2025 Tokyo Yushun Power Rankings, April 18

Japan’s three-year-old picture will become even clearer this week when the first leg of the Japanese Triple Crown, the G1 Satsuki Sho (2000m), is run at Nakayama.

Since the Satsuki Sho, the equivalent of the 2,000 Guineas, was first run in 1939, a total of 24 horses have gone on to win the Tokyo Yushun.

The Satsuki Sho also offers priority entry into the Tokyo Yushun.

With only six weeks until the race that has produced stars such as Deep Impact, Special Week, King Kamehameha, Orfevre, Contrail and Do Deuce, we asked a panel of Japanese racing experts to rank the Derby contenders one to 18. We use these lists to create a top 18, in order. The experts will continue to track the horses and update lists at key times during the lead-up to June 1. 

1. Croix Du Nord

The unbeaten Croix Du Nord emerged as the pick of Japan’s 2024 juvenile crop when he won the G1 Hopeful Stakes over 2000m on December 28 and the form of that race is working out well. That was the colt’s third win, having opened his account with a ‘Newcomers’ win at Tokyo in June, followed by a November victory in the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai in which he defeated into second the highly-regarded Satono Shining. He will be a short-priced favourite for Sunday’s Satsuki Sho.

2. Satono Shining

It could be a big Classic season for trainer Haruki Sugiyama as he points Satono Shining towards the Satsuki Sho and Tokyo Yushun and his emerging filly Erika Express towards the Yushun Himba. Satono Shining won his ‘Newcomer’ nicely and was a fine second in a Group 2 next start behind Croix Du Nord. He has since impressed with a three-length win of the G3 Kisaragi Sho, defeating among others the Asahi Hai Futurity third Lance Of Chaos. The runner-up from that race, Lynx Tip, was a closing third in the G1 Oka Sho last weekend.

3. Eri King

Another colt unbeaten in three. Eri King’s form measures up closely to Croix Du Nord through the Hopeful Stakes runner-up Giovanni. Eri King had Giovanni in second place when winning the Nojigiku Stakes at Chukyo in September and again in the G3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes at Kyoto in November, both at 2000m. The son of Australian G1 winner Youngstar makes his 2025 debut on Sunday.

4. Giovanni

Another from the Sugiyama stable, Giovanni is one of the more experienced Derby prospects with a pair of wins bookending three second place runs that mark him out as one of the best of the crop. Those defeats came behind Eri King in the Nojigiku Stakes and the G3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes, and then he led the chase behind Croix Du Nord in the G1 Hopeful Stakes. He started 2025 with a Listed win over 2000m and looks a solid Derby type.

5. Fandom

A winner of all three starts to date, only one of our experts – Masanobu Takahashi – had him in our initial lists last month. After sweeping to a sensational victory in the G3 Mainichi Hai (1800m), though, he emerged as a big contender for the Tokyo Yushun. He will miss the Satsuki Sho and could point straight to the Derby.

6. Masquerade Ball

Disappointing 11th in the Hopeful Stakes is the only blip on a four-race record. Half-brother to the G1-placed mare Masked Diva and followed his Newcomer win with a good Listed success, defeating subsequent G2 Spring Stakes winner Piko Chan Black. Poor run behind Croix Du Nord but put that behind him to defeat the two-time winner Kalamatianos in the G3 Kyodo Tsushin Hai in February.

7. Lila Emblem

After winning his Newcomer at Kyoto in late October, Lila Emblem wasn’t seen again until the G3 Shinzan Kinen at Chukyo on January 13. He didn’t disappoint, though, winning by two and a half lengths from the Asahi Hai Futurity stakes fifth Arte Veloce. He was sent out as an even-money favourite for the G3 Mainichi Hai, but found little and disappointed in seventh.

8. Piko Chan Black

Gave his young trainer his first Graded Stakes win in the G2 Spring Stakes in mid-March. Previously had smashed his rivals with a seven-length Newcomer win at Fukushima in July, placed second to Masquerade Ball in the Listed Ivy Stakes, then struggled in the Hopeful Stakes.  

