2026 Hong Kong Derby: Power Rankings, Final Field
The Idol Horse Hong Kong racing experts rank the 14-horse final field for the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby.
2026 Hong Kong Derby: Power Rankings, Final Field
The Idol Horse Hong Kong racing experts rank the 14-horse final field for the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby.
16 March, 2026The field for the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby is now set, but the result remains wide open.
This is not a year with a clear consensus number one. Of the final 14, over half of the field has strong claims yet there is a question mark over almost every major contender, whether it be the distance, run style and race shape, the preparation or simply whether they can produce their best on the big day.
That is why Thursday’s barrier draw looms as a major factor. In such an even Derby, the draw and the tactics that follow will play the decisive role.
Our Power Rankings will be updated again following the barrier draw, with the final list to be published on Friday ahead of Sunday’s highly anticipated race.
1. Invincible Ibis —
Previous Ranking: 1
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Rating: 94
HK Record: 9: 4-3-1
Smoothest preparation of any horse in the race. Hugh Bowman and Mark Newnham have built him up beautifully through the distances and he arrives on grand final day off the back of an excellent second in the Hong Kong Classic Cup.
There is a sense of timing. Professional, progressive and proving himself to be a horse of genuine quality at the right time.
Showed important tactical versatility in the Classic Cup – like many contenders, Thursday’s barrier draw is key.
2. Numbers —
Previous Ranking: 2
Trainer: Frankie Lor
Jockey: Derek Leung
Rating: 100
HK Record: 4: 2-0-1
The proven 2000m horse in the field and the likely pace-setter, his on-pace style is a genuine asset in a race where some of his main rivals still have to answer tactical and stamina questions.
He is one for the old-school PPs import crowd. The key now is whether Derek Leung gets the ride exactly right if he finds himself out in front, which is likely.
3. Stormy Grove —
Previous Ranking: 3
Trainer: Frankie Lor
Jockey: Harry Bentley
Rating: 98
HK Record: 7: 2-1-1
A left-field contender who has suddenly found his groove at the perfect time. His Classic Cup win was huge and suggested a horse with genuine talent, not just one who pinched the right race on the right day.
The question is whether he needs things to go his way to show that best. If the Derby is run to suit, he is a major player again.
4. Little Paradise —
Previous Ranking: 4
Trainer: Jimmy Ting
Jockey: Vincent Ho
Rating: 103
HK Record: 10: 6-1-1
In many eyes, he is still the best horse in the race. The Classic Cup was a mess from the outset: he got warm beforehand, over-raced, struck trouble and never really had the chance to show his best.
Even so, he still found the line and still has plenty of supporters heading into the Derby. His turn of foot is the best weapon in the race, but the 2000m remains the question.
5. Patch Of Cosmo —
Previous Ranking: 5
Trainer: Manfred Man
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Rating: 89
HK Record: 14: 5-0-1
A terrific training performance from Manfred Man to bring this horse back from injury and have him competitive in a Derby campaign. His Classic Cup placing showed he still has the quality to mix it with the best of this crop.
He could be the forgotten horse in the race. The key is the start: he can be a touch tardy away, and in a Derby that could leave him with a lot to do.
6. Top Dragon —
Previous Ranking: 6
Trainer: Chris So
Jockey: Andrea Atzeni
Rating: 87
HK Record: 13: 3-4-2
Connections have changed course and decided to press on to the Derby, and he goes there off an unconventional preparation. He has not followed the standard path, but he is tough, in form and has more substance than some might think.
Andrea Atzeni picks up the ride late. He might not be the sexy horse in the field, but he has earned his shot and brings a bit of grit and quality.
7. Dazzling Fit ↑
Previous Ranking: 8
Trainer: David Eustace
Jockey: Luke Ferraris
Rating: 80
HK Record: 11: 3-1-2
Idol Horse columnist Shane Dye identified him as the run of the race in the Classic Cup, and there is a strong case for that view. He did plenty of work in the run and still stuck on well enough to suggest he is a genuine sleeper pick for the Derby.
He shapes as a value play for those looking beyond the obvious names. It is also a huge opportunity for Luke Ferraris, and for David Eustace in only his second season in Hong Kong.
8. Emblazon ↑
Previous Ranking: 9
Trainer: Cody Mo
Jockey: Jerry Chau
Rating: 88
HK Record: 8: 5-1-0
Comes into the race off high-quality 1400m form and is one of the true wild cards in the field. Some judges have him much higher than this on pure winning quality, and it is hard to knock a horse who keeps getting the job done.
The distance is the great unknown, but he has upside and current form on his side. He has been elevated into the field ahead of higher-rated horses whose form has gone cold.
9. Pope Cody ↑
Previous Ranking: 11
Trainer: Me Tsui
Jockey: James Orman
Rating: 76
HK Record: 15: 1-1-1
He does not jump off the page on profile, but his Classic Cup run was good enough to keep him in the conversation. He closed off nicely there and shapes as a horse who should appreciate getting out to the Derby trip.
He lacks the class and hype of some of the others, but he is honest and has earned his place. In an open year, that counts for something.
10. Regal Gem (NEW)
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trainer: Frankie Lor
Jockey: Alexis Badel
Rating: 85
HK Record: 12: 3-2-1
Earned his place in the field by showing he is not just a sprinter, running on strongly from the rear into the placings over a mile in a Class 2. That at least gave some substance to his Derby case.
He comes in from outside the rankings and remains an outsider, but he did enough late to suggest this shot is not completely out of left field.
11. Sagacious Life ↑
Previous Ranking: Outside the top 14
Trainer: Pierre Ng
Jockey: Karis Teetan
Rating: 97
HK Record: 5: 2-0-0
Back into the rankings after sneaking into the field, but his preparation has lost momentum. Zac Purton coming off and Karis Teetan taking over is a notable shift, and the roaring issue remains a concern.
Is he really as poor a hope as this ranking suggests? Maybe not. He was the early number one seed for a reason, but since then his form has tapered off and he doesn’t look to be heading the right way.
12. Beauty Bolt ↓
Previous Ranking: 7
Trainer: Tony Cruz
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Rating: 88
HK Record: 9: 2-3-2
His chances took a hit when James McDonald opted to get off him and ride Seraph Gabriel instead. That only sharpened the existing knock on him, which is whether he truly sees out 2000m.
Before the Classic Cup he had done little wrong and looked tactically versatile. That seventh was the first time he had missed a placing, and there are still judges who think J-Mac has got this call wrong.
13. Seraph Gabriel ↓
Previous Ranking: 12
Trainer: David Eustace
Jockey: James McDonald
Rating: 79
HK Record: 3: 0-1-0
A puzzling booking call for many, with James McDonald siding with David Eustace’s second string rather than Beauty Bolt. On raw talent and looks, there is a horse here who could measure up.
But on his last-start effort, he simply does not look in the race. He is one of the hardest horses in the field to line up.
14. Juneau Pride —
Previous Ranking: 14
Trainer: John Size
Jockey: Keith Yeung
Rating: 81
HK Record: 15: 3-6-3
Has had plenty of chances to elevate himself through 15 Hong Kong runs and has only just scraped into the field off a mark of 81. He is consistent enough, but there is a sense others have shown more upside.
The smallest horse in the race, and probably one whose owners are simply delighted to be in the Derby parade ring. Respect the consistency, but he still looks up against it.
