The biography of the great Black Caviar was memorable for many reasons, not least its description of her knockabout trainer Peter Moody, whose old school soul masks a sharp racing mind.
Moody tells a great story about the time he won the Caulfield Cup in the restrictive COVID era. In Victoria, particularly, it seemed no one was allowed to see anyone. He had a small bunch of mates come over to celebrate that night. As Moody likes to say, one parked their car at the town’s doctor, another outside the butcher, one fellow at the baker, and so on. No one was any the wiser.
Moody celebrated with a cigarette or ten. The Black Caviar book nominated the best way to identify Moody among the dark chaos of a morning trackwork session in Melbourne. “The red sniper’s spot of his lit cigarette.”
Here, it’s hard to know how many bungers Moody has churned through before the most eagerly anticipated clash in Australian racing in 2026. He’s found a small crevice where the tunnel spills out for horses to enter the parade ring at Royal Randwick. No security will suspect anything untoward here. Truthfully, no one even suspected Moody would bother being here for the day.
But as his star mare Sheza Alibi waltzes up the runway for a showdown few thought we’d get at the first Group 1 of the Sydney season, the Winx Stakes, Moody’s red sniper’s spot is just a couple of metres away.
The smoke had only started about eight days earlier when he was thinking about bringing Sheza Alibi to Sydney to clash with Autumn Glow, the queen of Australian racing prepared by the country’s best trainer, Chris Waller, who carefully cuddled the career of Winx.
Autumn Glow’s only defeat in 12 starts came at the end of her previous campaign when stretched to 2000 metres for the first time. She didn’t see out a strong trip. Waller was humbled, and maybe slightly embarrassed about her unbeaten run ending, he issued a social media apology for getting her program wrong.
Of course, he didn’t need to. But we might be about to realise the defeat to Sir Delius was the best thing which could happen for the rest of us because there’s no unbeaten record to preserve like Moody had to with the incomparable Black Caviar.
Moody took Black Caviar far and wide – she raced in four different Australian states – and of course the infamous Royal Ascot win in 2012. On that day, Black Caviar wasn’t right. She ran on nothing but heart, and stopped abruptly strides before the post as jockey Luke Nolen tried to ease her down. She hung on to win by a pimple. The more she won, the more suffocating the public pressure became. Waller knows it well, nursing Winx to four Cox Plates and 33 straight wins before her swansong in 2019.
Moody’s career has had many twists and turns since the Black Caviar days, but his wisdom and wit remain. On Sheza Alibi’s surprise trip to Sydney: “She’s a racehorse and she’s ready to race, so we will.”
A few steps from Moody, a top Group 1-winning trainer casts his eye over both prized fighters and observes there’s still remnants of Autumn Glow’s wintry coat. “If they don’t beat her today, good luck for the rest of the spring,” he muses.
Spoiler: they didn’t beat her.
From the moment the gates opened for the Winx Stakes, Moody probably wished he was a real life sniper. Autumn Glow launched from the stalls and Sheza Alibi – having drawn barrier one for Nolen with three Waller-trained horses directly to her outside, a familiar refrain in these weight-for-age contests in Sydney – dwelt.
Like a clown in sideshow alley, Autumn Glow’s rider James McDonald quickly swivelled his head to the right to see where his main rival was: stuck back on the fence. There’s a reason he’s the world’s best jockey.
By the time he idled Autumn Glow down near the line, McDonald had another peek, this time over his right shoulder. This one was more performative – you can only get that close to me? – as his wonder mare cruised to victory. Sheza Alibi – no doubt better suited to a trip slightly beyond 1400 metres – ran superbly in second, more than a length from the winner.
“As James just said, people come to the races because they want to see these great horses racing each other,” Waller said. “We don’t always want the clashes, but it is important for the sport. We have come out of round one pretty well, but I’m pretty sure there will be round two or round three.”
