2025 Tokyo Yushun Power Rankings, May 15

The last of the Tokyo Yushun trials and qualifiers has been decided and Idol Horse’s Japan racing experts have considered the results, done some shuffling of the order and ranked the contenders for the 2025 Tokyo Yushun, with the Derby already looming large on June 1.

Museum Mile’s Satsuki Sho win under Joao Moreira still looks like being the surest form guide, and that means the likes of Croix Du Nord, Masquerade Ball and Satono Shining continue to rank highly in the quest to join stars like Deep Impact, Special Week, King Kamehameha, Orfevre, Contrail and Do Deuce as a Tokyo Yushun winner.

Of the latest ‘trial’ winners, Shohei was a convincing winner of the Kyoto Shimbun Hai and takes middling order in the rankings, while Readiness’ win in the listed Principal Stakes sees him leap into the list, too. 

The latest results pushed last year’s star juvenile Admire Zoom out of the rankings after a poor show behind Panja Tower in the G1 NHK Mile Cup, along with Magic Sands, G T Adamant, Toppi Born and King Quay. 

For now, our Tokyo Yushun Power Rankings provide a guide based on how highly our panel of Japan racing experts rates their chances of victory. At relevant points leading into the big race, our experts each rank the emerging Derby contenders one to 18. Their individual lists are used to calculate a top 18, in order. The experts will continue to track the horses and update lists at key times. 

1. Croix Du Nord

Croix Du Nord retains his top ranking despite defeat in the Satsuki Sho. He emerged as the pick of Japan’s 2024 juvenile crop when he won the G1 Hopeful Stakes over 2000m on December 28 and the form of that race looked good going into the first classic. That held true even though Croix Du Nord, the Satsuki Sho’s 1.5 favourite, was beaten into second place, ending his perfect record. The colt was rushed to press the lead on the home turn in an exposed four-wide berth, hit the front with the climbing Nakayama final furlong ahead of him, peaked on his effort, and was run down by the deeper-closing Museum Mile. Two horses in the last 15 years have won the Derby after placing second in the Satsuki Sho: Tastiera in 2023 and Makahiki in 2016.

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2. Masquerade Ball

A strong-closing run to finish third in the Satsuki Sho saw Masquerade Ball leap a few spots in the rankings last time around. That means the colt’s only poor run in five starts came when 11th behind Croix Du Nord in the Hopeful Stakes in December, and being a half-brother to the G1-placed mare Masked Diva, with three wins on the board, he is certainly looking like a serious protagonist. Since 2010, Do Deuce, Deep Brillante and Eishin Flash all won the Tokyo Yushun after placing third in the Satsuki Sho.

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3. Museum Mile

The Sunday Racing colt was at the foot of the rankings after his fourth in the G2 Deep Impact Kinen in March, but he shot up following his classy win in the Satsuki Sho. That confirmed the quality he had shown as a juvenile when second to Admire Zoom in the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity over a mile in December. He had previously broken his maiden second-up over 1800m and then scored over 2000m in the Kigiku Sho at Kyoto in November. His Deep Impact Kinen defeat came after a three-month break, he was caught flat-footed 600m out, had to make wide progress, was bumped coming off turn and kept on. Only the very best colts follow a Satsuki Sho win with Derby glory and to do that he must measure up to the likes of Contrail, Duramente, and Orfevre in recent times. Damian Lane has been booked to take the ride in the Tokyo Yushun, having won on Tastiera two years ago.

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4. Satono Shining

Satono Shining was second pick in the Satsuki Sho market but managed only fifth. The colt raced on the outer of midfield, was asked to work on the turn and then kept on solidly but without much dash as Museum Mile, Masquerade Ball and Giovanni all went past him. That was only his fourth start, having won his ‘Newcomer’ nicely as a juvenile, followed by a fine second in a Group 2 next start behind Croix Du Nord. He was impressive when a three-length winner of the G3 Kisaragi Sho in February, defeating among others the Asahi Hai Futurity third Lance Of Chaos and Kyoto Shimbun Hai winner Shohei.

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5. Fandom

A winner of all three starts to date, only one of our experts – Masanobu Takahashi – had him in their initial rankings list. After sweeping to a sensational victory in the G3 Mainichi Hai (1800m), though, he emerged as a big contender for the Tokyo Yushun. He missed the Satsuki Sho to point straight to the Derby and he will aim to emulate Shahryar in 2021 and Kizuna in 2013 as the most recent Mainichi Hai winners to land the Derby.

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6. Giovanni

Satono Shining’s stablemate Giovanni is one of the more experienced Derby prospects with a pair of wins either side of three second place runs, followed by a running-on fourth in the Satsuki Sho. His prior defeats came behind Eri King in the Nojigiku Stakes and the G3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes, and then he led the chase behind Croix Du Nord in the G1 Hopeful Stakes. He started 2025 with a Listed win over 2000m and after his Satsuki Sho effort he still looks a solid Derby type without giving the impression he will be top of the class.

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7. Eri King

Eri King dropped down after losing his unbeaten status in the Satsuki Sho. His previous form measured up closely to Croix Du Nord through the Hopeful Stakes runner-up Giovanni who he beat twice, as mentioned above. The son of Australian G1 winner Youngstar was first-up for the year in the Satsuki Sho and had a rough passage to the first turn, which lit him up. After settling mid-pack on the rail, he was shuffled back as the race shape shifted down the back stretch, and was tight for room in the home straight before making minor progress to finish 11th. He’s likely better than that, but in the last 15 years, the only horse to have come out of a similar Satsuki Sho defeat to win the Derby was Wagnerian, who was beaten by a similar margin when seventh in the first classic.

