Racing Roundtable: Hong Kong Season 2026/27

Who Is Under The Most Pressure?

Michael Cox: Make no mistake: trainer David Hayes and jockey Zac Purton are under the most pressure of anyone in Hong Kong racing. Don’t let the cool exteriors fool you – there’s a reason Hayes won’t be changing the lucky brown suit while Ka Ying Rising’s streak stays alive.

Then there’s Purton. When a horse is as far clear of its rivals as Ka Ying Rising is of his fellow Hong Kong sprinters, there are only two explanations for defeat: injury or rider error.

Champions like Hayes and Purton run toward the flame rather than away from it – but that doesn’t make the heat any less.

David Morgan: It might be tough at the top, but try battling away at the bottom if you want to really know what tough looks like. Jimmy Ting rounded off last season with an important win for his stable when Little Paradise won the G3 Premier Cup Handicap. He had trained the gelding to four wins earlier that campaign, including the Hong Kong Classic Mile, but that very win threw increased scrutiny his way and the pressure was on after subsequent failures in the Classic Cup and Derby. 

It speaks, perhaps, to the loyalty of Little Paradise’s owner, Ko Kam-piu, and the changed attitudes which now appreciate the skills of local Chinese trainers, that Ting still has Little Paradise in his care. A decade ago the horse would have moved to a bigger name. But that pressure still hangs over Ting. 

He ended last season second-bottom in the premiership with only 17 wins, and his stable has less horses than any other at this point, only 38 at time of writing. The pressure to keep his stable star and push his way back up the standings is on.

Luke Middlebrook: It wasn’t long ago that Pierre Ng looked like Hong Kong’s next champion trainer. He had 41 winners in his first season and 69 in his second, leading the championship from November before Francis Lui nailed him 70-69 in the final race of the season.

Since then, the numbers have gone the other way: 40 winners the following season and a slide to 31 last term, when he finished 14th. His strike rate dropped to 5.8 per cent and his prize money haul fell from HK$83.2 million to HK$53.6 million.

More concerning is what has happened around those numbers. Galaxy Patch and Sagacious Life, his two highest-rated horses at the time, left the stable within four days in April, and Ng starts this season with only 53 horses on his books.

Can he pick up where he left off? There were at least some better signs late last season, with five winners across the four meetings before the season finale, but this feels like an important one for Ng.

Name A Horse Without A Group 1 Win That Will Break Through At The Top Level

MC: For a case study in how to bring along a talented Private Purchase Griffin (PPG) – an unraced import – look no further than Invincible Ibis. Every step was programmed with an eye on the future: as a three-year-old he was allowed to run on and build confidence, then progressed steadily up in distance and rating before peaking on BMW Hong Kong Derby day with a pain-free run under a silky ride from big-race specialist Hugh Bowman. Some trainers would have thrown him straight in against Romantic Warrior over the Derby trip in the QEII Cup; Mark Newnham instead chose the Champions Mile, where Invincible Ibis again ran on strongly. Romantic Warrior won’t be around much longer, and Voyage Bubble’s stocks have slipped – the Group 1s in that division are there for the taking.

DM: Hong Kong is looking at a big hole appearing in its 2000m to 2400m ranks if the assessment of Romantic Warrior’s scan results mean he’s to be retired. Even if the great horse is still around this season, he will likely only have two Group 1 starts, in the Hong Kong Cup and perhaps the Saudi Cup. Given the dip in form of another stalwart star, Voyage Bubble, last season, that could leave the way open for Numbers to capitalise.

Frankie Lor’s Numbers raced seven times through his four-year-old campaign last season, placing second in the Derby at 2000m and in the G1 Champions & Chater Cup at 2400m when an unlucky half-length second to Romantic Warrior. He is the standout among the rising generation of stayers and is well-positioned to take advantage of the division’s shallow pool in the G1 Hong Kong Gold Cup over 2000m in February, as well as the Champions & Chater Cup next May.   

LM: The question doesn’t say the Group 1 has to be won in Hong Kong and Dennis Yip’s sprinter Fast Network is going to get his chance in Japan.

He sits sixth on Hong Kong’s current ratings at 121 and there is a telling distinction between him and the five horses above him: Ka Ying Rising, Romantic Warrior, Voyage Bubble, My Wish and Lucky Sweynesse are all Group 1 winners. Fast Network is the highest-rated horse in Hong Kong still waiting.

It is not as though he has been out of place at that level: he was third in the Hong Kong Sprint, third again in the Centenary Sprint Cup and fourth in the Chairman’s Sprint Prize last season. The common denominator in all three? Ka Ying Rising. 

Fast Network gets away from him this time. He is set to use the G2 Centaur Stakes at Hanshin on September 6 as his lead-up to the G1 Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama three weeks later, where he will attempt to become only the third Hong Kong-trained winner after Silent Witness and Ultra Fantasy.

Which Horse Would You Like To See Target An Overseas Race?

