Hong Kong 2025-26 Season Preview: Horses

Which Non-Group 1 Winner Can Break Through At The Highest Level?

Jack Dawling: My Wish was arguably the unluckiest loser in the Hong Kong Derby in the past 20 years, but he can make amends at the top level this season after a promising fourth on his Group 1 debut in April’s Champions Mile. The Classic Mile winner clocked the season’s fastest final 200m sectional over Sha Tin’s 2000m course in the Derby, but he also ran from the 400m to the 200m marker quicker than any horse at Sha Tin over any distance all season – 10.33 seconds. For reference, Ka Ying Rising’s quickest time through the same furlong last term was 10.43 seconds.

Michael Cox: Cap Ferrat’s win in the 2025 BMW Hong Kong Derby had all the hallmarks of a ‘one-hit wonder’: a maiden victory at long odds, from an inside draw and by a narrow margin in a favourably run race. On that score he is by no means a sexy pick as a future Group 1 winner and there have been plenty of Derby winners that never won again. But Cap Ferrat has since shown he can measure up at top level and if Voyage Bubble sticks to a mile or heads abroad and Romantic Warrior fails to return from leg surgery, the quality of the 2000m Group 1s could fall away dramatically.

David Morgan: Packing Angel would be the pick based on his hat-trick of wins and close third in last year’s Derby, but it will pay to first see how he recovers from knee surgery before making lofty predictions. That leaves us looking at the similarly-owned Packing Hermod who shaped well when third in the Classic Mile, looked a non-stayer at 1800m in the Classic Cup, then bounced back with two 1400m Class 2 wins and a solid third in the G3 Premier Cup. He’s the type that could continue to progress after a summer break now that he is a race-hardened five-year-old.

Andrew Hawkins: Is it all too late now for Galaxy Patch to earn a Group 1 victory? It’s hard to believe that he hasn’t yet broken through at the top level but he is an enigma and he’s still proving a puzzle for trainer Pierre Ng. It seems that Ng has decided a mile is his best trip and he was second to Voyage Bubble in the G1 Stewards’ Cup at the distance. Dropping to 1400m for the Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup means a likely battle with Ka Ying Rising, so sticking to 1600m and hoping Voyage Bubble goes up in trip might be his best bet.

Which Horse Is Ready To Leap Up The Ratings This Season?

David Morgan: Bulb General can be the ratings-riser his trainer Jamie Richards is looking for through the early part of this season. The four-year-old debuted at Sha Tin in February when he was drawn widest, dropped in at the tail, then rattled down the home straight to take third. Bulb General was given five months between runs before returning in July for a Class 4 breakthrough at 1200m, quickening like a useful type to win comfortably. That took his rating to 64 and the Karaka Book 1 graduate has been kept in work throughout August. 

Jack Dawling: He may have failed to get off the mark after 13 attempts, but the Ricky Yiu-trained Etalon Or looks the type to get on a roll when he finally gets his head in front this season. The four-year-old gelding became accustomed to hitting the crossbar last term – finishing second on five occasions and filling the third-place spot three times – but showed plenty of progress in the process. He consistently ran on well from the rear of the field without finding the front and could surge above his current rating of 54.

Andrew Hawkins: Silvery Breeze was a potential Derby contender at one point last term but failed to qualify for the race. The back end of his season was one disaster after another – he fell in February, was withdrawn due to a blood abnormality in May and then struggled after a wide run in June. Natural progression during the off-season will hopefully see him strengthen up and he can make his mark in Class 3 – and eventually in Class 2 – between 1600m and 2000m.

Michael Cox: Not sure how high Invincible Ibis can fly but he is a multiple winner waiting to happen and is a big chance of swooping on an opening day victory. A sharp dirt trial showed that trainer Mark Newnham could switch to the all-weather track if he hits a ratings peak on turf.

Your ‘Way-Too-Early’ Hong Kong Derby Prediction?

Michael Cox: Veteran owner Tung Moon-fai has had two horses win the Hong Kong Derby lead-up, now known as the Hong Kong Classic Cup, but has come up short in the big one. Unique Jewellery was fourth in the 2009 Derby behind Collection and Sun Jewellery was seventh in Werther’s 2016 Derby. Could Sky Jewellery be the one? He has done everything right so far, winning three from five with a smooth style that should allow him to adapt to the tricky, stop-start tempo of Hong Kong’s two-turn, 2000m classic.

David Morgan: Danny Shum and Massive Sovereign’s Derby-winning owner Chan Kam-hung didn’t waste time in moving to purchase the G1 Irish Derby runner-up Serious Contender out of Ballydoyle this summer. Five weeks after that Classic effort, the Wootton Bassett colt was already on the ground in Hong Kong. Coolmore sell-ons to Hong Kong have often disappointed as Derby candidates but Serious Contender has only six runs in his legs, improved each time he ran, has as good European three-year-old form as any PP bought in recent years and should live up to his name.

