Which Horse Is The Most Likely Winner?
Michael: In a wild, wide-open year, I am going with the horse that has had the smoothest and most conventional Derby preparation: Invincible Ibis. As soon as the Mark Newnham-trained gelding broke through for his maiden win in October, every aspect of the horse’s preparation has been geared around arriving in peak form and fitness on March 22. About the only thing that has gone wrong was Zac Purton opting not to ride the horse throughout the series, but even then, connections got the soft hands, poise and exceptional horsemanship of Hugh Bowman instead – the perfect rider for a horse that needs those qualities. A rough run in the Classic Mile was followed by a steadily closing second in the Classic Cup. There is something to be said for a smooth route into a big race, and few, if any, of his Derby rivals can make the same claim.
David: Numbers has a lot going for him and shapes as the most likely candidate in an open field. The gelding had a lot of racing before import, including seventh in the G1 Victoria Derby, fifth in the G1 Australian Derby and second in the G1 Queensland Derby. A similar level of form has been good enough to win a Hong Kong Derby in the past. Add to that four sound runs in Hong Kong for two wins and Numbers heads into the 2000m feature as a tough, consistent, in-form horse with proven high-class quality: just what you need in a Derby. His fourth in the Classic Cup should not count against him either, in fact it could be a positive: jockey Derek Leung now knows that if he is to lead again, he can’t use as much energy in the early part of the race and must judge the tempo to wind it up gradually down the back for a stamina test.
Luke: Stormy Grove has the profile of a Derby winner because he has a twin weapon most of his rivals can’t match: an elite turn of foot plus the adaptability to make a sustained, long run. Two starts ago he produced a sub-22 second closing split in a slowly run mile, then in the Classic Cup, run at a more genuine tempo, he showed he is not just a one-burst horse by sustaining a strong final 600m. Just as importantly, there is clarity around how he will be ridden. Trainer Frankie Lor and jockey Harry Bentley have said there will be no change in approach. Riding him closer to the pace earlier in his Hong Kong career did not work. He is at his best when ridden patiently. In a Derby that can come down to which horse has the sharpest finishing burst, Stormy Grove’s last two starts have shown he has what it takes.
Who Is Under The Most Pressure Going Into Sunday’s Hong Kong Derby?
David: Pierre Ng must be feeling the pressure given the way this Classic Series has gone so far. The trainer was a rookie sensation and in his second season finished a one-win second in the trainers’ premiership. He received strong support from owners, but that was two years ago and since then he has not been able to source and develop a horse into a consistent high-class player. Sagacious Life looked like he might be the one when the Brazilian Group 1 winner landed two of his first three starts and was Zac Purton’s pick to ride through the series. But fourth place in the Classic Mile was followed by a dismal last of 14 in the Classic Cup along with the news that the gelding’s known roarer issues – a breathing condition – had arisen in that race. Purton has gone and Ng will be hoping Sagacious Life can lift to reignite the buzz around his stable which is currently 15th in the premiership, a long way off the championship pace.
Luke: Jimmy Ting must be feeling the heat. Little Paradise is the best horse he has trained and he knows the impressive Classic Mile winner’s Derby chance may hinge as much on temperament as talent. Until his latest race in the Classic Cup, Ting had described the gelding as an easy horse to train and a horse that had given the stable no real issues. Then came race day: Little Paradise went into the Classic Cup as favourite but came away with questions to answer. The horse many had likened to the great Golden Sixty missed the kick, overraced under Vincent Ho, and finished a disappointing eighth. Ting’s explanation did little to settle the issue. He said the horse leaned back in the starting gate, that Ho had called for the starter to wait, and Little Paradise was more nervous pre-race than usual. There’s been some barrier schooling since, but all that leaves Ting under real pressure heading into the biggest race of his career. This horse could be the one that elevates Ting and his mid-to-low ranking stable into the big-time, but history shows that when the smaller trainer doesn’t deliver, the horse more often moves to one of the big guns. Everyone will be watching to see if Ting can produce Little Paradise in the right frame of mind to deliver on the talent they saw unleashed in the Classic Mile. That’s pressure.
Michael: In Hong Kong racing it is rare that track conditions or bias become part of the conversation, pre- or post-race. But this season Stephen Higgins and his track team have come under some scrutiny by pundits for the state of the A course – the ‘true’ rail position, usually used on big days. To the club’s and Higgins’ credit, a thorough review was held into how the fence turned into a slow lane on international day. But the chatter among trainers, jockeys and punters is high each time the rail returns to A – where it will be on Sunday – the question being, will the rail be “off”? As Shane Dye pointed out in this week’s Idol Thoughts, Derek Leung has some serious decisions to make when he gets to the home straight aboard likely leader Numbers – where will the best ground be?
