Racing Roundtable: 2025 Australian Spring
On the eve of the first Group 1 of the Australian spring, Idol Horse’s experts discuss the big storylines, choose their potential breakout stars and ask, ‘is Ka Ying Rising a lock in the Everest?’
Who Is Under The Most Pressure This Spring?
Michael Cox: As the gap between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’ continues to widen, it is harder than ever for smaller trainers to survive. The days of Australian racing being the home of the battler could be over as Chris Waller and Ciaron Maher swallow up the prize money around feature races.
Of the 95 biggest races in Australia in the 2024-25 racing season, the two biggest trainers in Australian racing won 34 of them.
While Waller and Maher are locked in an arms race – a numbers game that extends beyond racing and into real estate – smaller stables are struggling to survive.
Then again, it could be worse than being a battler – what about the aspiring mega stables that can’t keep pace? Training partnerships like Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald and Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr are also playing a similar numbers game and need top level success to justify their expenditure come sales season.
Andrew Hawkins: This is shaping as the spring in which Rosehill Racecourse loses its position as one of Australia’s premier tracks. The Golden Eagle has been shifted to Randwick and the Australian Turf Club (ATC) is struggling to find a sponsor for the autumn’s Golden Slipper. Could the world’s richest two-year-old race be next to head across town?
Costa Rolfe: James McDonald has absorbed more pressure than Manikato during his dazzling career, but with the ‘world’s best jockey’ tag comes great responsibility. J-Mac will undoubtedly be aboard many favourites this spring but at some stage, will he reach a point where he is stretched too thin trying to keep people happy? Damian Lane, Blake Shinn and Mark Zahra continue to prove themselves reliable options for the big players when called upon in the top races and might be able to commit to plum rides where McDonald cannot.
Masanobu Takahashi: As Sydney continues to push for international participation, Racing Victoria faces renewed questions over its ability to effectively promote itself. With Japan specifically, last season saw two runners travel for the Golden Eagle in the spring and two more for The Championships in the autumn. By contrast, Melbourne only managed to attract two runners for the spring.
One of the key factors is the increasing reluctance to target Melbourne due to the stringent vet checks, highlighted most recently by the forced withdrawal of Jan Brueghel. That said, for Japanese horses in particular, the decisive factor appears to have been Obamburumai’s Golden Eagle success.
Nevertheless, reputations spread quickly through word of mouth among trainers and owners. If this year’s international contenders can return home with a positive experience, then in the years to come, bigger names may well be tempted to show interest.
Which Horse, Trainer Or Jockey Will Be The Spring’s Breakout Star?
Andrew Hawkins: Dylan Gibbons is already a Group 1-winning rider, but this might just be the spring where he becomes a mainstay of the big-race ranks. He missed much of the start of the year due to a shoulder reconstruction, but he has looked rejuvenated upon his return. There are few better riders of stayers in the country and, if he gets the right opportunities, he might be on the cusp of taking the next step in his career.
Costa Rolfe: Can a gelding spoil the party in this spring’s ‘stallion-makers’? Peter Snowden’s Raging Force beat up on his winter opposition but this son of Cosmic Force looks good enough to mix it with the country’s very best sprinting three-year-olds, especially with question marks hanging over the quality of the cohort. High-class horses have emerged from that part of the Sydney winter before. The 1400m of the G1 Golden Rose is a query but the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes might just be his race.
Masanobu Takahashi: Tempted is already a highly regarded filly but I believe she will further enhance her reputation in the spring. Her performances in the Reisling Stakes, Golden Slipper and the Percy Sykes were outstanding and she has the type of light, dazzling turn of foot that it takes to win at the top level.
Michael Cox: Young Newcastle trainer Nathan Doyle is on an upward trajectory and the type of support that could see him break into the big time this spring. He also has a marquee sprinter, Private Harry – currently second favourite for the Everest.
Ka Ying Rising Will Likely Start A Dominant Everest Favourite … Which Horse Or Situation Could Bring Him Undone?
