Venue: Nakayama
Date: April 19
Distance: 2000m
Value: ¥434,000,000 (about US$2,800,000)
The Satsuki Sho dates back to 1939 and is the first leg of the Japan Racing Association’s (JRA) Triple Crown, the 2,000 Guineas equivalent, but unlike the original ‘Guineas’ in England, this contest is over 2000m rather than a mile. The G1 NHK Mile Cup for three-year-olds in May provides an alternative for speedier types.
Eight horses have won the Satsuki Sho and then gone on to complete the Triple Crown by winning the Tokyo Yushun (Derby) and the Kikuka Sho (St Leger). St Lite was the first, in 1941, and the latest was Contrail in 2020; recent notables are Deep Impact in 2005 and Orfevre in 2011.
Lane’s First Satsuki Sho?
Damian Lane has enjoyed some huge wins in Japan in recent years, not least the two grand prix races, the G1 Arima Kinen and G1 Takarazuka Kinen with Lys Gracieux, and the G1 Tokyo Yushun with Tastiera.
But Tastiera in the Derby is his only Japanese classic win to date. In fact, Lane was aboard ninth-placed Hrimfaxi in the Satsuki Sho of 2023 when Tastiera was second to Sol Oriens. That was the second of only two rides the Australian has had in the race so far, though, and his first brought second-place on Salios, half a length behind the subsequent 2020 Triple Crown hero Contrail.
If Lane can win this one with probable favourite Cavallerizzo, he will become the fifth non-Japanese jockey to win the race, the first being Brett Doyle in 2002 aboard No Reason, and the others being Mirco Demuro – four times a Satsuki Sho winner – Christophe Lemaire and Joao Moreira.
Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, A Blessing Or A Curse?
Silk Racing’s Cavallerizzo earned juvenile championship honours when winning Japan’s biggest two-year-old race, the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity, in December. But since the Futurity was inaugurated in 1949, only five horses have won that and then gone on to win the Satsuki Sho. And only one has achieved that feat this century, Logotype in 2012 and 2013.
Logotype is in fact one of only four Satsuki Sho winners this century to have even contested the Asahi Hai Futurity. But that quartet does include last year’s Satsuki Sho hero Museum Mile, who was second in the Futurity two starts prior. Still, being the best colt at a mile in December doesn’t often equate to being the best at 2000m in April.
What About The Hopeful Stakes Then?
The G1 Hopeful Stakes over 2000m is the premier end-of-year staying test for Japan’s two-year-olds and seven Satsuki Sho winners have come through that test, including five that pulled off the double, Narita Taishin was first in 1993, Agnes Tachyon won the classic in 2001, Victoire Pisa in 2010, Saturnalia in 2019 and Contrail a year later. The other two, Victory and Gold Ship, were both second in the Hopeful before winning the Satsuki Sho.
That bodes well for last December’s Hopeful protagonists, the winner Lovcen and the runner-up Forte Angelo, the latter of which has not raced since.
Peintre Naif’s Long Lead-In
Speaking of not racing since: Christophe Lemaire’s mount Peintre Naif has to defy what has gone before him this century. The Carrot Farm-owned colt looked high-class last year when winning his maiden second-up and then triumphing in the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes, a race that Croix Du Nord, Equinox and Contrail won in recent years. But that was way back on November 24, a gap of 146 days.
Peintre Naif was due to resume in the Yayoi Sho in March, but discomfort in his near hind scuppered that plan and he is left to go into the classic without a race in five months. No Satsuki Sho winner this century has had such a break between races and that setback might cost Peintre Naif. Then again, what a feat if he does win.
Interestingly, 18 of the last 26 Satsuki Sho winners were last start winners, so at least that is on Peintre Naif’s side, and a further four headed in off a second placing. But not a single 21st Century Satsuki Sho winner has gone into the race off a previous start that was earlier than the Hopeful Stakes in late December.
Will Sirius Shine For Classic-Seeking Tsumura?
Jockey Akihide Tsumura enjoyed his biggest day in the saddle when he guided the outsider Ten Happy Rose to victory in the G1 Victoria Mile two years ago. That was his first and to date only Group 1 win, but the 41-year-old heads into Sunday with a big chance of nailing a first classic victory.
At one point Tsumura had two barrels loaded and ready to pick from when the Takahisa Tezuka-trained Audacia won the G2 Spring Stakes, following on from stablemate Realize Sirius’s G3 Kyodo News Hai victory. But a setback has ruled Audacia out of the Satsuki Sho, leaving Realize Sirius as Tsumura’s mount and the stable’s big hope.
Those two lead-up races are key preps for the Satsuki Sho along with the Yayoi Sho, Wakaba Stakes, Deep Impact Kinen, Keisei Hai and the Mainichi Hai. Every winner this century bar the two first-up winners – Hopeful Stakes victors Saturnalia and Contrail – have gone through at least one of those races. But of all the lead-up races, the Kyodo News Hai is the one that’s most fashionable: seven of the last 14 Satsuki Sho winners have contested the race en route to classic victory; five won both and two were second in the prep. If Realize Sirius maintains the trend, Tsumura will be a popular winner. ∎
