2026 Hong Kong Derby: Power Rankings, February 24
Idol Horse’s Hong Kong racing experts provide their top 14 contenders for the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby.
2026 Hong Kong Derby: Power Rankings, February 24
Idol Horse’s Hong Kong racing experts provide their top 14 contenders for the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby.
24 February, 2026The path to the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby is becoming narrower.
Sunday’s Hong Kong Classic Cup at Sha Tin looms as a key test of 14 Derby hopefuls, three weeks out from the ‘once in a lifetime’ race.
The Classic Cup’s 1800 metres will be a new challenge for many of the leading contenders – 10 of the final field of 14 have never raced beyond 1600m.
1. Numbers ↑
Previous Ranking: 2
Trainer: Frankie Lor
Rating: 100
HK Record: 3: 2-0-1
Frankie Lor’s stayer takes top spot courtesy of his G3 Centenary Vase win at the Classic Cup distance.
He adds an intriguing element to the speed map in Sunday’s Classic Cup through his natural on-pace style, a weapon few of his key rivals possess, and it could make him a real force as the Derby picture sharpens.
2. Little Paradise ↓
Previous Ranking: 1
Trainer: Jimmy Ting
Rating: 103
HK Record: 9: 6-1-1
Loses number one seed for now but the talent is obvious. His Classic Mile win had a few observers labeling him the next big thing in Hong Kong racing. Maybe he is, but is he a miler? He faces a fresh test on Sunday when stretching to 1800m in the Classic Cup, but should start warm favorite in the second leg of the Classic Series. If he can add the Classic Cup to the Mile, he stays on a path toward the rare sweep across all three legs and could join the likes of Rapper Dragon and Golden Sixty.
3. Sagacious Life
Previous Ranking: 3
Trainer: Pierre Ng
Rating: 97
HK Record: 4: 2-0-0
Disappointed his rider Zac Purton when fourth in the Classic Mile and he will need to change that opinion in the Classic Cup if he wants to keep the leading rider in the saddle for the Derby.
Trainer Pierre Ng has pointed to the proven stamina shown pre-import, including wins up to 2400m, as the key to unlocking further improvement as the Derby nears.
4. Beauty Bolt ↑
Previous Ranking: 5
Trainer: Tony Cruz
Rating: 88
HK Record: 8: 2-3-2
Continues his climb up the rankings, rising a spot after a tough, on-pace Classic Mile run from barrier 12, where he fared best of the on-pacers to cling on for third as Little Paradise and Infinite Resolve dashed through late.
He has shown tactical versatility throughout a consistent eight-start Hong Kong career and has the look of a typical Tony Cruz-trained talent on a big-race trajectory, even if he is not attracting the same fanfare as some of his peers.
5. Invincible Ibis ↓
Previous Ranking: 4
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 91
HK Record: 8: 4-2-1
Seems to have left the conversation a little and continues his slide after sitting atop the list pre-Classic Mile, only to finish sixth from near last as favorite in a run that divided opinions.
Trainer Mark Newnham was forgiving of the effort, which also marked the first time in his career he has missed the placings. The Classic Cup now provides the opportunity to prove he is still on track toward the grand final in the Derby.
6. Patch Of Cosmo
Previous Ranking: 6
Trainer: Manfred Man
Rating: 84
HK Record: 13: 5-0-0
Stays at six. Endured a horrid trip in the Classic Mile where he struck plenty of bad luck in the home straight yet still stuck on well late. He remains a classy type among his peers and the Classic Cup should reveal more about his Derby credentials.
7. Top Dragon
Previous Ranking: 7
Trainer: Chris So
Rating: 87
HK Record: 13: 3-4-2
Will bypass the Classic Cup after racing in the Year Of The Horse Cup over a mile at the Chinese New Year meeting, where once again he met traffic in the home straight and was beaten a short head into second.
Trainer Chris So says the Derby is still an option – he has the rating to qualify and could go there next start. His consistent form around his peers all season would have him well placed to run a bold race.
8. Infinite Resolve
Previous Ranking: 8
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 89
HK Record: 9: 1-4-2
Made a big leap up the page thanks to his second-place finish in the Classic Mile, and if Little Paradise sets the benchmark, then back-to-back seconds to him look like strong form.
Though yet to win beyond 1200m, those form lines keep him in touch and he has earned his spot in the conversation after rising 15 points in the ratings this season.
9. Lucky Sam Gor ↑
Previous Ranking: 10
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 76
HK Record: 15: 4-1-2
Has done a brilliant job to lift his rating from 45 to 76 this season, but that one more win to earn a Derby rating has not come yet after he finished fourth last start in a four-year-old mile where he was badly held up for clear running.
He backs up two weeks later into the Classic Cup on Sunday to prove his form and keep his place in the Derby picture.
10. Dazzling Fit ↑
Previous Ranking: 11
Trainer: David Eustace
Rating: 75
HK Record: 10: 3-1-2
Sneaks into the Classic Cup field after his third-place finish in a Classic Cup qualifier where he seemed to have every chance, but it did not do much to lift his Derby credentials. He will need to step up significantly on Sunday to enter the fray.
11. Aerodynamics ↑
Previous Ranking: 12
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Rating: 74
HK Record: 3: 0-1-0
First reserve for the Classic Cup after failing to earn points in the Class 3 1800m qualifier, where he was luckless when 11th behind Flow Water Flow. Even so, it was a somewhat encouraging sign that the extra distance did not look out of the question given he never raced beyond 1475m in South Africa. At this stage, though, the Derby may come too soon with a record of three starts for one second.
12. Flow Water Flow
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: John Size
Rating: 70
HK Record: 5: 2-3-0
John Size’s progressive four-year-old forces his way into the Derby conversation, even if his trainer has hinted the timing may be a touch soon. The upside is obvious, and he has done everything asked of him so far while climbing the ladder quickly.
Since debuting at Happy Valley he has posted two strong seconds at 1200m, closed well for second at 1400m at Sha Tin, then edged home over a mile before backing it up with an 1800m win.
13. Windlord ↑
Previous Ranking: 14
Trainer: Cody Mo
Rating: 80
HK Record: 2: 0-0-0
Never got a look in during the Classic Mile from a wide barrier, with the stewards’ report stating not only that he raced wide throughout, but that he raced “very” wide throughout. He has trialled well leading into the Classic Cup and an improved effort keeps him on track to play a part in the Derby.
14. Super Express ↓
Previous Ranking: 13
Trainer: John Size
Rating: 76
HK Record: 7: 2-5-0
Time is running out for this talented John Size trainee to make the cut for the Derby field, especially with some above him given the chance to push their ratings higher in Sunday’s second leg of the Four-Year-Old Classic Series.