Michael Cox: No sensible pundit will argue that Ka Ying Rising isn’t the best credentialled sprinter in the world right now but there are still some unknowns. Travel brings its own challenges and the Sha Tin-to-Sydney trip has rarely been attempted, and never been successful.
Ka Ying Rising has done things that have never been seen at Sha Tin – not by Silent Witness, Sacred Kingdom or any of the top class sprinters Hong Kong has produced before or since – but what David Hayes’ horse has not seen is a rain-affected track, at least on raceday. He did comfortably win a trial on a soft track at Sale before he left for Hong Kong, but that’s very different from race pressure.
You should never knock a horse for something he hasn’t proven he can’t do, but could Sydney’s often inclement weather produce a track that leaves Ka Ying Rising spinning his wheels?
Andrew Hawkins: The only thing standing between Ka Ying Rising and conquering Everest, in my mind, are the Chris Waller mares Lady Shenandoah and Autumn Glow. And there is every chance that neither will line up in The Everest.
Lady Shenandoah likely finds herself in the Golden Eagle and it’s just about the path that gets her there. Initially, that was set to see her step up in trip towards a mile, starting with this weekend’s Winx Stakes at 1400m, but now she is set to begin her campaign over shorter distances. Autumn Glow would probably be a more suitable filly to head in that direction, but Waller has suggested she targets the Epsom Handicap before the Golden Eagle and it would be a tough ask to drop back to 1200m after the Epsom.
Costa Rolfe: Jimmysstar was outstanding throughout the autumn, his four-run campaign bookended by dominant Group 1 wins as Ciaron Maher’s sprinter stamped his progression from occasional tease to finished product. Superb fresh in the Oakleigh Plate, it was his powerful victory in the G1 All Aged Stakes over the Randwick 1400m that truly brought the now six-year-old into The Everest frame. In a field that will be hyper-Ka Ying Rising focused, the stalking Jimmysstar is good enough to exploit any sign of late weakness in the Hong Kong superstar.
Masanobu Takahashi: I believe the key lies in whether he can remain composed upon arrival in Sydney and when he enters the racecourse. That will be the ultimate hurdle. No matter how calm a horse may be, there are always challenges with a first overseas trip, and even Romantic Warrior’s Australian campaign was far from straightforward. He at least had the Turnbull Stakes as a chance to “adjust” but Ka Ying Rising will not have the benefit of a local prep run. His biggest opponent will be himself.
Who Is A Foreign Raider To Watch?
Michael Cox: Willie Mullins won’t be burdened with Vauban this year, who found form and a much-needed turn-of-foot after switching to Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott in the autumn. Watch for him to continue to shine. Maybe Mullins stayer Absurde could be the one to watch. He showed in last year’s Cup that he can produce the type of closing sectionals to take advantage of local conditions.
Andrew Hawkins: Pin Oak Stud principals Jim and Dana Bernhard and trainer Bill Mott deserve plenty of credit for rolling the dice with Parchment Party. There have been a few American-trained horses who have been touted as Melbourne Cup prospects before, most notably 2004 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Better Talk Now, but none have lined up at Flemington. It will be historic should he make it there, no matter how he performs.
Costa Rolfe: One of Japan’s Cups contenders in Golden Snap will generate more than her fair share of interest in Melbourne this spring. Trained by Katsunori Tanaka, the mare has shown decent staying ability to date, with all four career wins coming over 2400 metres.
Perhaps of broader interest however is Golden Snap’s pedigree: the striking grey is a daughter of talented rogue and now Umamusume ‘star’ Gold Ship, and has already been the subject of considerable attention from fans of the hit Cygames franchise.
One of the more infamous chapters in the Gold Ship legend is of course what is now known as the ‘12 billion yen incident’, when the notoriously headstrong entire reared at the start as the 1.9 favourite in the 2015 Takarazuka Kinen, so obliterating approximately 12 billion worth of betting tickets. Here’s hoping for a clean Caulfield Cup getaway for Golden Snap! In terms of any inherited ‘mad streak’, the mare has displayed excellent race day manners to date, and the stable has indicated that she only fires up off the track if provoked.
