2026 Hong Kong Derby: Power Rankings
The Idol Horse experts rank the contenders for the 2026 BMW Hong Kong Derby in the first round of the Hong Kong Derby Power Rankings.
Each year a group of Hong Kong racing experts from the Idol Horse team rank their top 14 candidates for the BMW Hong Kong Derby, making adjustments as the big race gets closer.
With just over ten weeks before the 2026 edition on March 22, our team of experts have come up with the first list as the first leg of the Four-year-old Classic Series, the Hong Kong Classic Mile, looms on February 1.
This Sunday at Sha Tin could bring a major shake-up before then – in particular, a 1600m Class 3 provides a final chance for horses to push claims or build fitness for the Classic Mile.
The 2026 Derby looks wide open after leading candidates Bulb General, Sky Jewellery and Massive Contender were all sidelined.
Here are the horses our experts believe are in contention for the race that every Hong Kong owner, trainer and jockey wants to win most.
1. Invincible Ibis
Trainer: Mark Newnham | Rating: 74 | Record: 6:3-2-1
Invincible Ibis has emerged as the early market leader for the Classic Series, a fast-progressing four-year-old whose profile mirrors one of Newnham’s recent stars. The trainer has repeatedly likened him to 2025 Classic Mile winner and Derby runner-up My Wish, with the familiar caveat that improvement will determine how far he goes. The raw material is there: he settles, he finishes and he is moving quickly through the grades.
Invincible Ibis heads into Sunday’s Class 3 mile for four-year-olds as a clear point of reference for the division, with Hugh Bowman riding.
2. Little Paradise
Trainer: Jimmy Ting |Rating: 87 | Record: 7:4-1-1
Every Hong Kong Derby has a human story and Little Paradise gives Jimmy Ting a genuine chance to write one. A rare headline horse for a small stable, Little Paradise has surged from Class 4 to Class 2 with four wins from seven starts, announcing himself as a legitimate Classic Mile contender. Sunday’s Class 2 over 1400 metres, with Zac Purton aboard, is another key stepping stone.
Ting believes the Toronado gelding’s relaxed temperament and pedigree give him scope to stretch beyond a mile, even if the Derby’s 2000 metres remains a query. Purton has been bullish about the horse’s attitude and physical scope and with the Classic Series thinned by injury and attrition, Little Paradise looks to have arrived at exactly the right moment to carry both stable and owner ambitions deep into February and March.
3. Sagacious Life
Previous Name: Navio Fantasma
Traainer: Pierre Ng | Rating: 97 | HK Record: 3:2-0-0
Sagacious Life has stamped himself as the pole sitter for the Four-Year-Old Classic Series – at least by rating – with his top-weight Class 2 victory at Sha Tin confirming both his rating strength and his adaptability to Hong Kong racing. A Brazilian Group 1 Derby winner over 2400 metres, he brings a blend of class and stamina. But it is the rapid acclimatisation that matters most and the chestnut has hit his stride from the off, showing that he has essential speed to go with his proven stamina.
4. Numbers
Previous Name: King Of Thunder
Trainer: Frankie Lor | Rating: 90 | HK Record: 2:1-0-1
Numbers occupies an important place on this list because he answers a question many others won’t face until Derby day itself: the trip. Runner-up in the 2025 Queensland Derby over 2400 metres, the Australian import brings genuine staying credentials to a series often dominated by horses trying to stretch their limits. A keen-going front-runner, he overraced in the lead on his Happy Valley debut, when third over 1800m, but made all for victory next time at the Derby distance of 2000 metres. That ability to lead and then keep finding down the home straight could prove to be a strong asset come late March.
5. Dazzling Fit
Trainer: David Eustace | Rating: 75 | Record: 8:3-1-1
Arguably unlucky to be this far down the rankings, Dazzling Fit started ahead of Invincible Ibis in the betting last time and was only outsprinted late on despite giving weight. He may lack the sharp turn-of-foot of some rivals, but there is toughness and tenacity in his profile. More grinder than flash, but already battle hardened to Hong Kong racing and not easily dismissed.
6. Top Dragon
Top Dragon is beginning to find consistency in his four-year-old season and took a solid step forward when third behind Sagacious Life at his first attempt over 1600 metres last start. Zac Purton is monitoring him closely as one of several options for the Derby. The query is whether, with 11 Hong Kong starts already on the clock, he has the same upside as some less-exposed rivals.