MC: When Silent Witness ripped through Hong Kong’s sprint ranks – 17 straight wins over 850 days – he made a legend of his regular runner-up, Cape Of Good Hope. After finishing behind the champion six times in the 2003/04 season, including two straight seconds, trainer David Oughton and owner James Alexander Carstairs decided to look elsewhere – and duly won Group 1s in Australia (the Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley) and England (the Golden Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot).

Helios Express has now been beaten by Ka Ying Rising 13 times since October 2024, but he’s been a model of consistency throughout. Dubai’s straight six furlongs suits a horse with sustained speed and enough stamina to have won the Hong Kong Classic Mile and Classic Cup as a four-year-old.

An overseas Group 1 would also fill a gap in the glittering résumé of champion trainer John Size, who has targeted the Al Quoz Sprint four times previously.

DM: Mark Newnham’s top-class miler My Wish was rewarded for his consistency when he landed his first Group 1 win in the Champions Mile in April, with his usual come-from-behind dash to the wire. With that Group 1 monkey off his back, My Wish should be afforded some freedom of movement to travel offshore and showcase his talent to a wider audience. 

Dubai in March could be ideal. The 1800m of the G1 Dubai Turf can be set up for a closer and My Wish, although campaigned mostly at a mile, has shown he stays 1800m, and even 2000m judging by his short-head defeat over that distance in the 2025 Hong Kong Derby.

LM: He still has some improving to do before you would say he belongs at that level, but if Colourful King keeps progressing, an overseas campaign might become as much about necessity as ambition.

Colourful King has run some good races over 1200 metres, but as his career has progressed it has become increasingly obvious that 1000 metres is his sweet spot. All six of his career wins – four in Hong Kong and two in Australia pre-import – have come over 1000 metres, yet Hong Kong offers only two Group races over the Sha Tin straight at that distance all season.

David Eustace has already admitted the programme is “quite limiting” for a horse like him and says “the straight is perfect for him”. Zac Purton has even drawn the comparison with Little Bridge, who graduated from Sha Tin’s straight course to win the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2012.

Which Jockey Is ready To Make A Leap Up The Championship Standings?

MC: Let’s start with the obvious: Brenton Avdulla is a better jockey than his 16th place in last season’s jockeys’ championship suggests. He managed just 21 wins in 2025/26, down from 47 and a fourth-place finish the previous season, and before that 33 wins and a top-ten finish in his first full season 12 months earlier. Avdulla is a former Sydney champion and his style should, in theory, suit Hong Kong – so why the slide? In short, support: mainstays Tony Cruz and John Size slipped away, and opportunities dried up with them. Jockeys have bounced back from worse, though, and if Avdulla can broaden his book of trainers – particularly among the locals – he can climb back into the top ten.

DM: Jimmy Orman has the profile of a jockey quietly and determinedly building a foundation that can take him into the top six or seven in the Hong Kong jockeys’ premiership this season. That will not be an easy feat, given the jockeys ahead of him last season, but he has shown already that he is capable of reaching that level. 

He arrived in Hong Kong on a short stint in February 2025 and ended up with a very respectable 13 wins. That earned him a full season last term and he rewarded the faith placed in him with a solid 32 wins. That total positioned him 10th in the standings, level on wins but one place ahead of the ‘Magic Man’ Joao Moreira (through a countback to second-placed finishes), who rode a whirlwind three months to close out the season. 

Orman achieved 24 wins at Sha Tin last season and with the expectation that his solid return will have earned further backing, if he can increase support at Happy Valley, he should improve his tally beyond 40 wins for the term and climb the standings. 

LM: After last season, there is certainly room for improvement for Matthew Chadwick. He managed only 12 winners, down from 35 the season before, and remarkably just one of those came after Christmas.

We already know he is capable of better than that. He rode 55 winners when he won the Tony Cruz Award in 2021/22 and has been one of Hong Kong’s leading local riders for a long time.

Chadwick spent part of the off-season back on the Gold Coast, where his career began, saying he wanted to reconnect with the horses and rediscover some enjoyment in racing. The results there were modest – seven rides for one winner – but it wasn’t really the point. Perhaps the more important questions come now.

Does he return hungrier? Does he need to work harder for support and broaden the number of trainers using him? And after a season where the winners almost completely dried up in the second half, can he build some early momentum and make himself an easier booking?

Who Is Your Way-Too-Early Derby Prediction?

MC: There’s a gap in John Size’s otherwise extraordinary CV – an overseas Group 1 win, as I mentioned elsewhere – but there’s another area where he’s never matched his old rival John Moore: developing a high-class, pre-raced import. Size is an expert at taking PPGs from a rating of 52 to the top, but bringing in a horse with established form and having it adapt off a high rating is a different challenge – and it’s a challenge he’s mostly shunned. Monopolistic – yet to be given a Hong Kong name, brand number M066 – is one of five horses to arrive in Hong Kong from the Queensland Derby, and is a rare chance for Size to work with a ready-made BMW Hong Kong Derby prospect.

DM: An interesting batch of British and Irish imports landed in Hong Kong at around 8pm on August 15, and among those were the Group 3 winners Generic and Alparslan, both of which were big money buys with the Classic Series in mind. Generic, bought by Werther’s owner Johnson Chen and now with first-season Hong Kong trainer James Cummings, is my very early pick for the Derby in March, given his tantalising profile as a proven 2000m runner wrapped-up in Group 1 form. 