Not yet qualified for Flemington, at this stage a guaranteed Melbourne Cup berth would hinge on a top-eight showing at Caulfield.
Masanobu Takahashi: The only Japanese horse to have declared for the Golden Eagle is Panja Tower, but he is a genuine contender. He possesses a reliable turn of foot, and if he is able to navigate the final bend at Randwick smoothly, he can be expected to finish strongly down the straight.
While this year’s NHK Mile Cup has not been widely regarded as a particularly strong edition, at this stage he can be considered on par with the 2023 winner Obamburumai.
In addition, Golden Snap is another intriguing Japanese runner. In Japan, her strength is often described as “limitless stamina.” Should the Caulfield Cup turn into a gruelling contest, she may be the one still standing at the finish.
Who Is Your Best Pre-Post Feature Race Pick?
Andrew Hawkins: I’d love to find something at big odds for the Melbourne Cup but, instead, I’m siding with a horse who is already equal favourite. I was keen on Sir Delius in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last year and, after his big Australian debut in Brisbane, I believe he’ll be competitive in whatever he contests at a middle distance and beyond this spring. Nevertheless, the Melbourne Cup is the race for him.
Costa Rolfe: Chris Waller looks to have another extraordinary spring hand spearheaded by weight-for-age star Via Sistina. Establishing a pecking order for Waller’s trio of uber talented four-year-old mares is less clearcut however: Lady Shenandoah, Autumn Glow and Aeliana all look to be serious prospects. The latter heads Caulfield Cup betting following an arrogant Australian Derby win but Waller has cautioned that the daughter of Castelvecchio is unlikely to pursue a Cups campaign. Without looking too far ahead, Aeliana may just have the ability to upset her more fancied stablemates fresh up in the G1 Winx Stakes this weekend.
Michael Cox: Once upon a time a dual Oaks winner like Treasurethe Moment would be a lock for a Cups campaign but, in 2025, big money options abound in Sydney for a four-year-old mare.
Her owners Yulong have an abundance of talent to aim at middle distance and staying contests – think Via Sistina, Moira, Anisette, Full Count Felicia, Anisette, Coco Sun, River Of Stars, Angel Capital, new acquisition Trinity College and three-year-old Vinrock – and I’d like to see Treasurethe Moment aimed at the Golden Eagle, a race that has fast become one of the most intriguing on the global calendar.
Masanobu Takahashi: Unbeaten Vinrock has set the Golden Rose as his spring target, but I firmly believe he will lead the three-year-old division as the star of the spring season. His racing style is consistent and reliable, and the 1600m distance is unlikely to pose any problems. Including and beyond the Golden Rose, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which he drops out of the spotlight.
What Is The Headline You Want To See?
Michael Cox: “Zac Purton A Hometown Hero As Ka Ying Rising Prevails” — Racing is inherently unfair in the sense that Purton’s level of fame in his home country will change depending on the Everest result. Purton will be inducted into the Australian Racing Hall of Fame on August 31 but an Everest victory will bring him mainstream media attention that no other race other than the Melbourne Cup could.
Andrew Hawkins: “Moonee Valley Announces Redevelopment On Hold” — The final Cox Plate around the traditional Moonee Valley circuit will be held in October before the track is reoriented. It is going to completely change the dynamic of racing at the track and it will never be the same. The redevelopment won’t be stopped, but one can dream.
Costa Rolfe: “’12 Billion Reparation Incident’: Golden Snap Atones For Sins Of The Father” — Golden Snap lands big bets to win the Melbourne Cup, so redeeming the Gold Ship bloodline on the world stage!
Masanobu Takahashi: “Next Big Payday: Melbourne Cup Winner Eyes Japan Cup” — Australian horses have not contested the Japan Cup since Boom Time in 2017. Winners of the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate or Melbourne Cup are offered lucrative bonuses in addition to prize money. How about considering this as your next option? ∎