Trainer: Chris So | Rating: 81 | Record: 11:3-3-1
7. Beauty Bolt
Previous Name: Thunder Song
Trainer: Tony Cruz | Rating: 82 | Record: 6:2-2-1
A former Joseph O’Brien-trained runner who won his sole start in Ireland easily, Beauty Bolt has been consistent in Hong Kong. Narrowly beaten by Dazzling Fit at a mile last start, he remains firmly in the Classic conversation, with Zac Purton booked to ride him again this Sunday in the Class 3 mile for four-year-olds. Reliable and professional, but still searching for a decisive breakout performance that could suggest he might hit the rating required to win a four-year-old feature.
8. Public Attention
Previous Name: Public Attention
Trainer: David Hayes | Rating: 83 | HK Record: 2:0-1-1
Public Attention’s 1200m Group 3 win in the Eskimo Prince Stakes at Randwick and his fifth in the G1 Caulfield Guineas brings genuine Australian black-type form into the series. He has shaped well in early Hong Kong runs and gets a chance to declare himself when he contests Sunday’s 1400m Class 2. A sleeper with a profile that suggests he could move quickly up the rankings. Still a colt.
9. Helene Supafeeling
Previous Name: Port Light
Trainer: David Eustace | Rating: 79 | HK Record: 1:1-0-0
Helene Supafeeling arrives at this weekend’s Classic Mile lead-up with freshness, a timely Hong Kong win already on the board, and seemingly some upside. He qualified for export with a dominant all-weather performance overseas and while well-beaten at Listed level at Newmarket, that was a strong race, which has produced winners at Group 2 level, while the winner, Cosmic Year, went on to be runner-up in the G1 Irish 2,000 Guineas.
The gelding has acclimatised quickly since arriving – often the key separator in this series – and David Eustace has timed his preparation neatly, using the Class 3 handicap on HKIR day in mid December, a race that traditionally punches above its weight, as a springboard into the Classic Series.
10. Fit For Beauty
Trainer: John Size | Rating: 65 | Record: 5:2-1-0
Fit For Beauty remains a longer-term project but gets the chance to push his rating higher in Sunday’s four-year-old Class 3. History is on his side – Beauty Alliance was still in Class 4 in March before making the 2025 Derby field. Upside, rather than urgency, defines his campaign.
11. Winfield
Previous Name: Opazo
Trainer: Mark Newnham | Rating: 83 | HK Record: 1:0-0-0
Winfield sits in the middle ground of the Classic Series conversation. He was top-class in Brazil, winning two legs of the Sao Paulo Triple Crown, with Sagacious Life second both times. But after leading the field on debut, only to fade out to ninth, he needs a performance that truly elevates him above the pack. He has the rating and stable backing to stay in the mix. The next run will be telling as to whether he is a genuine Derby type or if his best days are behind him in Brazil.
12. Windlord
Previous Name: Windlord
Trainer: Cody Mo | Rating: 80 | HK Record: 1:0-0-0
Windlord looks a solid type judging by his barrier trials and a first-up fifth over a mile behind Sagacious Life. Highly-tried in Europe by trainer Andrew Balding, placing in the G2 Beresford Stakes in Ireland and finishing down the field in the G1 Irish 2,000 Guineas and G1 St James’s Palace Stakes. Has proven his stamina already with a Listed win at around 2000 metres and placing third in a mile and a half Group 3, but needs to show he has pace too if he’s to climb the Derby rankings.
13. Circuit Grand Slam
Previous Name: Tunbridge Wells
Trainer: Manfred Man | Rating: 80 | HK Record: 3:1-0-1
Circuit Grand Slam sits closer to the unlikely end of the spectrum, having never raced beyond 1200 metres in three starts for Aidan O’Brien as a juvenile or in three runs since arriving in Hong Kong. Sunday’s 1400-metre assignment is a key test for this well-bred gelding from a top-class, precocious and speedy family. He needs to show both stamina and progression to justify a Classic Mile start.
14. Fortune Boy
Trainer: David Hayes | Rating: 69 | Record: 12:3-1-2
David Hayes remains bullish about Fortune Boy, a young stayer who steps out in Sunday’s Class 3 over 1800 metres with Zac Purton aboard. The upside question looms large after 12 starts in Hong Kong, but his racing pattern suggests stretching beyond a mile will suit. If he improves again, he may yet force his way into calculations.
