2026 Hong Kong Derby: Power Rankings, March 3
Sunday’s Hong Kong Classic Cup delivered another shake-up to the rankings, leaving the Derby picture clearer for some, more complicated for others, and producing a new top pick three weeks out from the BMW Hong Kong Derby.
Last Sunday’s Hong Kong Classic Cup posed more questions than it delivered answers from a Derby perspective.
The clear top two in the previous rankings – Little Paradise and Numbers – were unplaced and it has brought a major shake-up to our top 14.
The list is a consensus from a panel of Idol Horse Hong Kong racing experts. The rankings will be updated once the final field is announced and again after the pre-race barrier draw.
1. Invincible Ibis ↑
Previous Ranking: 5
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 94
HK Record: 9: 4-3-1
Returns to top spot after his Classic Cup second, a big rebound from his Classic Mile sixth that Mark Newnham had been quick to forgive.
What encouraged the trainer most was the way Invincible Ibis found the line at the end of 1800m after being ridden closer from a low draw, and that now shapes as a key Derby clue. If he draws low again, expect similar tactics. If he draws wide, he is likely to be ridden back.
2. Numbers ↓
Previous Ranking: 1
Trainer: Frankie Lor
Rating: 100
HK Record: 4: 2-0-1
Gives up Loses top spot after his fourth in the Classic Cup, but it was by no means a poor run and he still looks on song for the Derby. His front-running style added an intriguing layer to the speed map and helped ensure a genuine tempo, but it left him vulnerable late as his lesser-fancied stablemate swept past inside the final 100m.
3. Stormy Grove (NEW)
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: Frankie Lor
Rating: 98
HK Record: 7: 2-1-1
Surges into Derby contention after his shock Classic Cup win at long odds, settling back from a wide draw, traveling sweetly under Harry Bentley and swooping late to score by a length. While some of his key rivals head into the Derby open to a change of tactics, Bentley believes the key to his chances is to “switch him off thoroughly” after earlier attempts to ride him closer blunted his finish.
4. Little Paradise ↓
Previous Ranking: 2
Trainer: Jimmy Ting
Rating: 103
HK Record: 10: 6-1-1
Touted as a star after his dominant Classic Mile win, but his Derby credentials took a dent when he was slow away under Vincent Ho, then overraced before finishing eighth in the Classic Cup. That was the worst Classic Cup finish by a Classic Mile winner in the last 20 years, with Voyage Bubble in 2023 and Thumbs Up in 2009, both sixth, the only other Mile winners in that span to miss the top four. Jimmy Ting said Little Paradise “was leaning back in the starting gates” and that Ho had called for the starter to hold them, but it came too late, while the trainer also noted the horse was more nervous than usual beforehand.
5. Patch Of Cosmo ↑
Previous Ranking: 6
Trainer: Manfred Man
Rating: 89
HK Record: 14: 5-0-1
Climbs a spot and is trending nicely toward the Derby after a lengthy injury-enforced absence, putting a horror Classic Mile run behind him when flashing home late from ninth under new rider Dylan Browne McMonagle.
6. Top Dragon ↑
Previous Ranking: 7
Trainer: Chris So
Rating: 87
HK Record: 13: 3-4-2
Bypassed the Classic Cup after contesting the Year Of The Horse Cup over a mile at the Chinese New Year meeting, where he struck traffic at the top of the straight and finished second, following a fifth in the Classic Mile when interference in the home stretch cost him momentum. Trainer Chris So says the Derby remains an option, and with the rating to qualify he could head there next start. His consistent form around this group all season suggests he would not be out of place if he lines up.
7. Beauty Bolt ↓
Previous Ranking: 4
Trainer: Tony Cruz
Rating: 88
HK Record: 9: 2-3-2
Handled the Classic Mile well from an on-pace position, sticking on for third, but the rise in distance brought a change of tactics in the Classic Cup. Ridden more quietly in midfield, he only battled away in the straight and finished seventh, the first time in his career he has finished worse than fourth. The worry now is whether the Derby’s 2000m will stretch him.
8. Dazzling Fit ↑
Previous Ranking: 10
Trainer: David Eustace
Rating: 80
HK Record: 11: 3-1-2
Showed he is on the right path and did enough in the Classic Cup to earn his Derby shot, sticking on for fifth after racing wide throughout near the speed and finishing only three lengths off the winner.
9. Emblazon (NEW)
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: Cody Mo
Rating: 88
HK Record: 8: 5-1-0
A winning machine this season, he made it five wins from six starts for the season on Classic Cup day and has climbed 39 points in the ratings, but all of that winning form has come at 1200m and 1400m. That leaves a distance query hanging over him heading straight into the Derby, and his case would have looked stronger had he backed up in Sunday’s Class 2 over 1800m to press his claims with the handicappers.
10. Super Express ↑
Previous Ranking: 14
Trainer: John Size
Rating: 76
HK Record: 7: 2-5-0
Steps out fourth-up for the season on Sunday and has yet to miss the frame in seven starts, while still looking far from the finished product in his races, which makes him an intriguing prospect going forward. He is not yet on a rating that looks strong enough to make the Derby cut, but a win, and a strong one, would push him firmly into the conversation.
11. Pope Cody (NEW)
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: Me Tsui
Rating: 76
HK Record: 15: 1-1-1
Does not bring the class or profile that immediately leaps off the page as a Derby contender, but his closing sixth in the Classic Cup was an encouraging run. Jockey James Orman came away hopeful it would be enough to earn him a place in the field and feels the extra 200m would really suit.
12. Seraph Gabriel
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: David Eustace
Rating: 79
HK Record: 3: 0-1-0
Time is running out for David Eustace’s other Derby hopeful, who needs to rebound from his last-start 12th at the Derby distance when he was under pressure a long way from home. He also still has to trial to the satisfaction of the stewards before being allowed to race again, which leaves his path to the Derby looking increasingly narrow.
13. Pocketing (NEW)
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: David Hayes
Rating: N/A
HK Record: 0: 0-0-0
Yulong has a new horse in Hong Kong, though few would know it yet. The Australian import only had his first gallop on February 23 and still needs to trial before being cleared to race, but the intent to make the Derby is there. David Hayes told Idol Horse that trial will come on Thursday and will dictate whether those Derby plans stay alive. Officials also confirmed that connections paid the $HK140,000 late Derby entry fee last week. The former Richard and Will Freedman-trained gelding arrives with 17 starts for five wins and five placings, and one formline alone keeps him relevant in the Derby picture: a G2 Tulloch Stakes win over Numbers at the Derby trip.
14. Juneau Pride (NEW)
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: John Size
Rating: 81
HK Record: 15: 3-6-3
Another John Size-trained runner yet to race beyond 1400m, but one who has built a consistent profile. After carrying around 135lb in five runs this season, he dropped sharply in the weights to 119lb when stepping into Class 2 on Classic Cup day and closed late to get within a narrow margin of Emblazon.
