G1 Guide & Tips: Arima Kinen (Grand Prix)

Race Information

History

There is no bigger betting race on earth than the Arima Kinen. Japan’s most powerful wagering event, the December Group 1 generated a staggering ¥49,097,246,400 in turnover in 2021.

One of two fan-voted Grand Prix races on the JRA calendar – the other being June’s Takarazuka Kinen – the Arima Kinen carries the same massive prize fund as the Japan Cup. But while the Japan Cup captures global attention, the Arima Kinen commands the undivided focus of Japan’s racing public like no other race can.

First run in 1956 as the Nakayama Grand Prix, the race was renamed a year later in honour of its founder, Yoriyasu Arima. Ten of the maximum 16 runners are selected by fan vote from JRA-trained horses, with the remaining places open to NAR or foreign-trained runners.

Only six horses have won the Arima Kinen twice. The most recent was the extraordinary Orfevre, who triumphed in 2011 before closing his career with a breathtaking eight-length victory in 2013. This year, Regaleira will attempt to join that exclusive group by going back-to-back.

Statistics

Top Contenders

REGALEIRA (Suave Richard x Roca); 4YO

Trainer: Tetsuya Kimura

Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Biggest win: G1 Arima Kinen (2024)

Already a three-time G1 winner across three consecutive seasons, Regaleira arrives seeking to defend her Arima Kinen crown. Her resume includes victories in the 2023 Hopeful Stakes, the 2024 Arima Kinen and, most recently, this year’s Queen Elizabeth II Cup. She is expected to start favourite.

History is not entirely on her side. While six horses have won the Arima Kinen twice, only four have achieved the feat in consecutive years – and none were fillies or mares.

Since Daiwa Scarlet broke a 37-year drought for females in 2008, only four fillies or mares have won the race, Regaleira among them. Chrono Genesis was the only filly or mare to attempt a successful defence, finishing third in 2021, with relatively few females continuing to race into their following season.

Regaleira’s 2025 campaign has been markedly stronger than last year’s. After returning from a fracture layoff to finish well beaten in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen, she has since strung together two convincing victories: the G2 All Comers on her autumn return and the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup in November. Unlike 12 months ago – when she arrived winless for the calendar year and with several high-profile defeats as favourite – she now comes in with momentum and expectation.

Regular rider Keita Tosaki, who partnered her in last year’s Arima Kinen, has opted instead for Danon Decile. That decision opens the door for Christophe Lemaire – who rode Regaleira to victory in the 2023 Hopeful Stakes – to reunite with her.

DANON DECILE (Epiphaneia x Top Decile); 4YO

Trainer: Shogo Yasuda

Jockey: Keita Tosaki

Biggest win: G1 Tokyo Yushun (2024)

Keita Tosaki and Danon Decile have already enjoyed international success together, with Tosaki steering him to victory in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic, a race that produced his now-famous post-race quote, “very, very horse.”

After that win in Dubai, Danon Decile struggled to adapt to European conditions when fifth in the G1 Juddmonte International at York in August, but returned home with an encouraging third in the Japan Cup. That race has long been a key pointer to Arima Kinen success and his profile fits the pattern well.

MUSEUM MILE (Leontes x Museum Hill); 3YO

Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi

Jockey: Cristian Demuro

Biggest win: Satsuki Sho (2025)

This year’s G1 Satsuki Sho winner heads to Nakayama with a new rider in Christian Demuro, who arrives fresh from winning the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes a week earlier.

Museum Mile was last seen finishing second in November’s G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn), forming a notable three-year-old one-two with Masquerade Ball. A victory here would further enhance the reputation of this Classic generation.

His affinity with Nakayama is already well established. He has won twice at the track, landing both the Satsuki Sho and September’s G2 St. Lite Kinen.

Three-year-olds have won five of the past 10 Arima Kinens, including last year’s winner Regaleira. Among those winners, only Efforia and Equinox arrived via the Tenno Sho (Autumn). 

The step up to 2500 metres is a new test, but if he handles the distance, Museum Mile could earn a victory that places him among the elite.

MEISHO TABARU (Gold Ship x Meisho Tsubakuro); 4YO

Trainer: Mamoru Ishibashi

Jockey: Yutaka Take

Biggest win: Takarazuka Kinen (2025)

The winner of this year’s first Grand Prix, the G1 Takarazuka Kinen, Meisho Tabaru brings proven top-level form into the Arima Kinen.