Said Moody: “This was a big step up and she was competitive against the best. She’s run very well, she just found the other mare too good. Plain and simple. It’s created great interest. I’m very proud of her.”
Autumn Glow takes out the G1 Winx Stakes 🏆@mcacajamez @cwallerracing @WorldPool pic.twitter.com/VFV8NaxHHV
— Australian Turf Club (@aus_turf_club) August 22, 2026
The end of a horse race is a curious scene, because unlike a footballer or basketballer, there’s no locker room or designated space to retire to for the owners. As Autumn Glow’s owner John Messara shuffled onto the stage for the presentation, Sheza Alibi’s owner, cattle farmer Fred Noffke, made a point to stand nearby to take it all in rather than choose anonymity. So too Moody’s wife Sarah. They realise what it means for a sport, increasingly being shunted to the fringes, to have two super horses clashing. Noffke, who bought Sheza Alibi for $10,000 in an online sale, magnanimously congratulated Messara after the presentation.
“I wish it was announced a lot earlier … they were coming, because we could have made a real hullabaloo about it,” Messara said.
“They’re two great mares. Because it was only announced (early) this week, there’s been a build-up, but nothing like it could have been. These are the sort of matches that need to be built up and developed over time in the press, on TV and all over the place.”
So now for the $20 million question: will we have that build-up for The Everest?
Waller and Messara will spend the next week mulling whether to freshen Autumn Glow up for a drop to 1200 metres and showdown with Ka Ying Rising. So dominant is the Hong Kong superstar, trying to defend his Everest crown, there is not a single other Australian-trained horse locked in for the race yet, which is less than two months away. It’s never been like this in the race’s decade-long history, but The Everest hasn’t seen a horse like Ka Ying Rising either. It’s impossible to escape his shadow from 7000 kilometres away.
With no unbeaten record to protect, it could be Autumn Glow, even if her best distance might be from 1400 metres to a mile. What better legacy to have than being the horse which took down Ka Ying Rising?
“I am afraid of Ka Ying Rising,” Messara confessed. “He’s run 1.07 for the 1200. He’s super, super smart. He’s the best sprinter in the world. I am frightened of him, but if there’s a horse around that could give him a shake, it might be her. If something happens to go wrong or any sort of a setback, we’re there.”
Autumn Glow’s logical target would be another race on Everest day, the A$5 million King Charles Stakes over a mile. It could be the next chapter in a new rivalry with Sheza Alibi, which would command a significant spotlight. But the more curious clash would be with Ka Ying Rising.
It’s hard to see many other horses lining up for The Everest, a ridiculously successful concept which was always vulnerable to a dominant sprinter scaring off rivals. The Everest might never have taken hold if it was dreamt up in the Black Caviar era. Ka Ying Rising will need 11 opponents and 11 sets of connections to channel Moody, Australian horse racing’s great antagonist. Who are they going to be?
Maybe one is Golden Slipper winner Guest House, who will resume in the San Domenico Stakes at Rosehill and have the three-year-old stallion-making sprints such as the Golden Rose and Coolmore Stud Stakes top of the agenda this spring.
“The Everest is certainly being considered,” Guest House’s co-trainer Michael Kent jnr said. “The horse has to prove he’s right to put his hand up for a test like that.
“As for Ka Ying Rising, we won’t be worried about one horse this far out, particularly given he’s in Hong Kong. There’s so much (water) that needs to go under the bridge for him to even get out here. If he does arrive in good order, he’ll be incredibly hard to beat. But we’re looking forward to the challenge.”
Moody knows all about challenges. He took on one when he didn’t really need to, and the sport was better for it.
Waller rarely drinks let alone smokes, so there’s no chance in hell of using a red sniper’s spot of a lit cigarette to identify him at trackwork. He’ll be thorough, analytical, emotionless in his decision about where Autumn Glow goes next.
But deep down, he’ll know the best marksman only needs one shot. If he wants to take it, then we’re in for one hell of a ride. ∎
