Sunday’s FWD Champions Day in Hong Kong had something to prove from a racing perspective – and while the definitive jury will be out until December, initial indications are that it will have regained its standing on the international stage.
Last year, for the first time since global Group 1 races were ranked a decade ago, two of the three features on FWD Champions Day did not make the Top 100 races in the world, as ranked by the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA) handicappers. Only the QEII Cup qualified for the 2024 list in equal 36th.
Since the initial list in 2015, the QEII Cup, the Champions Mile and the Chairman’s Sprint Prize appeared together in the Top 100 in 2016, 2017, 2022 and 2023.
The Chairman’s Sprint Prize was missing from the inaugural list, which was partially responsible for its move from February in 2016 and then led to the creation of Champions Day in 2018. Since then, it missed the Top 100 in 2021 before being omitted last year.
The QEII Cup was missing in 2018 and 2020, while the Champions Mile was excluded in 2019 as well.
So what was the basis for the omission of the Chairman’s Sprint Prize and Champions Mile last year? And did they do enough on Sunday to earn a berth in the Top 100 for 2025?
The rating for every Group 1 is determined by the first four horses in each race and their peak international rating for that calendar year.
Perhaps the biggest surprise last year was the Champions Mile, especially in hindsight given the top four consisted of three winners of the race – Beauty Eternal, Red Lion and Golden Sixty – and Hong Kong Mile winner Voyage Bubble.
Sadly, given his illustrious career, it was actually Golden Sixty who weighed down the overall rating, perhaps highlighting a flaw in methodology. Despite a career-high rating of 126, he only raced once in 2024 and he was well below his dazzling best.
At the end of 2024, Beauty Eternal was rated 117, Red Lion 114 and Voyage Bubble 120. Given the cut-off average was 115.5, it means that Golden Sixty rated 110 or below for that effort – well shy of his peak.
If his 2023 Hong Kong Mile win, which was only three weeks outside the assessment period, were considered instead, the 2024 Champions Mile would have rated 119.25 or equal 29th.
Therefore, it is simply an anomaly that the race missed the Top 100 last year.
Whether it can return to the list in 2025 is going to depend on what third Sunlight Power and fourth My Wish can do later in the year as their international ratings were 108 and 109 respectively going into the Champions Mile.
The Jockey Club will be desperately hoping that those two horses are legitimate challengers to Voyage Bubble’s crown as the city’s top miler and not merely horses who produced a one-off performance well beyond their ratings.
The Chairman’s Sprint Prize looks far more straightforward. The Hong Kong Sprint was rated equal 59th last year and the same trifecta from that race ran 1-2-3 on Sunday.
Defending champion Invincible Sage replaced the retired California Spangle in fourth and his current international rating is seven points shy of where the Al Quoz winner was last year, so he is another who needs to perform at a higher level throughout the year.
However, both Ka Ying Rising and Satono Reve look likely to rate above the 125 and 119 they recorded last year, which should ensure the Chairman’s Sprint Prize makes the list – especially if they perform as expected in overseas races later this year.
The QEII Cup should also make the list again given the international profiles of Tastiera, Prognosis and Calif. The performances of Ensued in the months ahead will determine exactly where it lands. ∎