Which Outsider Do You Think Is Most Likely To Cause An Upset?
David: Seraph Gabriel is without a win in three Hong Kong starts but presents as a fascinating dark horse, not least because he now has the Zac Purton factor on his side. The champion jockey has won the Derby twice before with latecomers to the series and he picks up this ride because James McDonald is grounded by flight disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Seraph Gabriel has finished down the field in two starts since import but sandwiched in between those was a close second under McDonald, conceding 9lb to the winner, Lucky Sam Gor. That effort had Derby prospect written all over it and more so when Lucky Sam Gor was fourth behind subsequent Classic Cup hero Stormy Grove in a restricted Class 3, conceding 8lb. Seraph Gabriel couldn’t build on that last time when 12th over 2000m, but he had to work some to the first turn from a wide gate before settling back. He has since had a fair barrier trial ‘win’ and the Derby distance is no issue, given his narrow second over the trip at Royal Ascot pre-import. Purton might have fallen on his feet again.
Luke: Sagacious Life is the horse the market may have had enough of too soon. Plenty has gone wrong, and there are still real questions around him, especially the breathing concerns tied to his roaring condition. His recent form has not inspired confidence either. But if there is a case to be made, it starts with the trip. Pierre Ng has spoken all preparation as though 2000m is where this horse gets his chance. He has not won at the distance, but his pre-import form says stamina is certainly not a problem after a win over 2400m in the G1 Derby Paulista in Brazil. Tactically, he is one of the more interesting runners in the race. He has shown he can race handily at a mile, and after looking a difficult ride for Zac Purton in the Classic Cup, Karis Teetan may be better off allowing him to stride and hold a position near the lead. With so much having gone against him, he could easily be the horse the market overlooks.
Michael: The barrier draw will shape the top end of the market and if Dazzling Fit draws low he could scrape into the top five in betting. But it is most likely that Numbers, Little Paradise, Invincible Ibis, Stormy Grove and Patch Of Cosmo will all start shorter than David Eustace’s horse. Idol Horse columnist Shane Dye highlighted Dazzling Fit’s run in the Classic Cup – he was wide throughout and kept giving like a horse that will run the 2000m. The Derby is a race with an honour roll of champions, but mixed in between are some serious upsets. It can be a rough race where tempo, interference and plain old bad luck can produce a wild result. Top Dragon is another that could be squeezed out to big odds and is capable of causing a blowout result. And what about the wild card of Emblazon and his 1400m form?
Who Would Derby Victory Mean The Most For?
David: Hong Kong Derby success would be career-shaping for Dylan Brown McMonagle in the Hong Kong context. The young Irish champion has enjoyed a good first spell in the city, making connections with top trainers and bagging 10 wins so far from 127 rides. But winning the Derby would set him up for future success in Hong Kong in a scenario similar to Maxime Guyon 15 years ago. Guyon was a young jockey on a trajectory to the very top in Europe when he nailed the 2011 Hong Kong Derby on Ambitious Dragon, but that win ensured Guyon’s name was known in Asia, too, and his profile was boosted massively in Hong Kong. Like the Frenchman, victory for Brown McMonagle on Sunday would set him up as an in-demand rider for years to come.
Michael: A win for any trainer or jockey that has never won the race before is career-altering. But for a young trainer like David Eustace, it would take his profile to another level and give him ammunition to head back to the bloodstock buying season with confidence. Eustace’s bloodstock strategy has been exceptional and he has actively sought the style of high-end PPs that have not been in vogue. Buying those types is a highwire act and not every PP is going to work out. The Englishman has experienced this already with some of his high profile buys failing to make an impact, but that is bound to happen, after all, only one horse wins the Derby. This week’s added bonus scheme for high end PPs will help Eustace’s cause, but nothing would help as much as a Derby win with Dazzling Fit or the likely longshot Seraph Gabriel.
Luke: After going down by a short head with My Wish in last year’s Derby, a win this time for trainer Mark Newnham with Invincible Ibis would feel especially significant. He knows how hard these chances are to come by, and to go from that heartbreaking near miss to winning this season’s Derby while in the hunt for the trainers’ premiership would underpin a remarkable season. Hong Kong Derby wins can make careers and Newnham’s already prominent profile would receive a mighty boost that would cement his emerging status as one of Hong Kong’s elite operators. ∎