9. Faust Rasen

Little to write home about when 10th on debut but won his maiden second-up and then ran third in the G1 Hopeful Stakes at massive odds of 303.3. Showed that to be no one-off when winning the G2 Deep Impact Kinen over 2000m at Nakayama in early March, this time at odds of 16.9.

10. Admire Zoom

Do Deuce in 2021 was the last horse to win the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, Japan’s top two-year-old race, and then go and win the Derby, and connections of Admire Zoom have a decision to make as to whether the son of Maurice will go the Derby route or stick to a mile. He sat deep in the G2 New Zealand Trophy last weekend before sticking on for second behind Immigrant Song. It is expected he will run next in the G1 NHK Mile Cup three weeks before the Tokyo Yushun, but it would not be altogether unheard of for a horse to take in that race en route to the Derby – that double was achieved by King Kamehameha some 21 years ago and more recently by Deep Sky in 2008. 

11. Vincentio

Won first two races by narrow margins, both starts at 2000m. Went close again when stepped up in class and finished second to Faust Rasen in the G2 Deep Impact Kinen: led until headed leaving the back straight, rallied to press the leader down the home straight but was held at the line. His granddam is the exceptional mare Cesario, winner of the G1 American Oaks, who produced Epiphaneia, Saturnalia and Leontes.

12. Alohi Alii

Debuted November 2 with a 2000m Newcomer win at Tokyo and followed that two months later with a decent second to the smart filly Go So Far at Nakayama. Fine effort in G2 Deep Impact Kinen: last until driven forward from 700m out and skirted the field widest of all; kept on well for third, beaten a neck and a neck behind Faust Rasen despite that tough run. 

13. King Squall

A colt with plenty of upside. Raced handily and won really well on debut at Sapporo back in July. Wasn’t seen again until mid-March when he popped up in the G2 Spring Stakes and started the 3.8 favourite. He was only third to Piko Chan Black but showed enough to suggest there’s more to come.   

14. Nishino Agent

Took three defeats to warm up before he opened his account at start four in an 1800m Nakayama maiden in December. Benefitted from that experience when pitched into Pattern company next time and defied big odds to win the G3 Keisei Hai over 2000m at Nakayama on January 19. That was a first Graded race win for his young trainer. 

15. Arte Veloce

High class form in the book in four starts at a mile or shorter. A G3 winner at a mile in the Saudi Arabia Royal Cup. Sound effort when fifth as beaten favourite in the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity. Beaten favourite again when second to Lila Emblem in G3 Shinzan Kinen and second to Lance Of Chaos in the G3 Churchill Downs Cup. Question mark over the 2400m, but then again his dam, a maiden, did place a couple of times at 2600m. 

16. Energico

Two from two and showing smart potential. Settled back on debut, shifted out in the straight, pushed out and quickened nicely past rivals to win by a length. Missed break next time but soon recovered: raced rail until switched off heels and taken wide 400m out; kept on smartly for little pressure and won comfortably in the end.    

17. Kalamatianos

Took three attempts to break his maiden and that came at 1800m, but followed up at start four with a closing win by a neck in the Koyamaki Sho at a mile. Closed again to finish second behind Masquerade Ball in the G3 Kyodo Tsushin Hai at 1800m on February 16.

18. Museum Mile

Runner-up to Admire Zoom in December’s G1 Asahi Hai Futurity over a mile in December. That came after he had broken his maiden second-up over 1800m and then scored over 2000m in the Kigiku Sho at Kyoto in November. Stepped out in the G2 Deep Impact Kinen over 2000m after a three-month break and finished fourth: caught flat-footed 600m out, wide progress there, bumped coming off turn and kept on, but passed late on by third-placed Alohi Alii. ∎

Idol Horse Expert Panel: David Morgan, Andrew Hawkins, Jack Dawling, Shuhei Uwabo, Masanobu Takahashi and Frank Chang.

Tokyo Yushun

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Asahi Hai Futurity

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Leading Contender

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