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8. Feiern Kranz

A springer into the Derby rankings after a close second behind Energico in the G2 Aoba Sho at the course and distance. The Sunday Racing colt won on debut and has since been on the fringes of his generation’s best form lines including third to Magic Sands in the G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes and fourth to Croix Du Nord in the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai as a juvenile. His one win from six does not look anything like a Tokyo Yushun-winning profile but he is worthy of a place in the line-up.

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9. Shohei

The son of Saturnalia secured an automatic berth in the Derby when he won the last of the recognised trials, the G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai over 2200m at Kyoto on May 10. That was his fourth career start and a smart effort under Yuga Kawada, drawing away to win by two and a half lengths from M’s, with Toppi Born and King Squall further back in the field and therefore dropping out of Tokyo Yushun reckoning. The Yasuo Tomomichi-trained colt was second on debut last November behind Liberty Island’s half-sister Madison Girl. He then won his maiden over 1800m at Kyoto in mid-December. First-up this season in February, Shohei was a promising fourth behind Satono Shining in the G3 Kisaragi Sho.

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10. M’s

The Yasotoshi Ikee-trained M’s chased home Shohei in the Kyoto Shimbu Hai at only his third start. The Duramente colt won his first two races, a 2000m Newcomer over 1800m at Chukyo in early December, and the Okanzakura Sho over 2200m at the same track on March 30, in which he drew three and a half lengths clear of the previous winner Jezero.

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11. Lila Emblem

Lila Emblem will go into the Derby pretty fresh off a break of a couple of months. After winning his Newcomer at Kyoto in late October, Lila Emblem wasn’t seen again until the G3 Shinzan Kinen at Chukyo on January 13. He didn’t disappoint, though, winning by two and a half lengths from the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes fifth Arte Veloce. He was sent out as an even-money favourite for the G3 Mainichi Hai at the end of March, but found little and disappointed in seventh.

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12. Piko Chan Black

Piko Chan Black’s Derby appeal took a knock with his last-place finish in the Satsuki Sho. He gave his young trainer his first Graded Stakes win in the G2 Spring Stakes in mid-March but after leading the field in the Satsuki Sho he was cooked by the home turn and faded out. He previously had smashed his rivals with a seven-length Newcomer win at Fukushima last July, placed second to Masquerade Ball in the Listed Ivy Stakes, then struggled in the Hopeful Stakes. 

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13. Faust Rasen

Another colt that sunk in the rankings after a moderate showing in the Satsuki Sho. That 15th in the classic was disappointing after his G2 Deep Impact Kinen over 2000m at Nakayama in early March, at odds of 16.9, which in turn had followed a good third to Croix Du Nord in the G1 Hopeful stakes at massive odds of 303.3.

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14. Panja Tower

Panja Tower’s win in the G1 NHK Mile Cup qualified him for the Derby and gave his owner plenty to think about. If he goes that route he will attempt to become the first horse to complete that double since Deep Sky in 2008 when both races were on the exact same dates as this year, May 11 and June 1. The Tower Of London colt followed a Newcomer win last September with victory in the G2 Keio Hai Nisai Stakes at 1400m. He was well beaten in the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes to end the year and was fourth in the G3 Falcon Stakes over 1400m in March.

UPDATE: Connections announced on Thursday morning that Panja Tower will not proceed to the Derby and will be saved for an autumn campaign.

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15. Readiness

Readiness has won two of three starts, his only blot being eighth place behind Faust Rasen in the G2 Deep Impact Kinen in early March. But that effort came only a month after he debuted with a Newcomer victory at Tokyo. The Mitsugu Kon-trained son of Suave Richard showed that he is progressing the right way with a smart success in the Listed Principal Stakes at Tokyo on May 4, a race that earned qualification to the Derby.

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16. Kalamatianos

Took three attempts to break his maiden and that came at 1800m, but followed up at start four with a closing win by a neck in the Koyamaki Sho at a mile. Closed again to finish second behind Masquerade Ball in the G3 Kyodo Tsushin Hai at 1800m on February 16 before placing 10th in the Satsuki Sho.

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17. Dragon Boost

The Screen Hero colt doesn’t have the look of a Derby winner but has enough prize money in the bank to have the option. His one from six record includes a second-up mile maiden win at Kyoto in October followed by second place in the Daily Hai Nisai Stakes and seventh place in the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes. Second this term to Nishino Agent in the G3 Keisei Hai before a last start 17th in the G1 Satsuki Sho.

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18. Nishino Agent

Elevated into the top 18 on Wednesday after Energico was withdrawn. Took three defeats to warm up before he opened his account at start four in an 1800m Nakayama maiden in December. Benefitted from that experience when pitched into Pattern company next time and defied big odds to win the G3 Keisei Hai over 2000m at Nakayama on January 19. That was a first Graded race win for his young trainer. Weakened out for 13th in the Satsuki Sho. ∎

Idol Horse Expert Panel: David Morgan, Andrew Hawkins, Jack Dawling, Shuhei Uwabo, Masanobu Takahashi and Frank Chang.