Generic was trained by Andrew Balding in England and has raced only four times for two wins and two seconds, showing an upward progression. The Group 1 tie-in form includes a second to Constitution River, the colt regarded the best three-year-old in Europe after his G1 French Derby and G1 Eclipse Stakes victories. Meanwhile, Generic’s Royal Ascot win in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes saw him defeat the subsequent G1 Saratoga Derby winner Glacius. His sire Kameko’s progeny tend to like quick going, and he was already a gelding before he ever raced, which must be a plus.

LM: Mr Incredible hasn’t raced beyond 1200 metres, but neither had Invincible Ibis at this stage last season. Hello, recency bias. This is a way-too-early prediction, after all.

Brett Crawford’s four-year-old finished last season with three wins from four starts and saved his best for last, stepping into Class 3 and putting away older rivals by a length and three-quarters as a heavily-backed 1.2 favourite. That came three days after the Champion Griffin nominees were announced, and had it come earlier he surely would have been in that conversation.

What appeals most is how easily he does everything. He settles, travels kindly and has a serious turn of foot, while Crawford believes he will stretch out in trip no problem and plans to resume him over 1400 metres.

The Derby trip remains the obvious question, but the obsession with whether a horse will ‘get the distance’ can be overplayed. Class will take you a long way, and Mr Incredible has shown enough of that already in what is shaping as a deep crop of four-year-olds.

Which Jockey Would You Like To See On A Short-Term Stint?

Michael Cox: The Jockey Club’s recruitment was far more dynamic last season, even if it lacked balance at times – particularly during an overcrowded run into the winter features. What it could do with now is a dash of diversity, particularly from lesser-known racing jurisdictions. Indian champion Suraj Narredu would bring fresh storylines and new fans to Hong Kong racing; he’s a classy ambassador for the sport, but more importantly, he can flat-out ride.

The Jockey Club has also erred in not blooding young Sydney stars for late-season stints in recent years. Late April through to the season finale is exactly the window for a rising Australian jockey to test the waters. Zac Lloyd is the obvious target, though the club may already have missed him. Elsewhere in Sydney, Dylan Gibbons and Tyler Schiller could make their mark, or – for something more proven – established names with Asian experience like Tim Clark and Rachel King.

DM: Cieren Fallon would be an interesting jockey for a short-term stint. At 27 he’s still on the up, hungry for success, yet experienced enough to have nine seasons, three Group 1 wins and more than 600 wins already under his belt. He has good hands, is strong, and his tactical nous has improved each season, making him a jockey with top-level potential. He’s also a driven character and not shy in coming forward, making him as good a fit for the tough Hong Kong circuit as any untried rider.

Last year he had 136 wins in Britain and is currently fourth in the jockey standings with 66 wins (88 for the year to date). In May this year he won 21 races from 79 rides.

Fallon is tied to the powerful William Haggas stable through much of the year, but once the British turf season ends in late October, he would likely be available until around February time when his boss would no doubt want him riding out in his Newmarket string in readiness for the English spring campaign. 

LM: Billy Loughnane has been the most talked-about jockey of the British Flat season. Now come to Hong Kong and do it on a Class 5 dweller from a wide gate at Happy Valley.

There is a bit of tongue in cheek in that, but Hong Kong’s city circuit asks a very different set of questions of a jockey. The bends are tight – so is the racing – the straight is short and races can unfold at such a relentless tempo that if you give up your position at the wrong moment, you probably will not get it back.

There is often very little margin for error, no matter the class of horse. Get caught three-wide, shuffled too far back because of a mid-race slow down or wait a fraction too long for a gap that never presents itself and the horse underneath you might not have enough ability to bail you out.

Loughnane has shown he can handle the big stage in Britain. I’d love to see how quickly he could work out Happy Valley.

What Headline Do You Most Want To See This Season?

MC: ‘Romantic Warrior retires sound’

This one could come soon. Scans last week revealed an abnormality in a joint, and the horse has already come back from surgery once. Romantic Warrior has won more prize money than any racehorse in history and achieved more than enough already – if the next time fans see him is at a retirement ceremony in the Sha Tin parade ring, there will be little disappointment, and more than a hint of relief.

DM: ‘Ka Ying Rising Does It Again’

The world’s top sprinter is an incredible athlete, one of the sport’s all-time greats, and his achievements are a joy for any genuine horse racing fan. A second Everest win would add to his already mighty reputation, and perhaps silence most of the remaining naysayers once and for all – though there will always be cynical contrarians, no matter what – so that’s the one I’m really hoping for. After that, a win at Conghua and another Hong Kong Sprint, please.

LM: ‘Jerry Chau lands first Group 1’

After 48 winners and a first Tony Cruz Award last season, simply adding a few more winners to the tally is not the next step for Chau.

He has already won at Group 2 level. Now it is about getting on the right horse in one of the big ones and converting. A first Group 1 would feel like the natural next breakthrough. ∎

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