Earlier in his career he shaped as a sharp, free-running type, but a training stint alongside Soul Rush in Dubai appears to have refined his racing style. Returning to Japan for the Takarazuka Kinen, he produced a far more composed front-running performance, decisively defeating Bellagio Opera to claim his first G1 victory.

He followed up with a sixth-place finish in the Tenno Sho (Autumn), where he set a slow tempo before being out-sprinted late. That run can also be viewed as a useful rehearsal in pace control ahead of the longer Arima Kinen distance.

There are pedigree positives, too. His sire Gold Ship finished in the placings in the Arima Kinen for three consecutive years following his 2012 victory, and Gold Ship’s progeny have generally excelled over longer distances at Nakayama.

The key question is pace pressure. Mystery Way, who led throughout to win the G1 Copa República Argentina, is also expected to push forward. If the lead is contested, Meisho Tabaru’s ability to remain relaxed may prove decisive.

JUSTIN PALACE (Deep Impact x Palace Rumor); 6YO

Trainer: Haruki Sugiyama

Jockey: Taisei Danno

Biggest win: Tenno Sho Spring (2023)

The six-year-old colt, winner of the 2023 G1 Tenno Sho (Spring), will make his final career start in this year’s Arima Kinen before commencing stud duties at Arrow Stud next season.

He comes into the race off a fifth-place finish in the Japan Cup, having finished third in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) prior to that. Over the past two years he has continued to deliver consistently solid performances in middle and long-distance Group 1 races against older horses. This will be his fourth consecutive Arima Kinen appearance. His previous finishes read seventh, fourth (as favourite) and fifth – reliable but just shy of a breakthrough.

Consistency, however, can also be framed as narrowly missing a win. Having finished third in both the Takarazuka Kinen and the Tenno Sho (Spring), and enjoying his strongest season since 2023, the question is whether he can add another Group 1 title alongside Taisei Danno. A victory would almost certainly enhance his future stud value.

Expert Analysis & Selections

MASANOBU TAKAHASHI

Angle: Stalkers

Stalkers – that is horses that race just off the pace, forward of midfield – have historically performed well in the Arima Kinen. It is a difficult race for deep closers unless they are positioned more prominently than usual or begin their runs early. Justin Palace’s fourth-place finish as favourite in 2023 was a textbook example of a run delivered too late.

While I rate last year’s top finishers Regaleira and Danon Decile highly, another I am keen on is Shin Emperor. He disappointed in the Japan Cup, fading from fourth to eighth, but the shorter Nakayama straight may suit him better.

Tastiera also showed strong Nakayama form when second in the 2023 Satsuki Sho, and a repeat of that performance would put him in the mix.

Selections: #9 Danon Decile, #5 Regaleira, #2 Shin Emperor, #16 Tastiera

HOMAN

Angle: Front-runner advantage

As in his G1 Takarazuka Kinen victory, a lack of pace could again play into Meisho Tabaru’s hands. One of the few natural on-pace runners, he could control proceedings after drawing barrier six.

He will be partnered by Yutaka Take, one of the sport’s great exponents of pace judgement when riding front-runners.

While Meisho Tabaru disappointed at Nakayama in the G1 Satsuki Sho, four of his five career wins have come on right-handed tracks. Now a more mature racehorse, Nakayama may suit him better this time.

Selections: #6 Meisho Tabaru, #5 Regaleira, #9 Danon Decile, #2 Shin Emperor

STEVEN HO

Angle: Nakayama form and stamina

Nakayama is a demanding circuit that favours experience and stamina. Regaleira, last year’s winner, has a favourable draw and reliable form. Museum Mile benefits from both a weight advantage and an inside barrier.

Admire Terra showed Arima-style stamina when third in the G1 Kikuka Sho before winning at his next start and then again in the G2 Meguro Kinen.

Meiner Emperor, who won the G2 Nikkei Sho over this distance two starts ago, could be an overlooked contender.

Selections: #5 Regaleira, #4 Museum Mile, #13 Admire Terra, #12 Meiner Emperor

JAYSON KWOK

Angle: Four-year-old dominance

The Arima Kinen favours younger horses and favourites. The last 10 winners have all been aged five or younger.

I have reservations about both three-year-olds: Museum Mile still has stamina to prove after his Tokyo Yushun defeat, while Excite Bio faces a class test. Among the five-year-olds, Tastiera is out of form and the others look like longshots. That leaves the four-year-olds.

Danon Decile was a solid third in the Japan Cup despite encountering traffic in the final 200 metres. That run came after two overseas starts, and improvement can be expected here.

Selections: #9 Danon Decile, #5 Regaleira, #13 Admire Terra, #3 Justin Palace

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