Andrew Hawkins: Shanwah progressed in leaps and bounds late in his three-year-old season, winning the G2 Autumn Classic at Caulfield and the G2 Alister Clark Stakes at Moonee Valley before finishing third in the G1 ATC Australian Derby. He looks a fairly straightforward type, hardy, with an ability to put himself into races and accelerate away. They are all qualities that will make him a key Four-Year-Old Classic Series contender, particularly suited to the Hong Kong Derby.

Jack Dawling: Prominent owner Marc Chan is yet to taste success on the big stage in Hong Kong, but the former Ralph Beckett-trained Seraph Gabriel may be able to change that this season. The three-year-old son of Saxon Warrior reached a rating of 101 in Britain from five outings, the best of which came over the Hong Kong Derby distance of 2000m on quick ground at Royal Ascot. He also finished second to the promising Fifth Column, trained by John & Thady Gosden, on his penultimate start over 1600m. While he’ll likely begin his Hong Kong career on a tough enough rating for the David Eustace, his overseas form and pedigree – he’s a half-brother to a Group 3 winner over 2000m – gives the impression he can make his presence felt in the final leg of the Classic Series.

Which Hong Kong Horse Do You Want To See Head Overseas And In Which Race?

Andrew Hawkins: Voyage Bubble failed twice when taken abroad in 2024, in both the G1 Dubai Turf and the G1 Yasuda Kinen. The common factor? Both races were run counterclockwise and he had only raced clockwise. Given his dominance when stepped up in trip for his Hong Kong Triple Crown quest, it would be great to see him travel to Sydney – which, like Hong Kong, races clockwise – to tackle the G1 Ranvet Stakes and G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes, both at 2000m.

David Morgan: We know Ka Ying Rising is heading to Australia for the world’s richest sprint race, The Everest, but next summer I’d love to see him do something in the Silent Witness and Lord Kanaloa vein and take his impeccable sprinting form beyond its proven limits. Rather than watch him face a big field of (most likely) substandard European sprinters on an unfamiliar straight track at Ascot, let’s see him ship to Tokyo in June, stretch out to a mile and take a shot at creating a rare legend with a G1 Yasuda Kinen victory. Silent Witness couldn’t do it, Lord Kanaloa did, and a Ka Ying Rising win would be all the more incredible if it complemented an Everest triumph.

Jack Dawling: The ultimate wish is to see Ka Ying Rising hurtling down the Ascot straight in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, but it would be great if Galaxy Patch got his chance to travel overseas. After defeating Voyage Bubble in October’s Sha Tin Trophy, the quirky gelding failed to get his head in front for the rest of the reason. But he still showed his customary late burst over a mile and the addition of headgear may have eked out a little bit more when he was fifth in the Champions Mile. The Yasuda Kinen over a mile in June was on the table last year and it could be the race for him in 2026.

Michael Cox: Earlier this year John Size told the media ahead of the G1 Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai that he “would love to win a race overseas. We just keep trying.” Sadly, Howdeepisyourlove broke down in what was Size’s 14th race abroad as a Hong Kong trainer and the trainer’s fourth start in the Al Quoz alone. Helios Express –  placed seven straight times behind Ka Ying Rising last season before a Group 3 victory – is the perfect horse for Size to return to Meydan and get the Group 1 triumph the trainer deserves.

What Headline Would You Most Like To See This Season?

David Morgan: “Romantic Warrior Exacts Revenge In Saudi Cup Thriller”

Hong Kong’s brilliant champion was collared by Japan’s dirt track superstar Forever Young in an epic edition of the world’s richest race in February and since following that with a narrow second in the Dubai Duty Free, the veteran has spent his summer recovering from surgery to his near-fore fetlock.

Andrew Hawkins: “Golden Eagle Winner Given Classic Mile Berth”

There is a natural link between the Golden Eagle, for four-year-olds at 1500m, and the Classic Mile, for the same group of horses at 1600m three months later. While the Hong Kong Jockey Club might want to encourage local owners to buy the Golden Eagle winner rather than asking international owners to ship in, offering one berth – and one berth only – for an international horse in that race solely for the Golden Eagle winner might be a strong initiative long-term.

Michael Cox: “1400m Race For 3YOs Added To Champions Day”

FWD Champions Day in 2025 was the best since all three Group 1s were switched to the same day. Let’s add to the day by recruiting some three-year-olds from both hemispheres to take on the best of Hong Kong’s young horses.

Jack Dawling: “Manulife Million Challenge Scrapped In Favour Of Happy Valley Speed Series”

The mid-season challenge could be replaced with a simplified, easier to follow series revolving around speed over a specified distance. ∎

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