaxy Patch. Now Jimmy Ting has him on a miler’s campaign, the Hong Kong Mile is the target, and Zac Purton is on. If he comes back a star miler, it won’t be the first time a beaten Derby horse returns and dominates at the shorter trips.
Trainer Ricky Yiu has opted against bringing Voyage Bubble back this weekend. When he does come back, don’t write the veteran off. Voyage Bubble has done just about everything – a Derby, a Triple Crown, two Hong Kong Miles. But he’s eight now, his form wasn’t as good last season, and he hasn’t won since last December’s Hong Kong Mile.
So is he past his best? On what we saw last season, you’d think so, but nobody’s questioning his ability.
Be careful with the classy old horse. They can look ordinary, then go bang. Super Impose won a Cox Plate at eight. Voyage Bubble always needs his first run, so I won’t judge him on this one. I don’t see him putting together a whole season at the top. One big run on International Day, though? That’s a possibility. ∎
