Hong Kong 2025-26 Season Preview: Trainers
Which trainer will rise up the ranks, who is under the most pressure, and who will be champion? Idol Horse’s experts analyse the Sha Tin training landscape ahead of a new Hong Kong season.
Hong Kong 2025-26 Season Preview: Trainers
Which trainer will rise up the ranks, who is under the most pressure, and who will be champion? Idol Horse’s experts analyse the Sha Tin training landscape ahead of a new Hong Kong season.
28 August, 2025Who Will Win The Trainers’ Championship?
Michael Cox: Boring answer, I know, but I am taking the safe route and banking on John Size to go back-to-back for the first time since he won a fourth consecutive title in 2018-19.
Last season the Australian bounced back from a disappointing campaign to secure his 13th championship from 24 seasons. Although the effort it takes to win a championship puts a dent in the trainer’s chances that following season, Size’s consistency has meant he is the only trainer to go back-to-back during his time at Sha Tin.
Size’s 69 wins was the lowest for a winning trainer since the season was extended to 88 meetings in 206/17 and least since Size trained 68 in 2015/16. That was the first of three championships for Size and there should still be some green shoots remaining for Size to make another deep run.
David Morgan: If anyone is going to rock the John Size boat it might be Francis Lui, champion trainer for the first time two seasons ago and a solid fourth last term with 50 wins. He appears to have a good mix of quality older horses with upside – among them the Derby winner Cap Ferrat, Packing Hermod and Packing Angel – as well as plenty of fresh blood, including 16 unraced PPGs, in a full stable of 70 horses.
Andrew Hawkins: It has been more than 20 years since Tony Cruz won the trainers’ championship, but he is a perennial contender. He finished equal fifth last year but his horses ran more than any other trainer, bar David Hayes. The one negative is that he doesn’t look to have much new blood in his stable, but he has plenty of horses that are either on winnable marks or they will be shortly. If he can start strongly, he can probably gain a second wind that will allow him to challenge for the title.
Jack Dawling: Everything David Eustace touched seemingly turned to gold last season and when you take a look through the artillery at his disposal this term, a title charge is surely not out of the question.
In terms of numbers, only David Hayes (73) has more horses than Eustace (71) as of August 26. Plus, the Englishman’s yard consists of a perfect blend of promising imports, unexposed youngsters, unraced PPGs and proven Group-level performers.
Which Trainer Will Be This Season’s Biggest Improver?
Michael Cox: There’s a lot to like about the positive way David Eustace went about his business in his first season and while I think the championship might be out of reach in his second season, I expect him to be at the pointy end of the standings.
The reason is Eustace’s bloodstock strategy, which focuses on lightly raced horses – sometimes from minor tracks – from both hemispheres. Eustace is securing horses with upside and seemed mindful of keeping his power dry in 2024/25.
As Jack alluded to, Eustace’s capacity stable has the right balance and plenty of upside: 27 of his horses are yet to start in Hong Kong (14 PPGs and 13 PPs), which should result in a strong back-end to the campaign.
Andrew Hawkins: Douglas Whyte had a quiet season last term, and not through lack of trying either. The 13-time champion jockey may need to remind Hong Kong owners why he is such a local legend, but he has a couple of nice imports like Shanwah that can help to put him back on the map. If he can secure a couple of stable transfers, he will be back on track and can rise through the rankings.
Jack Dawling: Cody Mo had a solid 2024-25 season, collecting 40 winners at an 8.5 per cent strike rate, and could take another step forward this term.
He claimed his first Group win with Pray For Mir and it would be no surprise to see a horse like Markwin potentially lead the line for the trainer this season. With 17 unraced PPGs and 68 horses at his disposal, Mo looks poised for another solid season of progression.
David Morgan: Danny Shum had a great start to last season, vying for the top spot and looking all set to be a premiership contender. But the wheels fell off from February onwards and he ended the term in 11th place with 40 wins, 29 behind the champion John Size.
The first 29 wins Shum had last season came from his first 251 runners while the remaining 11 came from 259. It’s hard to see him having such another bad dip in form, so expect his revitalised stable to be pushing the top five this season.
Which Trainer Is Under The Most Pressure?
Andrew Hawkins: Me Tsui’s performance last season – 18 winners from 292 runners – suggests he’s on the way out. His stable is down to 30 horses and there is little within his cohort to suggest he can turn it around. The 64-year-old is under plenty of pressure should he want to continue training in the future.
Jack Dawling: Jamie Richards lost more horses to other yards than any other trainer last season and he’ll be hoping to bounce back after those 22 stable transfers. The 35-year-old, whose top-rated horse is Young Achiever at 77, will also be wanting a positive start in his new yard after moving from the Olympic Stables to Sha Tin’s main training complex.
Michael Cox: The Jockey Club keeps hitting home runs on the trainer recruitment front – in the last three seasons Mark Newnham, Pierre Ng, Cody Mo and David Eustace have all hit the ground running. They are a tough act to follow for Brett Crawford, who moves into the complex vacated by Jamie Richards at the Olympic Stables. And if the success of recent recruits isn’t enough, James Cummings will start next season and is sure to be met with instant support – especially given he has a year to focus on bloodstock. Every first-year trainer gets a chance to be the ‘shiny new thing’ but Crawford’s window to impress while he is centre of attention is a tight one.
David Morgan: Richards and Crawford will be under intense scrutiny, for the reasons outlined above, but Pierre Ng must have a bit of pressure on him as well this term. Ng made a sensational start to his training career and got to within one win of being champion trainer in only his second season. His third campaign was a little underwhelming though.
Granted, a drop off could be expected, given that his horses were all out in the 2023/24 season and cyclical regeneration of the stable was required. But Hong Kong is a ruthless environment and with so many big name owners entrusting their horses to the young handler, everything he does will be magnified. Where he disappointed last term was in failing to take horses to the next level and win big races: prime example being Galaxy Patch, a horse many expected to be a serious Group 1 challenger last term. An early Group race win would erase the genesis of any doubts among fans and owners.
What Headline Would You Like To See?
Andrew Hawkins: “Three Trainers Still In Championship Contention Heading Into Final Meeting” – Some of the best Hong Kong moments away from the big races comes with live championship races at the end of the season. Who can forget Dennis Yip securing the championship in the last race of the season at Happy Valley in 2013? It happens with the jockeys, too – Douglas Whyte reeling in Brett Prebble comes to mind. If nothing else, it offers a talking point when enthusiasm is waning at the end of a long, arduous season.
Michael Cox: “Local Trainers To Be Given 12 Month ‘Study Tour’ Option Before Starting Career” – James Cummings has been given 12 months to ready himself for a 2026/27 debut but why should’t local trainers be given the same opportunity? Giving trainers a chance to spend time in foreign stables would only add to the depth at Sha Tin.
David Morgan: “Hong Kong Jockey Club Grants Licence To Its First Woman Trainer” – Female trainers have been at the top of the sport around the world for decades, but not in Hong Kong where a woman has not yet been given an opportunity to train in the city.
Jack Dawling: “David Eustace In Dreamland With Royal Ascot Winner” – After David Eustace’s brother, Harry, celebrated his second Royal Ascot winner of the week with Time For Sandals in this year’s Commonwealth Cup, their father James set out a challenge for his lads. Harry, he told the ITV cameras, “has to try and win a Melbourne Cup”, while David has “now got to emulate his uncle, who trained a Royal Ascot winner from Hong Kong.” David’s uncle, David Oughton, enjoyed success with Cape Of Good Hope in 2005, and it would be a fantastic story to see him continue the family tradition. ∎
